AYLflyer

I originally said back in May I think we'd break 1 mil over the Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad that I was wrong and that we broke it earlier.

That said, I think with the recent uptick in cases/hospitalizations in many states, that we will be facing fewer travelers once again, and I don't think we'll see the amount of travelers we were expecting by Thanksgiving,

WhiskeyDelta

I’ll say it again and I know I’m not the only one. Cases are not important any more. Deaths and to a lesser degree hospitalizations are what matter. Those are not increasing anywhere close to the same rate as cases (on a national level). This wave began 5-6 weeks ago and now the media suddenly starts covering it? Sorry but the give a crap meters for millions of Americans have been pegged for a long time and many more get added every day.

We went through the summer spike without a meaningful increase in either of those all the while airline pax numbers were steadily increasing. Lockdowns aren’t politically possible any more. All that can be done are travel restrictions and those are largely unchanged from the deep blue states that started them in the spring. Red states most likely won’t play that game. So, I’m saying I think the status quo stays the same and as long as deaths don’t quickly increase to mirror the charted spike in cases we will keep moving closer to a vaccine without a huge decrease in pax traffic.

Oma4545

It’s all irrelevant with cities beginning to issue stay at home orders again along with closing businesses. Denver is about to do it.

senecacaptain

as I have said before, it all about Karen and her husband Kevin. and whatever the show The View instructs them to do.

A bunch of pilots who understand risk assessment, logic, and objective decisions is not representative of the flying public

may the Force be with you

Hedley

That’s exactly why the recovery will be slow. Proving that flying is safe is irrelevant when there is nowhere to go. Until there is a widely distributed and effective vaccine, along with therapeutics, the COVID restrictions will remain and people will either be unwilling or unable to travel. Kirby’s prediction that demand will plateau around 50% until that happens may be overly optimistic. What demand is there, is also low yielding leisure travel and not the business customers who typically pay the bills. This is going to take a while.

BrazilBusDriver

I don't disagree with the central thesis of your argument, but I'll say that hospitalizations *do especially* matter to passenger airline employees because when ICU beds run out, state and local politicians tend to restrict hours or even the opening of businesses that leisure travelers patronize when they travel. Additionally, when cases rise, businesses tend to think it makes less sense to send their folks on travel in the great big 'win business-maybe lose key workers' risk-reward calculus.

There's a lot of hate for the media, but my personal take is that our calibration of cases and resultant hospitalizations/deaths is wildly off because we never had any read on the true number of cases in NY, NJ, and CT in the spring. The media may be alarmist, but the media is covering this thing because ICU beds are running out in places (cough, El Paso, cough - wait, is that COVID, allergies, or just another cold my kids gave me now that school's open?). Even if they stopped, this would still be happening, and if we allow exponential growth, we can all kiss the leisure travel rebound goodbye. ICUs being full due to some weird new pneumonia would be news even without NBC, CBS, and ABC. Eventually even Sputnik- erm OANN - would have to cover US hospitals rationing care to pneumonia patients...it's great propaganda.

CAirBear

Flew a 321 last night, full boat (no pun) with a jump seater to FLL. At the beach earlier. FL Boat show begins tomorrow. Busy. Hotel is lively. Airport last night was a zoo.

BrazilBusDriver

I'm with you. Live in FL. October outdoor dining is great when the sun goes down or before noon (damned record 90+ highs). I hope it keeps up and I hope some measure of herd immunity keeps things lower-ish in the Sunshine State since we had a helluva time in June and July. But I suspect we'll begin to import more infections soon, and while I'd guess we'll lag the national trend, there's too many here that haven't had it to escape gravity.

I would love to be wrong and will gladly accept my APC "i told you so's" if that comes to pass. Hell, I'll celebrate with you.

TransWorld

Summary:

1. New cases from testing not key relevance.

2. New deaths is relevant.

3. Hospitalization rates is relevant,.

4. To some extent, survival rate is relevant.

5. Politics, news media, and gamesmanship is very relevant.

emersonbiguns

Hmmmmm, I wonder if they're related.....?



Hmmmmm, that's the same media that covers nothing BUT Covid? And now you're asking why they didn't give you more Covid, earlier?