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Even if upgrades flipped, DL $3.1M ahead

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Even if upgrades flipped, DL $3.1M ahead

Old 03-25-2023, 06:10 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76 View Post
That's precisely why it's not a valid comparison.
But spanning out 30 years and using the current contract rates while we're in mediation, and using their newly ratified rates as comparison... you're projecting way too far out so the numbers just don't make sense because your chart presumes we'll never ratify a contract for the next 30 years.
It IS a valid comparison because:
a. It starts where both airlines are today.
and
b. Because it projects that NEITHER airline will get another contract for the next 30 years.

You Base your comparison on THE CONTRACTUAL AGREEMENT and not what you hope or assume the contract will be. Yeah, SWA MAY get a contract before DL gets one, but they also MAY leapfrog one after another with no telling who will have the latest (or best) contract 30 years from now, but you can’t base a comparison on MAY, particularly in the airline business that can be interrupted by recessions, depressions, wars, plagues, fuel prices, and God alone knows what else. Any prediction you make is only that - a prediction. The BEST prediction you have TODAY is based on the existing contracts.
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Old 03-25-2023, 10:41 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
It IS a valid comparison because:
a. It starts where both airlines are today.
and
b. Because it projects that NEITHER airline will get another contract for the next 30 years.

You Base your comparison on THE CONTRACTUAL AGREEMENT and not what you hope or assume the contract will be. Yeah, SWA MAY get a contract before DL gets one, but they also MAY leapfrog one after another with no telling who will have the latest (or best) contract 30 years from now, but you can’t base a comparison on MAY, particularly in the airline business that can be interrupted by recessions, depressions, wars, plagues, fuel prices, and God alone knows what else. Any prediction you make is only that - a prediction. The BEST prediction you have TODAY is based on the existing contracts.
And you think this is all realistic? Seriously...

Well, you do you, I suppose.
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Old 03-25-2023, 12:27 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76 View Post
Garbage in = garbage out.

When I was hired here back in 2016, we were all using myseniority.com to project our upgrade time and try to figure out when we'd hold ATL...

Well, the fancy looking graph at 0% growth said we'd upgrade in 16 years and then if we projected 3% growth, we would upgrade in 13 or so. Again... garbage in = garbage out. It's way too simplistic and if something is that much out of whack, it'll generally get tuned out and ignored.
This chart is not pretending to be a Nostradamus-like prediction of how our future will actually play out. Does that even need to be said? I cannot explain it better than waterski did in his reply below:

Originally Posted by waterskisabersw View Post
Instead of looking at it as a "this is what we WILL make and what they WILL make, forever", look at it as "this is how much ground we have to make up in order to pass delta NOW."
...
Also, I think this is a valuable chart to post because one of the common things we all hear is "the delta 6 month captain thing is a fluke, it'll stable out to be closer to our upgrade time, and then the compensation will even out." This throws that excuse out the window.
...
Like I said, this shows how much catching up we have to do.
Thank you waterski for saying it better than I did (emphasis mine).

Was United ALPA misleading their pilot group when they published their 30-year retirement comparisons back in 2017 depicted in the charts below? Or were they trying to give their pilot group an idea of where they stood relative to all of the other airlines in terms of company retirement contributions? Should United ALPA have been required to asterisk the charts with an SEC-style disclosure statement regarding forward-looking information and risk factors for their more ingenue-like pilots that read something like the following? "WARNING! CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS RELATING TO FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION and RISK FACTORS. United ALPA and its representatives may, from time to time, make written or verbal forward-looking statements. Those statements relate to developments, results, conditions or other events the United ALPA expects or anticipates will occur in the future. United ALPA intends words such as “believes,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “expects” and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, those statements may relate to future revenues, earnings, route openings, market conditions, new strategies and the competitive environment. Forward-looking statements are based on United ALPA’s then current views and assumptions and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Any such forward-looking statements are qualified by the following important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted by the forward-looking statements. General Economic Conditions: General economic factors that are beyond United ALPA’s control impact United ALPA’s forecasts and actual performance. These factors include interest rates; recession; inflation; deflation; consumer credit availability; consumer debt levels; tax rates and policy; unemployment trends; the threat or possibility of war, terrorism or other global or national unrest; political or financial instability; and other matters that influence consumer confidence and spending. Increasing volatility in financial markets may cause these factors to change with a greater degree of frequency and magnitude. Changes in the economic climate could adversely affect United ALPA’s performance. Competitive Pressures: The airline business is highly competitive. United ALPA strives to attain the best compensation, retirement, work rules, and benefits for the pilots of United Airlines. United ALPA negotiates against United Airlines to secure resources for the pilot group. United Airlines faces competitive pressure from other airlines. Those competitor airlines, some of which have a greater market presence than the Company, include ultra-low cost carriers, low cost carriers, and legacy airlines. Unanticipated changes in the pricing and other practices of those competitors may adversely affect the Company’s performance. Consumer Demand: The Company’s business is dependent on the Company’s ability to anticipate fluctuations in consumer demand for a wide variety of travel and cargo/parcel service. Failure to accurately predict constantly changing consumer tastes, preferences, spending patterns and other lifestyle decisions could create seat inventory and cargo/parcel business imbalances and adversely affect the Company’s performance and long term relationships with its customers."

