10 years ago Barry Schiff said he would not recommend his children or grandchildren to become airline pilots. 5 years ago, Sully said the same thing. Surprise! Now things look better than they have in 20 yrs or more for young people getting into aviation. But the point is, you really need to have a passion for this career in order to tolerate it. Now contrary, to many, I think those who did not have a passion and are really, really pizzed off are good for the industry too, because they give counter-weight to the "living the dream" mindset. If you are flexible and even willing to leave the US to fly, I am confident you will make a career of this. Don't be misled, however, this occupation can and will exact a heavy price in terms of finances, stability, relationships, career progression and even sanity at times. People have even committed suicide over career calamities in this field. It is also an absoulte MUST to have a back-up skill to ride out furloughs and scare tactics which are employed ruthlessly by these airlines.
The US airlines have become like the US auto makers of the 80's, they made poor products and arrogantly assumed there was no competition. I personally, think things are so badly run at the legacies nowadays, that some relaxation of cabotage is inevitable. However, the Asian mkts will undoubtedly need more and more trained pilots too.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the future of the airline industry, but being replaced by foreigners (or automation) are not among them.

- The foreign airlines generally pay better than the average US airline pilot. That's probably true for majors, and definitely true if you average the regionals into the mix.

- Scope clauses would slow cabotage even if it were legal.

- Growth in air travel in Asia will create higher demand (and pay) for Asian pilots. Why come to here to work for less when you can stay home and make more? European pilots will go to Asia before the US.

- National security interests will not lightly allow the cabotage nose under the tent. Between Air Egypt and MH, there is plenty of smoke to infer the potential for fire...and that will be a done deal if MH turns out to have been an inside job.

The Norwegian Air issue shows they are trying to break down the system the way the shipping industry is run. If you get a situation where a few big holding companies employ the airlines, AND a furthering of Open Skies, I could see US airlines not being against reciprocal agreement where a foreign airline could be allowed to pick up and drop off passengers as they fly from say, Europe to NY, to LA, for example. There is a lot of outrage against the lack of customer service in the US airlines, I would not discount that.

The ships come to the US, not into the US. So different security issues. Also they save money with lower safety standards, which would not really work in aviation (both ICAO and public perception).

Also ships have more than two crew members...the CA and top mates are probably paid well regardless, but the rank-and-file crew can be had much cheaper overseas. That's not the case with airlines, although they might save a few bucks on flight attendants I doubt it would be much (ours are pretty cheap).

But still doesn't answer the big question...foreign pilots would probably have to be paid more than US pilots, on average. Otherwise they can stay home, get paid more, and see their family more. I do see a possible opportunity for foreigners getting paid rates equivalent to US domestic rates taking over international flying from highly-paid US widebody pilots...that's where the real opportunity for wealth re-assignment exists. But that's not a cabotage issue...that's just code-share/alliance stuff, so it would really come down to scope.

Melissa, I sent you a PM.

Make a lot of money and buy your own plane. Flying isn't nearly as cool when it's a job. I've flown some cool acft for the govt in cool places doing cool things, currently fly at a regionalairline, and flown my own plane. The first two have been awesome at times, but there is more not fun time than awesome time. Also, finding a partner who can deal with the airline lifestyle is tough. Finding kids who like you being gone half the month is impossible. I've flown with one captain at my airline who has been happily married to one person and raised kids with no divorce. One. Out of quite a few. The rest are divorced or on second or third marriages...or cheat, etc.

If you could own your own business, or work for one that in some way covered some costs to fly your own plane, or at least write it off, that would be ideal. That said, I have a bs in mech e from a good school, have ample connections and could go back to a 6 figure job, but I'm making poverty wages in the regionals and have a few kids I am feeding, bc, as of now, I'm still chasing my dream (nightmare?). If I wanted to be a wife/mom, no way would I do this. Maybe guard flying or something, but not airlines. Who is gonna raise the kids?