If they dont want more of us to leave I think they need to show hope for FO's. I think last nights call will mean another wave of FO's that abandon ship.

This is just my speculation I have no facts to back it up. Feel free to add to it or tear it down.

I haven't really heard anyone mention this on here but you think there is a chance they want the first officers to quit?? Everyone seems to be in denial of what LOA 50 is designed to do. There is a couple reasons for pay protecting pilots starting around the 1200# seniority number.

I keep hearing repeatedly on this forum "if I don't get a raise soon I'm gone, or if they don't make it a fair playing field for all the pilots I'm out of here". Do the Math on the fleet numbers. They will have to many pilots after the summer flying. They even said in the conference call by early next year down to 38 +81 airframes (1200 pilots, we have around 1900 right now). You can't tell me those 38 200's are even a safe number. They want this company to eventually be a CRJ900 operation.

The LOA 50 was designed to make sure captains (go to NYC vs displacing to FO to avoid commute to NYC). They want to make sure displaced CR2 captains going to LGA/JFK are seniority order displaced 200 captains that only need differences (3week footprint) training vs initial upgrades who need the full course (2month footprint) for the rapid expansion in NYC.

After that it's designed to make sure they have first officers to staff the LGA/JFK 900 operation as the company shrinks down and parks the CR2.

And unfortunately and rightfully so it has upset all the first officers to the point that a lot are going to quit. Which based on projected fleet numbers I feel they want more guys quitting. They don't care about staffing the 200. If to many quit they will just park the rest of the 200's. With this LOA they will have plenty of guys sticking around to fly the right seat of the 900 for $70-$85hr.

I'm speculating once again. Hope I'm wrong.

Onedayatatime,

Your post is logical.

You probably over estimate Delta's ability to strategically manage an express carrier. One of my favorite lines from an article about Comair's demise was ... "Comair was a multi billion dollar company which returned outstanding value to shareholders, then Delta bought them." It is true. ASA was the most profitable airline, on a percentage basis, on Earth. Then Delta bought them.

Delta puts good Delta managers in charge. Pays nobody anything and usually retains some very poor middle management (have no idea how Endeavor runs, but this is the pattern). The express carrier is expected to operate with nearly no budget to run the thing and Delta assumes that whatever works at Delta should work at the express carrier, although the express carrier has none of the infrastructure in place to make it happen. Then Delta wrecks efficiency by overflying different carriers so that 4 CRJ's parked next to each other can't be flown by another airline's crews, or repaired by their mechanics. The 4 similar airplanes are for scheduling and maintenance, difference types all together. This drives reductions in utilization and increases in costs via the conflicting parasitic groups required to manage separate certificates.

So yes, it could be a grand plan. Or it could be (and looks like) the way things have always been done.

I can agree with this speculation. Although I think you missed a major point about FO's "quitting". You see, an employer would be subject to paying massive unemployment insurance premiums if they had to furlough all the pilots. If the pilots quit...then the company would not be subject to these increased premiums. Saving the company tons of money.

If their goal is to park all 200's, the cheapest course of action is to make life miserable to have FO's quit and the rate they need. Then train CA's in differences training and cash in the savings as they expand their NYC operations.

Brilliant way to reduce your workforce, profit and expand operations. I don't think there is a way to battle this. They win either way...if they hire = cheap labor...if they shrink = cheap reduction.

The problem is now keeping the 900's staffed in 2015. They will have to do something eventually or the precious 900's won't fly in their all important NY market. They will have to come up with something this winter or it will be too late.

Well said Bar!

The problem with the above speculation is that they are pay protecting those downgraded captains until they upgrade again (according to LOA 50). So where is the savings there? Thats not even increased fo wages, its having fos on captain pay. I wouldnt be at all surprised if they wind up keeping those guys on captain pay MUCH longer than just the middle of next year. Their ability to "anticipate" has left much to be desired by their own admission. The other thing is that attrition is still coming off the top of the list; and in higher numbers than the bottom most recently. This will require hiring. If they cant hire now, they certainly wont be able to after even more fos leave.

I cant believe DL mgt would allow such a liability to their NYC operation. LGA slots are a hot commodity. If they wind up routinely cancelling flights due to staffing issues I could see other airlines making a lot of noise about it.

I'd bet my next paycheck, Delta would shift B-717's in those slots rather than let them go. They'd give up flights in MSP and DTW first.

That will work for some of the larger markets we fly out LGA, but not all of them. Besides DL doesnt have direct control of the delivery of those aircraft and only has a handful now. Dont forget about JFK too. Im just sayin...

ExpressJet (ASA) is currently covering flying in LGA and DTW that both Endeavor and GoJets can't perform. It's month to month and has been going on for quire a while. And believe me, we can't wait for you guys to take back LGA. Rumors are an ASA CR2 base in DTW with CR2 CPA extensions in very soon.