There is a worldwide shortage period!!! The US is providing trained experienced pilots for the rest of the world at this very moment.

As for the pending US specific pilot shortage, it is around the corner. Will it help current mainline US pilots, No. Management will just install cadet programs at Universities and/ or figure out how to outsource jobs. Cruise companies do it all the time. They hire third world labor and pay them pennies on the dollar.

Not sure if the shortage is a myth or a fact. Was just doing my renewal at the company medical center and was told by the chief medical officer that they had their leave cancelled because they are processing 250 new hires this month. Most are being hired on the 777 with some on the 320. The split is 100 cadets and 150 qualified pilots.

During the last boom management was content with hiring teenagers to fly the line and the public went with it. No matter what happens rest assured that it will not translate to higher wages and less work. Companies simply can not let costs increase.

Issues of the future:

Open Skies - International operators in the USA
China Airborne - China is gearing up to dominate global aviation
Global Economic Worries - We are not out of economic danger
Shrinking Legacy Airlines - fewer good jobs
Multi Crew License - Reduced training costs for cheaper pilots
Automation - Makes it easier to hire low grade pilots

We might need more pilots in the future but flying is still a business. Companies spend every waking moment trying to undercut their competition. The pressure is constantly on the down side. The world knows that pilots are cheap and an indentured workforce. There are considerable forces at work to insure that it remains so.

I would not be surprised if a global shortage happens but the real question is not if you will be able to get a job but rather will the job be even worth having by the time you get there.

Skyhigh

I don't see the MCL coming to the US. The gov't is implementing rules to up the requirements, not reduce them. We've already proven a body in the right seat doesn't mean much if they are scared and ignorant; The same for the left seat.

The US created 8500 new commercial pilot certificates in 2011 and could easily create more. Let's see 8500 new commercial pilots per year x 20 years and you get a very big number....... Bigger than the number quoted in the video as far as US demand goes. Worldwide, certainly there could be a problem. In the US, we'll see.

And has been stated repeatedly, if the US regionals have any difficulty filling their cockpits it is entirely their own fault. Years of beating their pilots about the head and shoulders for sport have come home to them. Cry me a river. Further, this "pilot shortage but this time it's real" mantra has been resurrected and repeated quite often over the past few years now by dorks like Swelbar and Cohen over at the RAA. What have industry leaders done to ensure an ample supply of pilots in case this shortage manifests itself after pilots start retiring again? Wait for it...... nothing. No plans for the way they train future pilots, no creative ideas to try to lure more young people into the profession, and absolutely nothing to make the career more attractive financially.

Remember back around 2007-2008 when there was that big nursing shortage? What did the health care industry do to attract new people into nursing? There was an advertising campaign, there were financial incentives, there were flexible schedules, there were paid moves, there were signing bonuses, and they RAISED pay. What are the regionals doing? Dragging out contract negotiations for years (Republic). Asking their pilots for concessions (Eagle). Starting alter-ego operations in order to get around their pilot contracts (GoJets). Yeah, regional airline management, I can't IMAGINE why no one wants to be an airline pilot anymore. Morons.

And even if these "can't see two inches beyond the tip of their noses" airline consultants and airline managers see the light, they might have screwed themselves. It takes TIME to make a quality entry level pilot. If you want qualified pilots TOMORROW you have to start putting a plan in place TODAY. Do you hear that Roger Cohen? Spend less time on your hair and spray tan and more time on coming up with a plan to fix this supposed problem. As you can tell, I am not his biggest fan.

Here's a comparison of experience that led to predictable outcomes:

Capt Chesley Sullenberger
- 20,000 hours
- Bachelor of Science, US Air Force Academy
- Master's Degree, Industrial Psycology, Purdue University
- Master's Degree, Public Administration, University of North Colorado
- ALPA local Safety Chairman, Accident Investigator, National Safety Technical Representative
- Saved 155 lives

Capt Marvin Renslow
- 3,200 hours
- Aviation Degree, Guilford Technical Community College, North Carolina
- 5 unsatisfactory checkrides
- Caused 50 deaths

Experience matters.

Rogue Columnist: Losing altitude in America

Yeah, but only 3000 ATPs, the new requirement to even get an airline job. 3000 new POTENTIAL hirees a year, and let's say a 1/4 of them are not really fit to be pilots. 2250 new pilots a year is pretty small, no?

Speaks to nothing about the shortage itself, and actually kind of admits it might be there...

You picked one of the best examples of a pilot with probably one of the worst... also, think you might of posted this in the wrong topic

The Boeing number says 69,000 pilots over 20 years. It sounds like a really big, insurmountable number. That's 3,450 pilots per year. Big deal. Like I said, we made 8,500 new commercial pilots in a BAD year. I didn't use ATP numbers because Age 65 has probably made that number artificially low. No retirement means no F/Os upgrading to Captain which will reduce the amount of ATPs created as some pilots get the ATP with the Captain checkride.

You are right...... There might be a pilot shortage in the future. There might not. I haven't a clue as I am unable to predict the future. There are too many moving parts to determine what future demand for pilots will be.

...+1..........