11-21-2015Quote:
There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA.
As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months )
What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company.
I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave.
^^^^ThisOriginally Posted by FlameNSky
I expect that in the future, they will still have trouble recruiting. Industry wide (regional) there are simply not enough pilots to fill the vacancies and it will take 5 years or more to attract new people to the industry, given the training and experience requirements. There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA.
As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months )
What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company.
I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave.
I've been saying this all along. Pilots are the new currency. Whoever has the pilots will get the flying awarded to them. With Envoy's leading flow program I'm expecting more lateral movers from RAH, Mesa and the like.
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