TSA Numbers

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  #151  
senecacaptain , 08-05-2020 08:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rickair7777

If you must look at daily trends, better off comparing the same weekday of the same week last year.
We are doing that, are we not ?
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  #152  
senecacaptain , 08-05-2020 08:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Business travel maybe. But overall travel is normally down by mid Sep. College kids have travelled to school, younger kids are back in school so family vacations are done. Vacation + college travel drives a lot of Aug/early Sep travel. Makes sense that biz travelers might avoid the summer rush if they can... I actually recall annual corporate conventions and seminars being in the fall (not the consumer conventions).

Oct - mid Nov are normally pretty slow overall. Mid Jan - Feb are slowest months overall.
Maybe for leisure travel, but business travel seems to be highest Sept to Nov.

Hertz rental car claims October is busiest for them: https://www.travelmarketreport.com/a...s-Travel-Month

Concur, a travel management company, trends:

Quote:
By contrast, the weeks with the highest above-average levels of business trips came from early September through early November. Looking at full months rather than weeks, July was the slowest month for company trips, while October and November were the busiest.
link: https://travelskills.com/2017/10/31/...usiness-trips/
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  #153  
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Excargodog , 08-05-2020 10:45 AM
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This is only monthly data...
...and they don’t update it very often but it does provide a 2019 baseline of sorts...



What it doesn’t tell is how much of that domestic travel is really feeder for getting international travelers to their departure hub. The summer May-Aug seasonal trend is apparent though.
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  #154  
itsmytime , 08-05-2020 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
Maybe for leisure travel, but business travel seems to be highest Sept to Nov.

Hertz rental car claims October is busiest for them: https://www.travelmarketreport.com/a...s-Travel-Month

Concur, a travel management company, trends:



link: https://travelskills.com/2017/10/31/...usiness-trips/
makes sense. Companies are trying to get the last trips in, and loose ends tied up before the end of the year, and the holidays start.
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  #155  
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bradthepilot , 08-05-2020 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rickair7777
If it's year over year, Aug 4 was a Sunday last year. Sundays = busy, Tuesdays = not busy. So apples to oranges.

If you must look at daily trends, better off comparing the same weekday of the same week last year.
The TSA claims the data is offset to match up on weekdays, so it should be same day of week for their 2019 and 2020 data.
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  #156  
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mrfishy , 08-05-2020 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
It is a trend. Up(ish).

2nd straight Tuesday that % of last year moved very slightly up compared to same day last week. We have been in the 21-22% range over the past 4 Tuesdays. How is this 22.7% an anomaly? It’s exactly what the trend has been.
fear mongering

TSA numbers will pop towards the end of this week and into the weekend. 800k+ easy, more likely 850~ this weekend
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  #157  
senecacaptain , 08-05-2020 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfishy
fear mongering

TSA numbers will pop towards the end of this week and into the weekend. 800k+ easy, more likely 850~ this weekend
fear mongering by who? The TSA?

the numbers are the numbers. So is the % of last year. "2019 was a gangbusters travel year"

OK great, give me 60% of 2019 levels on a consistent basis and maybe we pull thru this
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mrfishy , 08-05-2020 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
fear mongering by who? The TSA?

the numbers are the numbers. So is the % of last year. "2019 was a gangbusters travel year"

OK great, give me 60% of 2019 levels on a consistent basis and maybe we pull thru this
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Ouch. Let’s hope it’s an anomaly and not the start of a trend.

that is the fear mongering I’m talking about. The numbers are literally up week over week, the % of 2019 is up week over week. The amount of passengers has dipped every single Tuesday since the beginning of air travel, why this is suddenly an anomaly is clear fear mongering. No idea what the motives are behind it.
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pangolin , 08-05-2020 06:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfishy
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Ouch. Let’s hope it’s an anomaly and not the start of a trend.

that is the fear mongering I’m talking about. The numbers are literally up week over week, the % of 2019 is up week over week. The amount of passengers has dipped every single Tuesday since the beginning of air travel, why this is suddenly an anomaly is clear fear mongering. No idea what the motives are behind it.
The numbers are WoW on the same day of the week so Tuesday being normally down should not be down week over week.
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Freighthotdog , 08-05-2020 06:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfishy
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Ouch. Let’s hope it’s an anomaly and not the start of a trend.

that is the fear mongering I’m talking about. The numbers are literally up week over week, the % of 2019 is up week over week. The amount of passengers has dipped every single Tuesday since the beginning of air travel, why this is suddenly an anomaly is clear fear mongering. No idea what the motives are behind it.
AA contributes to 40% of the TSA Numbers, and Tuesday so happens to be the slowest day for AA. Look back in April and June. AA had 25 departures or less at some of their hubs on Tuesday’s and Saturday’s, that’ll explain it
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