7 years to WB CA is realistically way too optimistic, but those who are 20 years on property with a few years away from group iv are also older so the shift will be coming but not that much.

That was never a rumor, except what you just made up to fit your sky is falling schtick.

Guys with 10 years on property are ~5 years from group 4 CA.

That doesn’t mean much. There has been numerous seniority list integrations over the past 20 years. Some were more advantageous than others.

A literal 12 year gap between new hires at legacy AA. And a trickle between AW and US during that same period.

777 and 787 CA plugs are in the 3200 range. A new hire is CURRENTLY looking at 20 years for a widebody upgrade. This number will certainly drop as we receive additional 787s and XLRs.

Projections over such a long timeframe are pointless. Over the next 20 years, we will see new managers, aircraft orders, new competitors, numerous disasters, etc.

Take the first class date and live in base. Dassit.

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, but aren't there only around 1,000 WB captain slots at AA? And isn't the 787 order basically replacing old 777-200's?

Repost from another thread...these are the numbers from just a few weeks ago.

Keep in mind that system wide there are 461 777 Captains and 452 787 Captains. That's 913 out of a total of 14,827 pilots. And of those bottom junior folks on the WB most are out of seniority for the bid status...around 3200 being the current lowest. Lots of NB guys waiting for lineholder seniority on the WB I guess. Retirements vs. Growth definitely. I would not recommend AA for WB flying unless you are very patient and dont mind being based out of NY or MIA. Good airline QOL for a price...most definitely a commute for most. Guessing about 2/3 do but it could be more.

And that would be the only reason. Love the airplane and been flying it for a long time. And after watching the latest crew news those 47 airframes dont seem to fit into the new airline strategy. As for the 20 773s, a fleet of this size might not be sustainable given the history of our airline. Three aircraft types could dominate for a long time to come IMO.

Something like that. Doesn’t mean all top 1000 pilots want to be group 4 captains. Some are happy to be super duper senior FOs or narrow body captains.

You probably also have some LTD and non flying guys in the mix.


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