inky13

Very, very incorrect. That month had 1 lateral move.

However, that may change if this new hire-current-regional-pilots campaign of Envoy's takes off.

sublime259

I'm not going to quote it, but very well said Flame. You hit the nail on the head.

FirstClass

lol, I can't wait to see the look on your face when the flow starts having "operational problems". Whatever, enjoy it while you got it, I would. But remember, you have to figure out a way to get the suckers to keep showing for new hire school to make all your flow dreams come true.

Cujo665

Or they just merge, consolidate or buy... Plenty of options yet.
They've only got billions to play with.

FlameNSky

Well, anything is possible in this business. But that is hardly a viable argument. I am not so positive about the opportunities at envoy because it benefits me. I am part of the 824. Whether or not they are able to hire new pilots at envoy, it will not effect me. I will flow to AA (if I am not hired at Delta or United first) within the next 12 - 15 months. I am so positive about the opportunities at envoy because I really believe in them.

You see, it doesn't matter what you or I think about the flow program or management's trustworthiness. My confidence stems from that fact that Doug Parker, a person who has the ability to MAKE it work, sees it as a solution to his regional staffing problem. Ultimately, I believe that he sees it as a cheaper solution to that problem and his best way to attract pilots to the 50 - 80 seat market. He has the resources and determination to make that happen. Parker ultimately controls who AA hires. He has plainly stated that he will make envoy the quickest route to AA for a student pilot.

Consider this scenario: A newly minted ATP pilot with 1800 has to choose between going to envoy or Mesa. He could go to Mesa and maybe upgrade in two years assuming that Mesa doesn't end up in the same situation RAH is in today causing that pilot to have to start over again somewhere else. At year three at Mesa, he will have been a Captain for one year. He will likely have about 3900 hrs Total Time and 700 Hours PIC (assuming an avg time of 700 hrs a year). Had he gone to envoy, he would have the same Total Time but not have the PIC as it probably took him longer to upgrade at envoy (this is still a strong assumption though. Do you think current RAH will see an upgrade any time soon?) Fast Forward three more years into the future. Now the Mesa route would have him in at 6,000 hrs total time and 4,200 hrs PIC. He is finally "competitive" for the major airlines. The envoy route version of this pilot, again has the same total time and 3,500 hrs of PIC in addition to be within one year from flowing to AA.

Going with envoy over Mesa (assuming mesa kept the "quick upgrade") only meant having 700 hours less PIC. At that point though, do you really think United or Delta would choose one over the other over just 700 hours of PIC? But what if Delta or United never call? Or you get the interview but don't get a job offer? I know many guys such as myself that have 7,000 - 10,000 hr TT, 2000 - 5000 PIC with no checkride failures or violations that have not gotten a call for an interview. At envoy, it wouldn't matter, you still have that guaranteed slot at AA.

Some chasing a quick upgrade think it may fast track their career but they fail to realize that they are still competing with higher time Captains with more experience. Some do get hired at the majors with lower times, but those individuals are the exception, not the rule. Also, at airlines like PSA who have had quick upgrades now have low time Captains that will take years to get the experience needed to get hired, opening up the upgrade opportunity.

All pilots are dependent on their company's ability to attract new pilots and their Captains being able to pursue Mainline jobs in order to facilitate their upgrades. Any airline could end up the way RAH is now, unable to hire enough pilots to staff their air service agreements. RAH is the first, but there will be more. And when that happens, stagnation will happen. Only envoy can guarantee that Captains will flow off the top in addition to normal attrition. More importantly though, at envoy, AAG controls our costs and revenue. Places like RAH, Mesa, SkyWest will have to pay their pilots more money out of their 2 - 3% profit margins, limiting what they will be able to offer. That is why the RAH deal offered had big hourly raises but at the expense of other compensation areas. envoy is not limited by a set revenue stream from AAG. Parker could decide overnight that he will need to increase pay in order to make his Flowthrough Regional Staffing Solution work. As the regional pilot staffing crisis deepens, who do you think Parker will spend he money saving, his wholly owned assests or an outside contractor? He has actually already answered this question. In recent months, Mesa and RAH have been unable to fulfill their ASAs and now 12,000 block hours are being returned to envoy. Do you see him trying to bail out or help RAH now with their current situation? No, he has been advertising the flow and return of flying to envoy. The trend has already started and will only increase in the future.

