GK hints at layoffs in 2021. (Aug 8th CBS)
08-10-2020, 01:11 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,445
Originally Posted by EngineOut
What evidence do you possess of an improving economy? I cannot even see even any anecdotal evidence in my town, state, or during my travels.
The 200 DMA of the Dow and S&P were both positive the entire year of 2006 and 2007. In fact, even the 50 DMA was positive most of the same time frame. The 200-day didn't turn negative until Jan 2008. How is that even kind of "dying off?"
In practice, the stock market should be an indicator of our country's economic performance, but it has been so distorted by fiscal and monetary policy decisions that it has been reduced to merely a casino...and a roulette table at that.
The 200 DMA of the Dow and S&P were both positive the entire year of 2006 and 2007. In fact, even the 50 DMA was positive most of the same time frame. The 200-day didn't turn negative until Jan 2008. How is that even kind of "dying off?"
In practice, the stock market should be an indicator of our country's economic performance, but it has been so distorted by fiscal and monetary policy decisions that it has been reduced to merely a casino...and a roulette table at that.
I agree...sort of.
The stock market is a barometer of investor emotion. Right now, the fed has propped it up through stimulus by printing money. So yeah, it isn't a real leading indicator of the economy like it traditionally is.
Once there is a vaccine or the virus subsides, there will be a recovery. Until then, we are just kidding ourselves. Smart money right now is on fed policy keeping things in "ground idle" until that time comes. If the economy is allowed to go into free fall like it did in the 2008 recession, the recovery will be long and painful. Take politics out of it completely, 9/10 economists agree...the carpet bombing stimulus strategy is the smartest and most compassionate policy. We as a country totally failed on that in the last downturn.
If the virus rages on past Winter with no end in sight, there will be a market crash and economic calamity unlike any in history. That being said, I am staying in the market just like I did after the March crash. At this point, it's that or buy gold and horde supplies.
08-10-2020, 03:59 PM
#33
Swimmin' in da pool
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 444
Originally Posted by barabek
Every single passenger airline in this country will furlough sooner or later. Those who think otherwise are living in denial. I'm shocked at how many people I work with refuse to comprehend the seriousness of the situation.
The above, combined with the end of highly contentious election year politics (ugh) could conceivably lead a turnaround early to mid 2021. How much and how fast is anyone's guess, but even as a devout pessimist, I'm still confident things will look a whole lot different this time next year.
Reputation aside, it would be 2022 before GK would start recouping the costs of a furlough (~1 year). Yesterday was the first time since COVID that TSA travel stats broke the 800K mark (832k).
Finally, to say "every passenger airline" would assume some airlines won't profit from the misfortune/demise of others. It's happened before.
Anyone's guess at this point.
Last edited by dawgdriver; 08-10-2020 at 04:17 PM.
08-10-2020, 04:59 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,256
Originally Posted by EngineOut
The stock markets are at or near ALL-TIME HIGHS! That is my point. The current markets are merely a function of near zero interest rates and money creation by the Fed. Precisely why Gold is taking off (as a hedge against this inflation).
What evidence do you possess of an improving economy? I cannot even see even any anecdotal evidence in my town, state, or during my travels.
The 200 DMA of the Dow and S&P were both positive the entire year of 2006 and 2007. In fact, even the 50 DMA was positive most of the same time frame. The 200-day didn't turn negative until Jan 2008. How is that even kind of "dying off?"
In practice, the stock market should be an indicator of our country's economic performance, but it has been so distorted by fiscal and monetary policy decisions that it has been reduced to merely a casino...and a roulette table at that.
What evidence do you possess of an improving economy? I cannot even see even any anecdotal evidence in my town, state, or during my travels.
The 200 DMA of the Dow and S&P were both positive the entire year of 2006 and 2007. In fact, even the 50 DMA was positive most of the same time frame. The 200-day didn't turn negative until Jan 2008. How is that even kind of "dying off?"
In practice, the stock market should be an indicator of our country's economic performance, but it has been so distorted by fiscal and monetary policy decisions that it has been reduced to merely a casino...and a roulette table at that.
08-10-2020, 06:37 PM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 224
Ha, “experts”. We (the public) have not gotten any straight information regarding the “virus”. I don’t know anyone, or know anyone who knows anyone who died from the virus. I understand people are dying, but in the beginning we were led to believe this was a killer, 1 in 10 may die. They did not know, and just ran with a worst case scenario. People are all out of faith in the “experts”. People want to go to Disney, employees want there “business trip” to Vegas, they want to go on a vacation, etc.
My comments on the interview. What was GK suppose to say? We don’t need the money? Ah, we are good to go, sorry for the first inconvenience. Of course he want to get a piece of the pie, the competition is. Look at what SWA does, not what is said. Generous VSP and EXTO programs, leveraging to get cash in hand. They are accumulating a war chest to pounce on the remnants or be Johnny on the spot in new markets. SWA is nimble, creative, and can steer the ship on a dime if need be.
My comments on the interview. What was GK suppose to say? We don’t need the money? Ah, we are good to go, sorry for the first inconvenience. Of course he want to get a piece of the pie, the competition is. Look at what SWA does, not what is said. Generous VSP and EXTO programs, leveraging to get cash in hand. They are accumulating a war chest to pounce on the remnants or be Johnny on the spot in new markets. SWA is nimble, creative, and can steer the ship on a dime if need be.
08-11-2020, 07:21 AM
#37
On Reserve
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: Why don't you have a seat right over there.
Posts: 14
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
the stock market LEADS the economy. If the market is rallying (going up), the economy is recovering or getting better.
If the market is tanking, the economy is starting to deteriorate.
If the market is tanking, the economy is starting to deteriorate.
08-12-2020, 08:49 AM
#38
On Reserve
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by ChrisHansen
Stock market means nothing, economy is in shambles. It should be in the low teens to represent the current situation. If you have any other questions for me please ask.
I have a few good friends that we are open about our 401k savings. One who really understands this stuff being a finance guy.
None of us have heard of anything reasonable to explain the market. Except hang on! The next year or so is going to be a bumpy ride. But America is always a good, long term investment.
08-12-2020, 06:54 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: 737 LEFT SEAT
Posts: 136
short and sweet
Originally Posted by Zard
The stock market is just a graph of how happy and optimistic richish people are.
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