There is a fair amount of chatter on the Regional forums about a present day shortage, but as an aspiring airline pilot I have been making the rounds in this segment during the last 12 months and quite to the contrary I see nothing solid supporting this claim. I am less sure about the future, as credible sources seem to agree a shortage is pretty likely.

 

One thing is for certain I'll be retiring in 17 more years unless I die or they raise the retirement age to 70!

 

There is a backlog of people "ready" for the majors right now. Once things start to move consistently (it's been starts and stops so far), and that movement is sustained over years then we shall see.

Retirement numbers dictate that majors will have to either hire or downsize. There are about 1200 50-seat jets in US regional service. Assuming that at least 1000 of those go away and are replaced 1-for-2 with 70-seaters that's 500 airplanes worth of downsizing that's already in the bag which translates to 4000-5000 pilots freed up to participate in the pool of available labor.

Given the apparent economic and social decline of America, it's questionable whether any real airline growth will occur over the next few decades but if it did that would also drive more pilot demand.

Most US pilots won't look to overseas work but if the demand gets high enough (possible in Asia/Middle East) to drive pay to extreme levels then you might see US airlines competing with foreign operators for US pilots.

 

All the high points seem to have been touched upon, save one...make that two.

1) Population growth.

This is a pretty interesting website:

World Population Clock: 7 Billion People (2013) - Worldometers

Quote:

"A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

According to the United Nations, world population reached 7 Billion on October 31, 2011. According to the most recent United Nations estimates, the human population of the world is expected to reach 8 billion people in the spring of 2024."

NOW HOLD THAT THOUGHT A MOMENT...

2) There is yet another major consideration few people are discussing, anywhere outside of investment and manufacturing circles...

The global, social, and economic impacts of On-Demand 3D printing. This is a rather LARGE topic, but the main gist of it is this...

It is going to radically reduce the costs of just about anything manufactured anywhere in the world today.

So...

Population growth + radical cost reductions due to a new technology with the impact of the advent of the radio, or electricity, etc.

Could mean very big things for commercial aviation, and the demand for same.

Just a thought...a new twist?...on an old topic.

That said, seems like population growth alone (all else remaining equal) will virtually guarantee increasing demand for commercial flight as the world population grows by another billion between now and 2024.

 

There's an airline surplus.

 

So you're saying that said surplus has already accounted for the sea change described above?

 

Jet fuel is expensive. It doesn't matter if there's 7 billion people or 11 billion, if they can't afford a plane ticket none of this matters. We have to spend incredible amounts of money building new airplanes, developing new technologies, costs which get passed on to consumers in one way or another, and just assuming there'll be some explosion of aviation is extremely short-sighted IMO. It's more like a very delicate balance between many factors that are constantly trying to pull the industry in opposite directions (efficient airframes with more px vs. paid-for airframes, and many others).

 

'Double whammy': Nursing shortage starts in the classroom - NBC News.com

Apparently there are a lot of shortages these days. I think I have heard everything from pilots, to teachers, to truck drivers, various construction skills......

 

Have you flown commercially in the last few years? It's a PITA!!!! An a$$ in every seat. Even with a bad economy. The economy is picking up.
So airlines will need to add more flights or increase the size of the airplanes.

I think you will see bigger airplanes which means more pay. The chokepoint is landing slots and airport gates at most major airports.

 

Steal many of the pilots from the regionals and the airlines will have a new shortage to deal with in less passengers flowing through those precious hubs. Large aircraft flying everywhere isn't a cure for a healthy bottom line. Back to popping whip!