We need a plan B for no vaccine. - Page 40 - Airline Pilot Central Forums

#391

Excargodog , 09-11-2020 09:37 AM

Perennial Reserve

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo

This doesn’t matter because those being polled
aren’t the ones who will be the first offered the vaccine.

Luckily medical personal will probably be one of the first offered the vaccine and I’m willing to bet a community that is supported by science, and not spin, will have high numbers of takers vs that poll. I also am willing to bet the elderly won’t be that picky when offered a vaccine early on. So once these groups take the vaccine, the average Joe 6 pack will be more open to getting it as well, as some time has passed and they have had some takers already.

Current elderly rates for pneumococcus and shingles vaccines, recommended for elderly people, are:

Quote:
Pneumococcal vaccination increased 3.3 percentage points to 66.9% among adults ≥ 65 years. Vaccination of adults 19 years and older with tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) increased by 3.4 percentage points to 26.6% overall.Feb 8, 2018

Quote:
The report found that vaccination among adults age 60 and older increased from 6.7% in 2008 to 34.5% in 2018.

“Among adults aged 60 and over, shingles vaccination has increased since 2008, however, disparities in receipt of this vaccination still remain,” lead author Emily Terlizzi, MPH, from the National Center for Health Statistics, told Contagion®.

The rates of vaccination were similar among women (35.4%) and men (33.5%), but differences were notable among white adults (38.6), Black adults (18.8%) and Hispanic adults (19.5%).

“I was surprised to see that although the percentage who had ever received a shingles vaccine among women aged 60 and over was higher than that among men in this age group, this difference was not statistically significant,” Terlizzi said.

Terlizzi wrote the brief with Lindsey I. Black, MPH.

The vaccine was recommended for all adults age 60 and older until 2017, when the recommendation changed to include adults age 50 and older.

#392

Excargodog , 09-11-2020 10:28 AM

Perennial Reserve

Quote:
Now, Gilbert’s, and the world’s, hopes are coming back down to earth, with the news that AstraZeneca paused Phase III trials after one participant in Britain showed symptoms consistent with transverse myelitis, a rare neurological disease caused by inflammation of the spinal cord. Obstacles like this one are not unexpected in vaccine development, experts say. The fact that AstraZeneca is pausing trials to investigate, they point out, is a good thing—a signal that that system is working as it should, that drug companies are taking safety seriously, that there are some scientific norms that politics hasn’t trampled.

But the interruption is also a reminder that no amount of hype—from the endless media headlines, from politicians on Twitter, from the vaccine scientists themselves—is going to save the world from the deadliest pathogen in a century. This week’s news is a cautionary note for those who think a magic bullet might be around the corner—or who think that it might be worth slashing safety protocols to get one.

In fact, the Oxford/AstraZeneca group’s self-assurance raised some eyebrows right from the start.=12pt“I felt this way about a number of the companies,” says Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and co-creator of a rotavirus vaccine. “They would do small Phase I trials, basically dose-ranging trials, and then talk about how they could make tens of millions of doses.”
HEALTH CARE
Vaccine-makers promise safety amid shaky public confidence in Covid developments
BY SARAH OWERMOHLE
“How about a little humility?” he thought.

Gilbert’s prediction reflected more “pride than reality,” says Michael Kinch, director of the Centers for Research Innovation in Biotechnology and Drug Discovery at Washington University in St. Louis. “The reality is that developing a vaccine … is generally quite challenging. Oftentimes, you don’t see the big problems coming.”

This week, that reality arrived for the Oxford vaccine. An independent committee must now determine whether the illness is directly linked to the vaccine or not—both outcomes are possible. If the two are related, that will likely be the end of this vaccine. If not, the trial will likely resume after several weeks.

The hitch is also a reminder that a lot of Covid-19 science is uncharted territory. “We don’t have much experience with these types of vaccines,” says Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Adenovirus vectored vaccines, like Oxford’s, are relatively new, and mRNA vaccines—like those developed by Moderna and Pfizer—have never been used before in humans

.“Let’s be clear: No one knows anything” about the specifics of the vaccine timeline right now, says Zeke Emanuel, former Obama adviser and chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. “We’re all bull****ting.”

#393

rickair7777 , 09-11-2020 10:46 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

NOT COVID-19, but COVID-19s ‘big brother.’

This is all lab stuff, no SARS vaccine was approved, or even had formal human trials.

You're talking about some kid's balsa-wood model airplane, society is building Saturn-V's for Covid.

#394

rickair7777 , 09-11-2020 10:49 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

He's political, his motives are suspect (I tune out the guidance of any politician either way on this subject).

#395

rickair7777 , 09-11-2020 10:54 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

We still need a plan B, because as much as we would all love to have one, there is absolutely no guarantee that a safe and effective vaccine will EVER be produced. I’ll concede the odds favor it - eventually - but eventually might be a long long time.

Plan B is domestic travel industry is down 50% indefinitely, international maybe 80%. Greta prays for this every night at bedtime.

A really bullet-proof treatment would also make a big dent in the problem, but plenty of folks would still prefer not to get covid in the first place.

#396

rickair7777 , 09-11-2020 11:01 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo

This doesn’t matter because those being polled
aren’t the ones who will be the first offered the vaccine.

Luckily medical personal will probably be one of the first offered the vaccine and I’m willing to bet a community that is supported by science, and not spin, will have high numbers of takers vs that poll. I also am willing to bet the elderly won’t be that picky when offered a vaccine early on. So once these groups take the vaccine, the average Joe 6 pack will be more open to getting it as well, as some time has passed and they have had some takers already.

It won't be offered, it will be mandatory for the initial recipients. So there will be plenty of guinea pigs in early phase-4. Probably followed in short order by all of us crew.

#397

CincoDeMayo , 09-11-2020 11:15 AM

That/It/Thang

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

It won't be offered, it will be mandatory for the initial recipients. So there will be plenty of guinea pigs in early phase-4. Probably followed in short order by all of us crew.

Exactly my point, you just said it better. My guess is like everything on a government level, there will be more people wanting the vaccine than what the government can administer in relation to initial demand. PBE supply, test availability, lab turnaround, and school openings; A few examples that everything the government has touched to far has been a miles behind the readiness of what they needed to be. So I suspect the supply chain will not be any different, even with the current “at risk” production they are undertaking.

#398

CincoDeMayo , 09-11-2020 11:19 AM

That/It/Thang

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

Plan B is domestic travel industry is down 50% indefinitely, international maybe 80%. Greta prays for this every night at bedtime.

A really bullet-proof treatment would also make a big dent in the problem, but plenty of folks would still prefer not to get covid in the first place.

How dare you!

#399

Excargodog , 09-11-2020 11:31 AM

Perennial Reserve

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

This is all lab stuff, no SARS vaccine was approved, or even had formal human trials.

You're talking about some kid's balsa-wood model airplane, society is building Saturn-V's for Covid.

We are talking a basic animal study with the closest related viral pathogen to COVID-19 that occurred a mere eight years ago that demonstrated a serious potential hazard. It may or may not apply to COVID-19 or to humans, but it is certainly representative of problems any vaccine may face.

And Saturn V? Really?

You are showing your age Rick. Last Saturn V flight was a Skylab mission 47 years ago. Most of the kids reading this weren’t even a glint in their old man’s eye back then...

#400

rickair7777 , 09-11-2020 11:33 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

You are showing your age Rick. Last Saturn V flight was a Skylab mission 47 years ago. Most of the kids reading this weren’t even a glint in their old man’s eye back then...

Hopefully everyone on these forums gets the reference. I'd be concerned about a professional pilot, of any age, who didn't.