ComingInHot

This has been discussed multiple times already, pilots are still leaving SkyWest every month and if summer is going to be busy they'll have to staff for it. And since they cannot turn the training pipeline back up instantly, they will have to plan in advance.
The company already sent out an email to the people who were in training to expect training in Q1 of next year.

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amcnd

Sure they sent a email out stating that. But then there actions stated otherwise.. “last ERJ class jan”. “No training except CQ planed past that class”. “Downsizing PDX/MSP/DTW”. Don’t count on anything Q1. My guess Q3..

ComingInHot

And that might be a good guess, I just don't think it will be "years" as stated in their other post.

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MaxThrust1

It’s through March 31st, not May.

shrsailplanes

I don’t know if downsizing is the right word for it. Other bases are getting bigger as a result. It’s a reallocation. It’s not uncommon even when business is booming.

brocklee9000

Estimates since the start of the pandemic, mine included, suggested at least a 2023 target before any significant amount of hiring (i.e. movement to the left seat and then up out of the regionals) occurs. A vaccine might help a little, but with mutations and a slow rollout, who knows. I keep seeing chatter about "TSA numbers" but...they've never really gone above the 50-60% range, and it's obviously because of the holidays. Those really low numbers we saw all summer and fall, I expect we will return to those in the spring. The dropoff of business travel is apparent and will be the last to return. I'm not a doom and gloomer like that domino guy, just being realistic.

Now we have airlines bringing back furloughs and backpaying people, with the new relief bill. Even that is temporary and risks backsliding again. Until all the planes come back from storage and all the pilots are back at work, I wouldn't expect significant hiring anywhere. Obviously ignoring the outliers like the C5 and QX hiring at the moment. If anything, I would expect hiring and possibly growth at Frontier and Spirit, maybe Allegiant, and that could start a small siphon from the regionals. Mainline would be slower, but eventual. Training here is done though. I had hoped the rumors of "hiring" might mean finally bringing all the trainees back. Still holding out hope for them.

Skyhawk121

I'll take that bet. I still think we will see them go back to class in Q1.

Utah

LOL.

Block hours for January are under 100k. Last January over 135K. Last March was over 144K. We've got enough flying right now for around 3500 pilots. The only thing that's keeping over 5000 employed is reduced line values, 67 hour reserve lines, and a number of pilots out on LOAs. During normal times nearly 10% of the pilot group is doing some sort of new hire, transition, or upgrade training, or on the way out the door to a new job. Obviously without that happening, and most of the instructors back to flying, we're extremely well staffed.

And that less than 100k block hours for next month is being done with aircraft flown around with less than 70% of the seats filled.

Skyhawk121

I don't disagree with the things you stated, but when all this started, things were looking VERY bleak. Since then we have flown more block hours pretty much every month than they thought we were going to, and it seems like things may be spooling back up for us faster than anticipated. Maybe I am completely wrong, won't be the first time, and won't be the last. Hoping for a little positive news going into 2021. Let's face it, 2020 sucked and covid caused major issues for so many within the industry. For me personally pay has been down (but at least I am employed, several of my friends that are also pilots are not so lucky), my dog died (not covid related), and my father in law nearly died from covid but when things were at the worst his condition started improving and he pulled through.

So here's to hoping that 2021 is better and these pilots get to come back to class sooner rather than later.

brocklee9000

Yeah but we also need to be prudential.

Exactly what I was getting at. I also noticed this year I've done a lot of routes and overnights that used to be done by mainline, and seem to be going back to mainline this winter and into the spring. Some bases/partners shifted flying to us and we kept the appearance of "busy as always," and that's slowing down now. Some of it was downgauging but maintaining frequency. Moving forward it seems frequency might be decreases and consolidating to fewer mainline instead of spreading it mainline/regional. Almost every base was averaged at like 72 hours for January, and that's exactly what I got awarded. We're going to have to see every base creep back up into the 80s for base average credit, no more VTO, start bringing back trainees, and also have mainline start picking back up, before we hire.