Here is a random newhire (hired last month). He has about 22 years until retirement. Based on retirements only, here is when he would reach 56% system seniority based on a 1% growth rate. Just short of January of 2030 - about 12.5 years.




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Is 56% what's required to hold CA? Aren't there some who never upgrade, and of course others who retire prior to 65?

 

Cool. I was hired last year and have something like 1400 pilots beneath me; 1000 more in 2017, 1000 more in 2018.

My point is, where are you coming up with 1% growth? Mail me that crystal ball of yours, too many factors.

 

A couple of ways. First, I looked at the annual report for the last few years. They typically advertise around 2-3% capacity growth. But remember, capacity growth doesn't necessarily mean more airplanes. The 737-800 holds about 19% more passengers than the 737-700 (or 300). So capacity growth CAN be transparent to pilots.

Here is an excerpt from the annual report.

"The Company currently plans to grow its 2017 available seat miles approximately 3.5 percent, year- over-year, with approximately 2.5 points of that increase relating to domestic growth."

Secondly, I figured the company would eventually max out at between 10,000 and 11,000 pilots. (Speculating based on the number of pilots at mature carriers like AA, DAL, UA that have reached the limits of their growth) So 1% growth over the next 22 years would yield around 11,000 pilots. Granted we might reach that number sooner, which would naturally alter how quickly someone reaches that percentage.

It's all a wag. Nobody has a crystal ball. (I was forecast to retire number 1 at Legacy Brand X when I was hired there 18 years ago. Stuff happens) But I think it is responsible to use a conservative model to forecast upgrade when you're making your decision about where to apply. 1% growth is certainly modest and conservative. No way to know how many pilots actually make it to age 65 or punch out early. As the group ages and more pilots earn 5 weeks of vacation per year (at least 15 weeks with overlap corrections) it will alter the staffing model too.

But anyway... that's how I got the number I used for our little pencil to paper example of how long upgrade COULD take for someone hired today.




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Just for the heck of it, here is the same guy with a projected upgrade at 60% and 3% growth per year. It's at least fair to look at both projections.




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Fair enough. It's all timing...

 

Thank you for posting, it's good info regardless.

 

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Good info by all (except Whack, let it go dude). Zap always has a very realistic and reality based outlook. His crystal ball sucks a lot less than mine.
A wag of about 10 years to upgrade for someone hired now is pretty close imo. The 5 year numbers that I have heard recently coming out of the training center are a complete fabrication and there is just no way it can happen.
As long as the economy keeps ticking along, I suspect we will grow slightly more than projected in the annual report just like we have over the last 3-4 years.
Of course, age 67, another merger, an economic downturn, etc can throw the proverbial wrench in all of this.
If it doesn't happen then oh well. Being a FO here is not a bad gig as long as you aren't wound too tight. I don't base my happiness on which seat I sit in (BTDT just like everyone else here) and to do so is foolish IMO.

 

True. It's all in how you look at it. I have an 11 year old boy, so I have made the commitment to my family that EVEN IF upgrade were available today, I would not bid it until he graduates from high school.

Why? Because seniority in the right seat insures that I will be able to be home for all of the ball games, karate tournaments, father and son potato sack races, science fairs, graduations, dances, etc. Hopefully it means I'll be able to get some summer vacations before he is too old to think vacationing with the parents is cool. It means if I can't be off on Christmas, I can sure as heck get home Christmas morning before the family even changes out of their pajamas. And on July 4th I'll be home long before the fireworks start.

If you add up all of the places I've worked, I've been a copilot for about 19 years. I don't own an airplane or a boat. I don't have a pool with a grotto. But we do ok. And all of the toys in the world isn't worth being gone for all of the "firsts" that you experience being a parent.

It also makes it so I have zero stress about a lengthy upgrade time. If we're at Delta today, there is no way I'd be bidding one of those junior Captain positions. Any position that 6000 FOs say "eh... thanks anyway" I probably don't want anyway!

So on the off chance that an upgrade becomes available before around May 2024, you can count on me bypassing it.




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