Don't we all shrink as we get older?

 

Maybe vertically, but not horizontally..

 

Airline downturns I've seen:

1982-86
1991-93
2001-03? maybe longer, I forget the return.
2008-2012

2023-?

A lot of pilots are only slightly affected. A lot are.

 

With snow on the roof, becoming more scattered as time goes on.

 

I’m guessing over half those pilots were CAs and that of the FOs half of them were already upgrade eligible.
And just praying for a chance to be a regional CA and get the TPIC that MIGHT - if they were very lucky - be their ticket to a major.And I’m guessing the system capability back then was about a 900 thousand flight crew hours and you were actually flying about 75% of that.

Two hundred lifer CAs and 50 DECS are only going to give you a max possible 250 thousand flight crew hours no matter how many non upgrade eligible FOs you got. You can’t bleed CAs at 130 a month while upgrading 20 a month (who are then themselves being hired away) and long survive. And FOs with 500 hours jumping to LCCs hurts you almost as badly.

Either there is a serious recession (a real possibility) or even the best of regionals is in trouble. OO just cancelled a bunch of E-175s for a reason.

 

They didn’t cancel new 175s, they are delaying delivery of the final three out of 16. This forum has about three people on it with extravagant doomsday complexes. The sky isn’t falling at SkyWest. Yes there are some challenges the company is facing that would be existential if the company literally did absolutely nothing, but that’s not the case.

 

I stand corrected. One source erroneously reported several days ago that the cancelled aircraft were OO birds. They are in fact Republic aircraft:




Republic currently is facing many of the same problems OO is.

On the good news front, Embraers 175-E2 program is starting to take off.

 

Sarcasm?

It's over MGTOW for US legacy scope, and the program is currently on hold.

 

Interesting that so many 20 plus year pilots are finally leaving. Good for them making such a significant move.

 

Not sarcasm, my error. What I meant to say was it was good news for Embraer that their orders are increasing for the Larger E-2 aircraft. Those are also very much over scope for the US regional market but are starting to become successful internationally as alternatives to the smaller Airbus offerings. Orders for the 190-E2 and the larger 195-E2 are picking up, perhaps aided by Airbus’ supply chain problems with the A220.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3...022-deliveries

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ir-2022-10-06/