--But just as "statistically certain" therefore, real, -as NW's 5-10 years down the road.

Well one statisical certainty will be the number of Northwest pilots who retire prior to DCC to go out under the old medical plan. For months we have been hearing that the number could be up to 1000 pilots. And if the SLI was finished prior to DCC that myth might have carried weight on the arbitrators decision.
I guess we can assume that if guys were going to go early they had their chance and the rest are in it for the long haul. I don't remember if this issue came up during the hearings but it is now irrelevant - we have a small number of guys that retired and that is now a fact.
BTW - do any NW guys know the actual number?

Scoop

I don't know the actual numbers, but I know a number of guys were caught off guard. Now they're probably in until 60 so they don't have to pay $2,000 per month for medical premiums.

It didn't come up on our side. We simply displayed the blue/red chart that moved forward in one year increments based on a statistical 62.4 age of attrition.

Carl

Not really, 75% of our list will be gone. They don't see it as real.

On average NWA pilots are only a couple of years older than DAL pilots, so about 75% of Delta pilots should be gone also.

Regardless, future attrition has never played a part in seniority list integration under ALPA policy with the exception of a modest fence with AAA/AWA, where the age disparity was significantly larger than in this case, so I'm not at all surprised that Mr. Bloch has suggested that it wont play a role in this integration either. The emphasis will most likely be on the prevailing equities, which are the current and dominant equities, with little consideration of what's happened in the past or career expectations at the old Delta or the old NWA. This strongly suggests some form of ratio of current and comparable positions brought to the "new venture."

The two groups are not even close to equal in age.

I for one hope for an arbitrated decision. We could not possibly do worse than what was offered to us by DALPA.

Future attrition models played a part in both mergers that I was personally involved in. It's what was used to determine how long the fences would be for the DOH list at NWA/REP. Where's your data to support your thesis of "never" playing a part in an SLI?

I'll bet Mr. Bloch would be surprised at how you've characterized his statements. Where do you claim Mr. Bloch "suggested" this? Or are you one of those who thinks the retirement age is a "vagary" of the future?

Carl

At our last LEC meeting our negotiators said that NWA had nearly 200 guys over the age of 60 already on the list (most on some type of sick/disability with the rest being SO's). When those positions were taken out, the difference in both median and average age was less than 2 years. Even with those over 60's included it was about 2 years. FWIW

The "incredible" 1000 attrition a couple of days ago probably narrowed the difference a little more.

That is a good argument for DOH, thanks.