No Furlough Kool Aid
03-29-2020, 06:01 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,439
While I do agree that you should have money saved for life events, I think you guys are way over reacting.
Is it possible? Sure.
Is it likely? No way.
Maybe I will come back and eat these words (I do that sometimes), but this thing will have to turn into a calamity of epic proportion to include a total and complete long term economic meltdown for any mass furlough to occur at this airline.
Zap and I have had this conversation. We are all shaped by our experiences. I get that many of you have longer in the industry than me and have suffered through some rough times. While Covid is bad, this will not be a long term problem. The recovery will take some time, but all the right levers are being pulled in that respect. Once the virus passes, and it will, demand will return. I am not a "this is no big deal, the flu is worse" guy. My family is taking this thing VERY seriously. I am also squirreling away money, I just plan on blowing it on a sweet vacation when this thing is over.
Is it possible? Sure.
Is it likely? No way.
Maybe I will come back and eat these words (I do that sometimes), but this thing will have to turn into a calamity of epic proportion to include a total and complete long term economic meltdown for any mass furlough to occur at this airline.
Zap and I have had this conversation. We are all shaped by our experiences. I get that many of you have longer in the industry than me and have suffered through some rough times. While Covid is bad, this will not be a long term problem. The recovery will take some time, but all the right levers are being pulled in that respect. Once the virus passes, and it will, demand will return. I am not a "this is no big deal, the flu is worse" guy. My family is taking this thing VERY seriously. I am also squirreling away money, I just plan on blowing it on a sweet vacation when this thing is over.
03-29-2020, 06:08 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
Posts: 6,612
Agreed. The pent up demand from people being confined to their house is palpable. Hell, I’m starting to even feel it. Once the “coast is clear” Americans are gonna be really itching to take their delayed vacations, visit their loved ones, etc. The question then will be if they can afford it?
If anything, demand will return rather quickly but yields will be TRASHED as we’ll be selling very cheap tickets to get those planes filled. That’s fine. Better for the pilot group to fly around full airplanes that are barely making money than having thousands of us furloughed and flying around less full airplanes but with higher yields.
If anything, demand will return rather quickly but yields will be TRASHED as we’ll be selling very cheap tickets to get those planes filled. That’s fine. Better for the pilot group to fly around full airplanes that are barely making money than having thousands of us furloughed and flying around less full airplanes but with higher yields.
03-29-2020, 06:34 AM
#13
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,612
I also don't see many, if any furloughs. I'll eat my words if there is a furlough though....
In times like these, I am beyond grateful to have the industry-leading scope. If we want to maintain presence in a market, it will be a Southwest jet, flown by a Southwest crew. Legacies can put RJ's in certain markets and keep the mainline crews furloughed.
Hopefully this is all short-lived anyway.
In times like these, I am beyond grateful to have the industry-leading scope. If we want to maintain presence in a market, it will be a Southwest jet, flown by a Southwest crew. Legacies can put RJ's in certain markets and keep the mainline crews furloughed.
Hopefully this is all short-lived anyway.
03-29-2020, 07:58 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 252
For those of us that had choices as to where to go in the last few years, since everyone was hiring, SWA had that “never furloughed”, “always made a profit”, “employees first” stuff front and center. It definitely had an impact on where I chose to fly. Granted, many will say it’s a bad reason to choose a company to work for, and will instead pull out a spreadsheet with retirements, upgrade times, profit sharing charts, and such instead. But I think if SWA does furlough pilots, there may be some costs on the backside. Doesn’t matter if they’re choosing between survival and furlough.
Another thought. Isn’t furlough really cheap at SWA with the single fleet type, everyone can fly every plane anywhere? Training costs seem pretty low, compared to multi fleet airlines.
Just found this I wrote in 2017 as a soon to be hired “over-staffer”:
Psycho18th's Avatar Psycho18th , 05-05-2017 09:06 AM
What I see as deciding factors in choosing Southwest...
A company that has never laid off a pilot.
A company that hasn't negotiated a 50% pay cut to avoid bankruptcy, then declared bankruptcy shortly thereafter.
A company that has continuously been profitable.
A company with a large pilot base in the city I live.
A company with the same stated values/goals throughout it's existence, that also seem to keep it profitable..
That continuity and security in such a fickle industry are huge factors to me, when I look at the place I want to work the next 25 years. Take a look at the last 25 years at all the legacies...B-Scale, layoffs, retirement wipeouts, multiple bankruptcies, strikes, new mission statement and logo every 6 months, new CEO/savior every 6 months. Could all of that happen at Southwest? Sure. But when playing the long term odds, the grass seems pretty darn green in SWA-land.
Another thought. Isn’t furlough really cheap at SWA with the single fleet type, everyone can fly every plane anywhere? Training costs seem pretty low, compared to multi fleet airlines.
Just found this I wrote in 2017 as a soon to be hired “over-staffer”:
Psycho18th's Avatar Psycho18th , 05-05-2017 09:06 AM
What I see as deciding factors in choosing Southwest...
