The FlightAware track log shows an 1125 vvi up from 1600' to 2100' just before impact. Probably an anomaly..

Blancolirio update...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRVqg-pCb6o


Meanwhile, Plane&Pilot reports the P-63 *might* have hit a small drone, although the video authenticity is not assured...

https://www.planeandpilotmag.com/new...-path-of-p-63/

The preliminary report does not look good for the Air Boss, or WOD ops in general.

The test overlayed on the video in the second link suggests that the P63 pilot is attempting to "restart his engine" a second after an alleged "drone" encounter. Seems an ignorant statement to make, and more than a bit of wild speculation. It would be interesting if the air boss and everyone involved in that show-center operation, including the thousands in attendance, failed to see or report the "drone," but a guy in a parking lot shooting pictures with his cellphone, did.

Fortunately, Juan is on the scene to save us (and the NTSB) from going another day without his expert opinion.

Juan has far more experience outside of 121 than I do, so he's informative to me at least.

And my gut reaction is that in the year 2022 the airshow and warbird communities should be able to avoid midairs at major events. Nothing has come to light to change my mind yet. Although if the root cause did turn out to be a hypothetical collision with a non-participating drone that would be different, although it's something they'd have to account for going forward.

I generally try to avoid Juan's videos, because every time I see one, it's so chock full of errors and assumptions that it's counterproductive.

In the fire world, we get occasional large gatherings of aircraft over a small geographical area, and at those times, the appearance of unauthorized, unmanned equipment ("drones") results in removing all aircraft from the fire and shutting down the airshow. One's plate is full enough that the introduction of non-participating objects, even as small as a "drone," might cause anything from aircraft damage to sudden maneuvering that could put a number of parties in jeopardy. There mere appearance of a "drone" is cause to immediately halt operations and pull all aircraft back off the fire.

At an airshow, I'd be quite interested to discover that the entire audience watching and filming the event, the participating pilots, the FAA, the airboss, and all the airshow personnel missed a "drone," while a guy in a parking lot saw it.

It may be 2022, but those loud, very old, shaking aircraft haven't changed, and regardless of airshow technology, they're subject to the same limitations that they held during the second world war. visibility isn't great. Some of them fly like trucks with bad joints, they're loud, they vibrate, and they still block traffic...such as a low wing airplane descending into other aircraft in a left turn...low wing airplane descending into another airplane, not exactly new, 2022 or not, and let's face it, we continue to see the same errors perpetuated again and again. VMC into IMC. Fuel mismanagement. Traffic collisions. Yada, yada, yada. Nothing new under the sun. We're going to see them again in 2023, too. And 2024. Maybe get a break in 2025. Then again in 2026.

You get the point.

I’m curious to see a video with the Airboss communications in an overlay.
That appears to be an intentional descent of the P63, perhaps following Airboss instructions or misunderstanding the 500’ line for a 500’ altitude.

The Air Boss only had a PPL and no apparent experience in warbirds. He was also the son of the head of the CAF. The Air Boss directed the P-63 to pull ahead of the B-17.

I expect a rapid pitch down is more likely due to drone avoidance (startle effect), than due to damage caused by a plastic drone causing a pitch over.

Alright it’s not a P-63 but same theories apply:
a lightweight recreational drone would be absolutely shredded by a propeller.
Chances of making it through that arc and bouncing off the canopy are not nil but close.