Pilot shortage myth?
09-01-2013, 07:04 PM
#32
Are we there yet??!!
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,010
Originally Posted by Neosporin
OMG you guys, there is most certainly a need for hiring into the majors and shortage at the bottom end will occur.
09-03-2013, 06:35 AM
#33
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Has anyone seen the banner advertisement on here for ATP (flight schools) that says they issue 4,500 certificates a year? That is just *one* flight school franchise/chain, or whatever you'd like to call them.
09-03-2013, 07:04 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2012
Posts: 612
There is a pilot shortage overseas, especially in China. The growth in the middle class is requiring some Chinese airlines to pay 20K per month for Captains. You are starting to see some airlines offering upgrades from the 777 to 787 which is unheard of in the expat world.
In the United States there will be a pilot shortage at the regional airlines next summer. This shortage is of qualified pilots, not pilots in general. Many regional airlines are having issues of recruiting pilots who do not have multiple failures or other criminal issues. The pay at the regional airlines will have to come up to attract future pilots but I do not expect that to happen until regional airlines start cancelling flights next summer.
Another issue that needs to be solved is the financing issue. You cannot go to a bank and ask for a loan to become a pilot. They bank will not give you a dime because the default rate is around 40% for pilot training loans. You can only get a loan if you go to ATP Flight School or attend an aviation university.
Wait two years and you will definitely see a shortage at the regional level. In ten years, the shortage will hit the major airlines. If you plug the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet you will see the reality. Now all of this can change due to foreign ownership rules, the retirement age is raised, terrorist attack, etc.
In the United States there will be a pilot shortage at the regional airlines next summer. This shortage is of qualified pilots, not pilots in general. Many regional airlines are having issues of recruiting pilots who do not have multiple failures or other criminal issues. The pay at the regional airlines will have to come up to attract future pilots but I do not expect that to happen until regional airlines start cancelling flights next summer.
Another issue that needs to be solved is the financing issue. You cannot go to a bank and ask for a loan to become a pilot. They bank will not give you a dime because the default rate is around 40% for pilot training loans. You can only get a loan if you go to ATP Flight School or attend an aviation university.
Wait two years and you will definitely see a shortage at the regional level. In ten years, the shortage will hit the major airlines. If you plug the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet you will see the reality. Now all of this can change due to foreign ownership rules, the retirement age is raised, terrorist attack, etc.
09-03-2013, 07:35 AM
#35
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by AeroCrewSolut
There is a pilot shortage overseas, especially in China. The growth in the middle class is requiring some Chinese airlines to pay 20K per month for Captains. You are starting to see some airlines offering upgrades from the 777 to 787 which is unheard of in the expat world.
In the United States there will be a pilot shortage at the regional airlines next summer. This shortage is of qualified pilots, not pilots in general. Many regional airlines are having issues of recruiting pilots who do not have multiple failures or other criminal issues. The pay at the regional airlines will have to come up to attract future pilots but I do not expect that to happen until regional airlines start cancelling flights next summer.
Another issue that needs to be solved is the financing issue. You cannot go to a bank and ask for a loan to become a pilot. They bank will not give you a dime because the default rate is around 40% for pilot training loans. You can only get a loan if you go to ATP Flight School or attend an aviation university.
Wait two years and you will definitely see a shortage at the regional level. In ten years, the shortage will hit the major airlines. If you plug the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet you will see the reality. Now all of this can change due to foreign ownership rules, the retirement age is raised, terrorist attack, etc.
In the United States there will be a pilot shortage at the regional airlines next summer. This shortage is of qualified pilots, not pilots in general. Many regional airlines are having issues of recruiting pilots who do not have multiple failures or other criminal issues. The pay at the regional airlines will have to come up to attract future pilots but I do not expect that to happen until regional airlines start cancelling flights next summer.
Another issue that needs to be solved is the financing issue. You cannot go to a bank and ask for a loan to become a pilot. They bank will not give you a dime because the default rate is around 40% for pilot training loans. You can only get a loan if you go to ATP Flight School or attend an aviation university.
Wait two years and you will definitely see a shortage at the regional level. In ten years, the shortage will hit the major airlines. If you plug the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet you will see the reality. Now all of this can change due to foreign ownership rules, the retirement age is raised, terrorist attack, etc.
I just saw that banner ad, and thought I should point out that 4,500 certificates per year, per one flight school were issued. I'm sure that is inclusive of privates, commercials, and ATPs....shoot, they might even be throwing ratings into that mix. Nonetheless, that is a large number for one school!
A couple days ago I had another person tell me, yet again, that only 200 commercials were issued last year. This is blatantly, and common sensically FALSE. I hope folks aren't making big life decisions on such erroneous "facts" which continue to circulate.
If the shortage does come to pass, I think the training capacity of American flight schools is robust enough to meet the demand IF pilot compensation goes up, and therefore pilot training starts go up. So we may have a short lived crisis, if even that. I DO hope things get improved for pilot compensation and the cost crisis in general aviation flying gets fixed. Maybe that recently passed GA revitalization act, or whatever it was called, will do some good in reinvigorating our GA system. I really hope so, because I really love flying GA!
09-03-2013, 09:46 AM
#36
Are we there yet??!!
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,010
Originally Posted by AeroCrewSolut
There is a pilot shortage overseas, especially in China. The growth in the middle class is requiring some Chinese airlines to pay 20K per month for Captains.
Not to mention the silly ass Japanese style medicals they put folks through.
You are starting to see some airlines offering upgrades from the 777 to 787 which is unheard of in the expat world.
\
\
The 777 and the 787 are almost a common type rating.
To go from the 777 to the 78 its only a differences course.
09-03-2013, 10:35 AM
#37
New Hire
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Posts: 9
Agree with the post about China. Overseas, some might say that there is already a shortage. The pay and benefits are really increasing over in Asia, and that coincides with this: Boeing: Pilot & Technician Outlook
China blows everyone out of the water as far as pilot demand in the next few years. But North America should be in a good place. Pilot "shortage"? Maybe not. Better industry overall and easier for qualified pilots to move up? Very likely.
China blows everyone out of the water as far as pilot demand in the next few years. But North America should be in a good place. Pilot "shortage"? Maybe not. Better industry overall and easier for qualified pilots to move up? Very likely.
09-07-2013, 06:23 AM
#39
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
777 to 787 is an upgrade? in cool factor maybe but not revenue capacity.
Expat jobs are a last resort or a non- option for most US pilots. Many would get a new career before heading over seas. The expat market might reduce US supply a tiny little bit but I think our market mostly stands in isolation.
Expat jobs are a last resort or a non- option for most US pilots. Many would get a new career before heading over seas. The expat market might reduce US supply a tiny little bit but I think our market mostly stands in isolation.
Last edited by rickair7777; 09-07-2013 at 06:44 AM.
09-09-2013, 03:50 PM
#40
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 69
As a CFI at a major university, at least on our end enrollment for flight training has been down quite a bit. Even in 08-09 in recession we'd get 120-130 new starts for the fall semester. This year:65.
A shortage may not be immediate, but how are people going to build the 1000-1500tt to move up. Not everyone can be a CFI when there aren't enough students to support it. Jump pilot, banner towing, survey get harder and harder to find anymore, and don't give you much if any x/c, instrument, or night time. Something has to give.
A shortage may not be immediate, but how are people going to build the 1000-1500tt to move up. Not everyone can be a CFI when there aren't enough students to support it. Jump pilot, banner towing, survey get harder and harder to find anymore, and don't give you much if any x/c, instrument, or night time. Something has to give.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
