Over/Under: Oil tops $150 by September...

How about NEVER!

With all of the emotional speculation on Wall Street; I think this is a good question...

However, I agree that there needs to be more choice of answers, i.e.- what are we going to do about it?

As a democratic society, what are we doing to change this?

I understand this will sound neg. but there is not much the average "we" can do about it. "We" will have to drive our cars certain places and cannot pull back that much on driving and insert about any other use for oil here (heat homes, cook, etc). We can vote for change, but I've not heard much if any talk of real soultions to the oil issue with any of the current canidates (I seem to remember Bush having a hydrogen car initiative that seemed promising...not sure what happened with that). "We" need a leader(s) who will step up to the plate with hard solutions that they can get passed both houses of congress who can open up homeland production while investing in alternative energies.

Nothing you can really do but show up to work and collect a check until the checks stop coming. Once your airline closes up shop, find a new career. Hopefully you were smart enough to have a job set up before your airline closes the doors.

As nuts as this sounds, it is going to start becoming a reality for many pilots if fuel keeps rising.

U-AKRO is not only the Airlines who will suffer, is a Chain reaction!!!! everyone everywhere will suffer!!!!

Is not a matter of the USA only.

Before the end of the year, you will see $150 oil.


It is funny you posted this question. This morning I was looking through my last 50 post (the majority of them were about oil prices from Jan 08 to May 08) and it is just incredible to see the history of the oil prices talk on APC, and how little people's attitude has changed about oil prices.

Around Jan 1, 2008, the price of oil was about $98/barrel. My response to oil prices was that the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up long term. There was even a thread about where do you think oil prices will be by the end of the summer. (60-80, 80-100, 100-120, 120-140, 140+). Of course the majority of people said 60-80 and 80-100. (http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=18717)
Very few people (myself included) said 120-140 and just a few more said 140+)

I also found the title of the threads interesting:
Oil Prices Peaked
Oil $100 a BBL
$105 barrel of oil
109 dollar oil!
Oil prices spiraling out of control again!!!
Oil tops $117/barrel, Continues to set new records daily
Oil up $10 in one week, pushes $130
Who's to blame for $4 gasoline
Oil marches past $130 a barrel

I even made a bet with someone about the price of oil at the end of summer (he said $60, I said about $130)


$150 a barrel oil will happen before the end of the year. $5 gas by this time next year.

I am more interested in when $200 oil will happen (gas $6-$7 a gallon). I feel this is around the tipping point where Americans (unlike some APC posters) will actually change their attitudes about the energy crisis. With $4 a gallon gas, you are seeing a slight rise in public transportation use, less SUV sales, more small car sales, and an ever so slight cut in the amount of gas American's consume. But for the majority of American's, they are doing things the same they were a few years ago.
$5 a gallon will see similar trends. More public transportation, less SUV's, more small cars, and another decrease in gas consumption. Still, the majority of American's will keep their old habits.

$6-$7 a gallon gas is where I truly think you will see effects on a big scale.

There are about 17 million cars sold each year in the US. In 2007, about 500,000 of those were hybrids (a measly 3%). I think you will see a huge increase in the number of hybrid/plug in hybrid/all electric cars sold in the next few years with $6-$7 a gallon gas. It just makes too much economic sense. The price difference between a gas powered and hybrid car was made up for when we hit $3 gas. Now any increases in gas prices only make these cars that much more financially attractive.


So when you do you think we will see $200/barrel oil?

I hear what you are saying, that if you look at the trend oil will eventually reach $200..... but I dont believe oil will make it to $200. From what I am hearing from various experts, it cant happen.

If it does happen, this country would nearly shut down. Not just airlines, everything. Have you seen the movie where Will Smith is wandering around New York and no one is around? Thats what would happen. The secret hidden theme to that whole movie was $200 oil. There you have it. Abra-Cadabra.

Maybe people will even stop flying their Cessna's - why try to get ratings when there won't be an industry to employ you?

They already have stopped flying their Cessna's. I can't even afford to fly anything but an Ultralight around the patch a few hours a month with gas this bad