the stock market LEADS the economy. If the market is rallying (going up), the economy is recovering or getting better.

If the market is tanking, the economy is starting to deteriorate.

Wow. Okay. I will defer to your clear expertise and laconic analysis. Thank you.

Seneca is right.

I’m willing to bet you went over logistics in commerce. You are correct that this country survived without aviation 100 years ago. Times have changed ,this country could not make it economically without aviation. We also won wars with just muskets, try having a military armed that what way now.


Times have changed in the last 200 years .

Well, let's see then...
February 2020, major indices were at or near all-time highs. Greatest economy ever and all!

Then corona hit, markets crashed, economy (as measured by GDP contraction) recessed.

Markets climbed, economy recessed more.

Markets kept climbing, economy depressed.

Markets kept climbing, economy still depressed.

So here we are now, indices are near or above all time highs! GDP growth and employment are at historic lows.

What I am gleaning from your statement of fact is the economy is in the exact or better condition than it was in February.

The market (especially post-GFC) has very little correlation to to the real-time, near-term "economy."

I absolutely agree that times have changed. That’s an obvious one.

So, since you have stated rather definitively that this country could not make it without aviation I respectfully ask that you cite your source.

I do not argue that without aviation, the loss of jobs would be a substantial blow to the economy. However if I understand you correctly then what you are saying is if aviation ceased to exist then the United States would economy would cease to exist (could not make it). That sounds very far fetched to me. So please provide a credible source and I will happily read it.

I am guessing your joking .

the economy is improving. the markets have already improved, and continue to do so.

the markets lead the economy. We also saw this in 2007-2009 when the markets started to deteriorate as early as 2006 but every Tom Dick and Harry were buying real estate investment DVD's from late night TV ads and deciding to become real estate millionaires via easy mortgages and lending. However the stock markets were starting to die off in mid-2006.

The stock markets are at or near ALL-TIME HIGHS! That is my point. The current markets are merely a function of near zero interest rates and money creation by the Fed. Precisely why Gold is taking off (as a hedge against this inflation).

What evidence do you possess of an improving economy? I cannot even see even any anecdotal evidence in my town, state, or during my travels.

The 200 DMA of the Dow and S&P were both positive the entire year of 2006 and 2007. In fact, even the 50 DMA was positive most of the same time frame. The 200-day didn't turn negative until Jan 2008. How is that even kind of "dying off?"

In practice, the stock market should be an indicator of our country's economic performance, but it has been so distorted by fiscal and monetary policy decisions that it has been reduced to merely a casino...and a roulette table at that.