That's a very difficult question to give advice on. Here at SkyWest we have good solid potential for growth with both our new Alaska and US Airways flying plus our UAL and DAL flying's about as stable as you'll find. Also if AMR Mgmt gets their way SkyWest will more than likely also see growth with American Connection flying. I’d almost bet that’s a sure thing since our Mgmt team’s been spending some time in Fort Worth recently. Sad as it is since any AMR flying will come at Eagles expense. It’s looking like AMR plans to “Comair” you guys, I’ve got several friends at Eagle so it pains me to see what’s happening to you guys and gals.

630ish below you is a lot, I’d expect with that seniority you’ll retain your job as AMR makes their cuts. But if they keep hacking away at Eagle and outsourcing the flying you could potentially never see your upgrade, just like those at Comair. Here at SkyWest you’ll find your way to the left seat before the “Reaper” comes knocking on our door with big cuts, and he will show at some point. I’m not a Kool-Aid drinker over here but I can say there’s no other regional I’d rather be with. Coming over’s a big risk, a risk that you’ll need to weigh heavily, but with the future Eagle’s facing if I were on the bottom there I’d be headed here.

 

A lateral move is a gamble. What if Eagle keeps all the flying and scope is relaxed and they get even more flying? What if Skywest starts shedding flying? Skywest is just another regional with a ton of 50 seaters that is now losing money (although they have a large bank account). You won't ever know you made the right decisions until it is too late. I wish I would have gone to Skywest 4 years ago or Compass 2 years ago. I think that would have been good for my career and quality of life - but I still won't know until the next 5 years play out. This industry is brutal, I think the best thing would be to just leave this industry - something I give serious consideration to everyday.

 

flip a coin its a crap shoot...

 

Personally, I would wait it out and see what happens. Even if you get the F-bomb, you ve got the new 1500hr reg and mandatory retirements coming up... Both of these will help you get picked back up IF you find yourself on the street. I wouldn't make a lateral move unless it's absolutely necessary IMHO...

 

To clear things up, SkyWest Inc. is losing money but SkyWest Airlines is making money. We are the only profitable part if this group. As for relaxing scope, that will work in SkyWest and others favor more than Eagles. Also the LARGE majority of our contracts with UAL and DAL don't expire until 2017 and 2020 respectfully.

Yes we have a lot of 50 seaters but far less than many of our competitors and yes ASA/XJT's a competitor to SkyWest Airlines. Currently all of our aircraft including the 50’s are under long term contracts; if our partners want them gone they will have to trade the ships for others, wait for the contracts to expire or pay HUGE penalties. UAL’s been trading our 50’s for 70’s and every time they do they increase the length of the contract. Another fact is all of our aircraft are ours unlike many of our competitors and we also own the rights to our gates in SLC and many in ATL. This makes replacing us more difficult so as long as our cost remains competitive SkyWest will fly. But if our competitors file BK and decrease their cost then SkyWest will find itself facing a judgment day.

 

What percentage of the pilots at skywest are lifers? I would imagine the numerous amount of pilot domiciles(which has been increasing lately) raises that percentage.

 

5 years ago I would have said over 50%, today I'd say 25% and I expect that number to keep decreasing. Remember that they closed 7 domiciles in the last 3 years and it's looking like a few more will close. That decreases the number of lifers, especially since the majority of these closures are west coast.

The closures weren't from loss of flying but SkyWest trying to decrease outstation basing in order to run a leaner airline. This is causing a lot to think about leaving.

 

I left Colgan for SkyWest 4 months ago. I had about 300 people below me and would have been on second year pay next week. I'm currently very happy with the decision, but ask me again in 5 years. I enjoy going to work more now than I used to, I have an easier commute, and though I make less money it's not like I was making great coin over there first or second year really. Though 10 months at Colgan and I was still on reserve, flew about 200 hours in that time, 3rd most junior on my airplane. 4 months here and I've already got 100 below me, including around 50 on the CRJ. I might hold a line in a month or two. It's luck and timing. Nobody can make the choice for you because every situation is different, but so far it's worked out for me. I will say that my class here was predominately prior 121 and a lot of people are happy to work here. The times are good here now. No telling that they will be in the future, but we seem about as well positioned as anyone else right now.

 

25% may want to be lifers but there are tons of people that won't leave unless they get Alaska out of PDX or SEA, SWA out of PHX or FEDEX. Some people say they will leave but have such high expectations to leave. So I think 50% is closer to what will happen.

 

Those who want Alaska, SWA or FedEx will get it within the next 3-5 years and over the next 3-5 years life here at SkyWest will deteriorate just as it has over the last 3-5. Those on the fence will become very motivated to leave and in the end I think the number of lifers at SkyWest will be less than 25%, probably closer to 20%.

Just curious, how long have you been here?