A company that has never laid off a pilot.
A company that hasn't negotiated a 50% pay cut to avoid bankruptcy, then declared bankruptcy shortly thereafter.
A company that has continuously been profitable.
A company with a large pilot base in the city I live.
A company with the same stated values/goals throughout it's existence, that also seem to keep it profitable..
That continuity and security in such a fickle industry are huge factors to me, when I look at the place I want to work the next 25 years. Take a look at the last 25 years at all the legacies...B-Scale, layoffs, retirement wipeouts, multiple bankruptcies, strikes, new mission statement and logo every 6 months, new CEO/savior every 6 months. Could all of that happen at Southwest? Sure. But when playing the long term odds, the grass seems pretty darn green in SWA-land.
03-29-2020, 12:04 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 131
Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
I also don't see many, if any furloughs. I'll eat my words if there is a furlough though....
In times like these, I am beyond grateful to have the industry-leading scope. If we want to maintain presence in a market, it will be a Southwest jet, flown by a Southwest crew. Legacies can put RJ's in certain markets and keep the mainline crews furloughed.
Hopefully this is all short-lived anyway.
In times like these, I am beyond grateful to have the industry-leading scope. If we want to maintain presence in a market, it will be a Southwest jet, flown by a Southwest crew. Legacies can put RJ's in certain markets and keep the mainline crews furloughed.
Hopefully this is all short-lived anyway.
All airlines will furlough. Single fleet airlines have the lowest cost to furlough
03-29-2020, 12:24 PM
#16
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Posts: 55
My concern is not for the medical recovery, which could be this summer. What I am most worried about, is when will everyday Americans have the disposable income to take their family back to Disney? With unemployment skyrocketing, I think it is going to be a while until our load factors are back up.
03-29-2020, 12:43 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 131
Originally Posted by 80emb145
If this goes 18 months, I see past my job and see global financial ruin in every sector except crime.
03-29-2020, 12:53 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Posts: 381
Originally Posted by 5and20
If this goes 6 months, I see past my job and see global financial ruin in every sector except crime. Here I fixed it for you
My condolences to you and whomever may be so unfortunate to count you among their family.
03-29-2020, 12:55 PM
#20
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by Psycho18th
For those of us that had choices as to where to go in the last few years, since everyone was hiring, SWA had that “never furloughed”, “always made a profit”, “employees first” stuff front and center. It definitely had an impact on where I chose to fly. Granted, many will say it’s a bad reason to choose a company to work for, and will instead pull out a spreadsheet with retirements, upgrade times, profit sharing charts, and such instead. But I think if SWA does furlough pilots, there may be some costs on the backside. Doesn’t matter if they’re choosing between survival and furlough.
Another thought. Isn’t furlough really cheap at SWA with the single fleet type, everyone can fly every plane anywhere? Training costs seem pretty low, compared to multi fleet airlines.
Just found this I wrote in 2017 as a soon to be hired “over-staffer”:
Psycho18th's Avatar Psycho18th , 05-05-2017 09:06 AM
What I see as deciding factors in choosing Southwest...
A company that has never laid off a pilot.
A company that hasn't negotiated a 50% pay cut to avoid bankruptcy, then declared bankruptcy shortly thereafter.
A company that has continuously been profitable.
A company with a large pilot base in the city I live.
A company with the same stated values/goals throughout it's existence, that also seem to keep it profitable..
That continuity and security in such a fickle industry are huge factors to me, when I look at the place I want to work the next 25 years. Take a look at the last 25 years at all the legacies...B-Scale, layoffs, retirement wipeouts, multiple bankruptcies, strikes, new mission statement and logo every 6 months, new CEO/savior every 6 months. Could all of that happen at Southwest? Sure. But when playing the long term odds, the grass seems pretty darn green in SWA-land.
Another thought. Isn’t furlough really cheap at SWA with the single fleet type, everyone can fly every plane anywhere? Training costs seem pretty low, compared to multi fleet airlines.
Just found this I wrote in 2017 as a soon to be hired “over-staffer”:
Psycho18th's Avatar Psycho18th , 05-05-2017 09:06 AM
What I see as deciding factors in choosing Southwest...
A company that has never laid off a pilot.
A company that hasn't negotiated a 50% pay cut to avoid bankruptcy, then declared bankruptcy shortly thereafter.
A company that has continuously been profitable.
A company with a large pilot base in the city I live.
A company with the same stated values/goals throughout it's existence, that also seem to keep it profitable..
That continuity and security in such a fickle industry are huge factors to me, when I look at the place I want to work the next 25 years. Take a look at the last 25 years at all the legacies...B-Scale, layoffs, retirement wipeouts, multiple bankruptcies, strikes, new mission statement and logo every 6 months, new CEO/savior every 6 months. Could all of that happen at Southwest? Sure. But when playing the long term odds, the grass seems pretty darn green in SWA-land.
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