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Originally Posted by DETSports
Over/Under on how many UNAs are saved from the VEOP numbers pre-CARES 2 if it happens? I’ll go with about 1,100 or so. Hoping ALPA can come through with something hopefully early this week to save everyone.
Some say 0, some say 1,000. I’ll go with the middle, 500 or so. I base that on a few metrics. I looked back at some of the email BS and JL sent out and came across one where it was mentioned we were over staffed by 2.5 to 3.5k pilots. This kind of goes in line with the shrinking of the airline 20-40%. Their best case scenario without the VEOP was we need to furlough 2.5k and worst case 3.5k.
I think their forecast for summer of 21 is worse than initially predicted. Then there is the training churn, how do they fit the recalls for 2022 back in the mix when there’s a lot of training already going to be happening all next year. I think this kind of limits them on how deep they can cut if they want to hold to their 2-3 year recovery plan.
One more point to add, if they plan on cutting all UNAs, that means we’re at their worst case forecast and I wouldn’t be surprised if they line up more pilots to go UNA. I don’t think we are at this level yet. Just IMO. Take it with a grain of salt.