Here's a simple chart that depicts the increase of leverage as the RLA process plays out. This chart is very basic and it is meant to impart a very basic idea: for the great bulk of the time spent trodding down the path of the RLA, leverage accumulates slowly. But, it accelerates dramatically during the final stages of the RLA process.

Yes, we need to approve a strike authorization - and the higher the vote in favor, the more leverage we hand to the NC. But, as they say, "stay frosty." A SAV does not dramatically improve our leverage right away. However, it paves the way for the development of tremendously more leverage later in the process. It IS an absolute necessity.

It's important to note that the RLA specifies no time limit for mediation. That's what the break symbol on the x-axis signifies. The likely record for shortest time spent in mediation before being released into a cooling off period was the railroads last year at 136 days. As of today, we have been in mediation 148 days. Not that it's impossible to be released earlier, but typically, it probably does not start to become realistic for a labor group to be released from mediation until it has at least exceeded the average time in mediation for all cases before the NMB.

It's difficult to determine that number because the data is hard to come by, but a partial analysis (emphasis on "partial") of mediation cases over the last five years puts the average time in mediation at well over 500 calendar days if adjustments are made for the pandemic and close to 700 days if those adjustments are removed. There are individual cases, mostly due to their union's fumbling, that have gone way over 1,000 days. ABX, for example, went 2,342 days. But they had a representation dispute going on, an injunction issued against their union (IBT) for an illegal job action, and then the pandemic.

The "We Are Here" arrow shows about where we are right now in the cultivation of leverage under the RLA.

RLA Leverage Chart - Compressed.jpg

 

Excellent post as always and a great tool to help visualize it. Thank you for the effort.

 

Perfect chart! Short, sweet, graphic and to the point.

Love it!

 

The only problem is the two slanted parallel lines on the lower (time) axis showing the scale is discontinuous between where we are now and release to self help, meaning that actual release might well be far far away and the time scale for such release not truly represented by the graph as depicted. One can represent it graphically like this which clearly helps explain the sequence, but any honest representation - which this is - must acknowledge that the RLA is an onerous process designed to preserve the right to strike in theory while making it intentionally as difficult and lengthy a process as possible to actually exercise that “right.”

That’s no criticism of the OP, merely an acknowledgement of the intent of the lawmakers who crafted the RLA and their skill in accomplishing that intent.

 

And the idea that the “leverage” works for both the union as well as the company depending on how it plays out.

 

Oh, if you ever get to the right side of the graph, the leverage against the company is phenomenal. You don’t have to idle a few billion dollars worth of aircraft while the fixed expenses (loans, leases, maintenance, gate leases, insurance, etc.) continue to march on before the company MUST concede or go bankrupt. But it can be a long long wait at substandard rates and work rules before you actually arrive at that point. That’s no reason to NOT keep the process moving (what choice do you have really?) but everybody needs to realize it’s going to be a long slow slog.

 

Please send that chart to SWAPA comm so they can put it in the RP! There’s still so much misunderstanding on the line.

 

True, The company can start looking for 10,000 pilots that want to be called a scab and work for a 3rd tier airline . I am sure the the list is long of pilots that want to work for a place that calls them a bunch of plumbers .

 

Couldn’t have said it any better myself.

 

Leverage is best used in what the company is doing. Dividend distributions, stock grants to the board and senior executives. That’s where leverage works in the pilot group in the form of education. Aka, they pay themselves but they can’t be bothered to pay us. This also works well in mediation when the company formally puts compensation on the table.

Seems like you guys are more concerned about the pilot group then management. Management is the ones that caused the meltdown, has stalled negotiations, abuses the contract, creating very dense trips to where you can’t do anything, JA on top of JA.

You have to hammer what management is doing. RLA will take us to a conclusion when or if we get a deal. It’s much easier to sit next to a guy and discuss what improvements need to be made and then back it up with what management is currently doing. Explain to the guy next to you that if you want a contract sooner rather than later you must for vote yes on SAV is a lot easier than you think. Trip by trip and pilot by pilot. Their are times when the job is busy but their are down times when the flight deck is not. That’s a good time to discuss the SAV and improvements that are necessary to get it ratified. Every guy I have flown with has had great opinions on what is important to them in a AIP. Steer them towards SWAPA’s FlightPlan 2020 because that’s what the NC is negotiating on. Almost all of them are in favor of a SAV. Believe it or not their are many at SWA that have already been through multiple SAV’s and some have actually walked. Know your audience. A guy who only has less than ten years vs a guy who has twenty have different want’s. Education on the misdeeds of management with the pilots whether your junior or senior is universal. The best unifier is bad management. Work wonders.