Quote:
Originally Posted by AeroCrewSolut
There is a pilot shortage overseas, especially in China. The growth in the middle class is requiring some Chinese airlines to pay 20K per month for Captains. You are starting to see some airlines offering upgrades from the 777 to 787 which is unheard of in the expat world.
In the United States there will be a pilot shortage at the regional airlines next summer. This shortage is of qualified pilots, not pilots in general. Many regional airlines are having issues of recruiting pilots who do not have multiple failures or other criminal issues. The pay at the regional airlines will have to come up to attract future pilots but I do not expect that to happen until regional airlines start cancelling flights next summer.
Another issue that needs to be solved is the financing issue. You cannot go to a bank and ask for a loan to become a pilot. They bank will not give you a dime because the default rate is around 40% for pilot training loans. You can only get a loan if you go to ATP Flight School or attend an aviation university.
Wait two years and you will definitely see a shortage at the regional level. In ten years, the shortage will hit the major airlines. If you plug the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet you will see the reality. Now all of this can change due to foreign ownership rules, the retirement age is raised, terrorist attack, etc.
Where did you get your data on aviation student loans defaults? Why can a person only get a loan through ATP or certain flight schools? If you don't mind me asking, what do you do? Are you a pilot, HR, a recruiter? I'm being honest and genuine with my questions, not smart azzed or looking for a fight, and I genuinely want to see my fellow pilots do better!
I just saw that banner ad, and thought I should point out that 4,500 certificates per year, per one flight school were issued. I'm sure that is inclusive of privates, commercials, and ATPs....shoot, they might even be throwing ratings into that mix. Nonetheless, that is a large number for one school!
A couple days ago I had another person tell me, yet again, that only 200 commercials were issued last year. This is blatantly, and common sensically FALSE. I hope folks aren't making big life decisions on such erroneous "facts" which continue to circulate.
If the shortage does come to pass, I think the training capacity of American flight schools is robust enough to meet the demand IF pilot compensation goes up, and therefore pilot training starts go up. So we may have a short lived crisis, if even that. I DO hope things get improved for pilot compensation and the cost crisis in general aviation flying gets fixed. Maybe that recently passed GA revitalization act, or whatever it was called, will do some good in reinvigorating our GA system. I really hope so, because I really love flying GA!