Now, another solution that they major airlines have been doing in order to deal with the shortage of pilots is to bring more flying back to mainline. Parker has been very open about the fact that he is delaying the retiring of the S80 fleet in order to help pick up the slack from RAH. As Parker expands the mainline flying, it will again help envoy pilots as they will flow more pilots to mainline to staff those aircraft. Parker knows that the moment that he stops the flows, the envoy newhires will stop and their will be a mass exodus of this pilots. Any benefit that he gets from withholding flowthroughs would be very temporary and counterproductive to his Regional Staffing Solution. For the reason, I don't believe that Parker will ever withhold flowthroughs.

In the last 3 years, envoy flowthroughs have made up 68% of AA's newhires. United and Delta hired more pilots in the last month than AA has hired off the street in the last year. Parker has clearly put into practice his stated objective to make his wholly owned airlines, specifically envoy the fastest way to get hired at American. One can say, just wait, just wait all day long, but the fact is, for the last 4 years that AA has been hiring, the flow HAS worked.

Shiner

I keep hearing that if new hires quit showing up, AA will slam the brakes on the flow. In a scenario where every regional is shrinking because pilots are leaving for better jobs, do you really think AA would be dumb enough to kill the flow? Think about what would happen if they did.

If I'm an Envoy pilot in that scenario, and let's say I've got 4 years invested in the company (and 4,000+ hours in my logbook), I know I could move on to jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, or basically a multitude of other "good" flying jobs (corporate, air ambulance, cargo, etc.). The only thing keeping me at Envoy, at that point, is the expectation to be at AA soon. Do you think AA is going to stare down the few regional pilots they have and say, "we know we promised you'd flow, but now we're having operational difficulties, so you'll have to wait. But please stick around making $70K/year because we're nice guys and we'll start it up again soon."

Do you think they'd want their regional network to crumble? Because that's how you'd get your regional network to crumble.

Guys would start leaving so fast, the operation, which is already struggling without new hires, would be in disarray. The point I'm getting at is that regional feed is becoming extremely valuable. Keeping your regional pilot workforce happy is becoming extremely valuable.

So many of the doom and gloomers are stuck in the paradigm of the lost decade. Management was able to use and abuse pilots, and shifted flying constantly. Those days are over. There are far more jobs than there are pilots. They are going to start treating us like the valuable commodity that we are. It's already started, and the retirements are still just a fraction of what they will be.

In the Envoy (and Piedmont, and PSA) situation, I think rather than slamming the brakes on the flow, if the wholly owned carriers are unable to hire, mainline will bring the regional aircraft onto their certificates. If they want to keep their RJ's flying, and they want to keep RJ pilots showing up to fill classes, they will give you a mainline job to do it. I think this scenario is probably at least 5 years away, but that's how I predict the regional pilot shortage will be solved.

Envoy Envious

Exactly. 68% of the AA hires this year were from Envoy. They are doing exactly what they said they were going to do. Right now, the plan is for 15 in October and 15 in November with 0 in December. Things can change though and we may get some in December as well.

N927EV

There's no AA new hire class in December.

FlameNSky

I expect that in the future, they will still have trouble recruiting. Industry wide (regional) there are simply not enough pilots to fill the vacancies and it will take 5 years or more to attract new people to the industry, given the training and experience requirements.

There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA.

As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months )

What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company.

I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave.

eaglefly

Man, is this kid selling his *** off or what ?

Reminds me of somone with his hands pressed against his ears saying, "...laa......laa......laa......laa.........."

Too funny !