Here's what we know.

400-450 new hires. 250-300 upgrades.

Boeing wants us to take 72 MAX7/MAX8 aircraft in 2020. These will be in addition to the 34 MAX8 aircraft currently parked. I'm sure behind the scenes there are negotiations to acquire more MAXs at a significant discount.

Some (unknown amount) older 737-700s will be retired or returned to lessors.

The LEAD Center expansion will be completed in Fall of 2020. Sim capacity will rise to 26, from the 18 the current building holds.

Overstaffing will continue for the foreseeable future. I there are only 150 retirements next year. Even if we get 100 more aircraft online (very optimistic) by the end of 2020 we will still have a relatively high pilot to aircraft ratio. This is assuming no "game-changer" like red-eyes.

No vacancy bid in January 2020. First time a month has been skipped I think since 2014?

Long term there is reason to optimistic. They are still telling new hires 12,000 pilots by 2022, and we'll be up to 1200 airplanes in ten years.

Long term aircraft plans? Management has said it's too hard to spool up another aircraft type and our future is tied to the MAX. That probably means another type, considering that things that were too hard to do like opening a Denver base and purchasing AirTran ended up happening.

Most importantly, Zap will likely get an opportunity to sit Oakland reserve in the left seat long before he gets to 10 years on property.

 

I heard

• 700 new hires.
• "the retirement wave hasn't even begun yet"
• when Max returns, hiring will go crazy

all rumor-mill stuff, but FYI

 

Yeah that’ll be a definite bypass, but I like your optimism.



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The new hire numbers are official-ish, once from a reliable source (not a check airman) and now the same number has now been published on SWAPA site.

Southwest retirement "wave" starts 2023. It's not a wave like the legacies will experience but we will have a decade of elevated retirements.

I do believe that hiring numbers could be increased if the MAX comes back in a big way. Traditionally hiring numbers have been revised upwards as the year progressed. This year was a anomaly for obvious reasons.

 

Not to worry about the increase in retirements.... FAA will increase the retirement age to 67 and 11 months in 2020!

Kap

 

Wrong. It will happen right before Zap decided to bid for upgrade.

Seriously, what percent of pilots can make it to 65 years old? I don't think age 67 would have the same impact at age 65 did. I think it's a distraction, like PBS is...they can't program changes to our vacation bidding, they aren't gonna figure PBS out anytime soon.

Which reminds me, I forgot to mention that negotiations for our next contract will start in 2020. Based on what other labor groups have expereinced recently, expect a long and difficult negotiation.

 

Yeah that checks out. I’m not gonna lie. I’ve worried about exactly that. Age 67... a merger... etc


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Here’s what SRC published. It was most recently updated on November 13.




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The December 3rd class is happening. I guess I only know because I'm in it! Woohoo!! The other numbers you posted are what I've been hearing for February and March. During the interview we were told about 450 new hires for 2020. Time will tell I guess.

Edit: I totally miss read that chart. I see it says UPGRADES are cancelled for December. Sorry about that.