It's almost like many within our pilot group are looking for ways to justify our lagging contract and to justify that it remains lagging. They're grasping at straws and straining at gnats to try to help the company's position. The chart in the original post is an entirely valid way of illustrating how far behind we are RIGHT NOW even if the upgrade situation was flipped completely around from how it really is today.

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Old 03-25-2023, 12:42 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Prospect View Post
The numbers the chart seem to project also just don't add up. You're telling me that after 9 years, the SWA pilot was a captain for 8.5 years and the DL only for 2 years, and they're basically even on earnings? Yeah right. Some assumptions in there as far as hours or something go are flawed.
Show your math.

The numbers add up. The only assumption not listed on the chart itself is that it assumes a start date at both SWA and Delta of Mar 1, 2023.

The code behind the chart was written by a person who has both a bachelor's and a master's in computer science from Harvard. They recently authored a peer-reviewed paper on an artificial intelligence algorithm directly related to aircraft operations. One of their co-authors on that paper is a professor at MIT.
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Old 03-25-2023, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Lewbronski View Post
The code behind the chart was written by a person who has both a bachelor's and a master's in computer science from Harvard. They recently authored a peer-reviewed paper on an artificial intelligence algorithm directly related to aircraft operations. One of their co-authors on that paper is a professor at MIT.
You need a Harvard computer science graduate to write code to multiply 3 numbers? This is one semester high school freshman Excel level work.
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Old 03-25-2023, 12:53 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by Proximity View Post
You need a Harvard computer science graduate to write code to multiply 3 numbers? This is one semester high school freshman Excel level work.
Cool.

I guess it means I'm good at delegating since I didn't pay the person.

If you're disputing the numbers, write your own code and show us how the numbers are wrong.
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Old 03-25-2023, 12:57 PM
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Sure the charts show where both airlines are RIGHT NOW. But future performance is a crapshoot. We're teetering on the edge of a recession with record high inflation. Sure DL has more retirements so will need to hire to cover....what happens if INT'L takes a crap again? Big 3 are fast to furlough and downgrade when things are bad. If we're looking forward 30 years, what the career been like at both airlines the past 20? What's the pay been like at both the past 20? Career progression? Upgrade time?

It's a matter of time before another black swan event happens and while I don't trust SWA mgt at all after the 1221 debacle...I still like the odds here for stability. I know CA's at DL who were given furlough letters 3 yrs ago and subsequently were placed on 717 FO pay because they didn't have a plane to fly.

Personally, I'd only chart out 5-7 years in the future and cross your fingers a recession + age 67 or Rona 2.0 doesn't happen.
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Old 03-25-2023, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Proximity View Post
You need a Harvard computer science graduate to write code to multiply 3 numbers? This is one semester high school freshman Excel level work.
Outsider looking in, but other than just continuing to devil’s advocate this thing (a healthy process for sure) why is everyone attacking the guy that wants to push for improvements to your compensation package? He’s obviously one of the most staunch supporters of getting things right the first time and not selling the profession short. This is a great way to look at what is necessary to just pattern bargain without selling short. Just more curious than anything why he’s attacked for wanting more…on a web board.
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Old 03-25-2023, 01:06 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by flyguy81 View Post
Sure the charts show where both airlines are RIGHT NOW. But future performance is a crapshoot. We're teetering on the edge of a recession with record high inflation. Sure DL has more retirements so will need to hire to cover....what happens if INT'L takes a crap again? Big 3 are fast to furlough and downgrade when things are bad. If we're looking forward 30 years, what the career been like at both airlines the past 20? What's the pay been like at both the past 20? Career progression? Upgrade time?

It's a matter of time before another black swan event happens and while I don't trust SWA mgt at all after the 1221 debacle...I still like the odds here for stability. I know CA's at DL who were given furlough letters 3 yrs ago and subsequently were placed on 717 FO pay because they didn't have a plane to fly.

Personally, I'd only chart out 5-7 years in the future and cross your fingers a recession + age 67 or Rona 2.0 doesn't happen.
+1

This info is great for a pre-hire who is under 35. What about those of us who are here to stay and lived the last 25 airline years in real time. Like when United was paying 747 Captains $190/hr and there were no jobs to be had?

Yes we need to fight for Delta+ and no I don’t think this group is as soft as Lewbronski likes to portray.

We will go down swinging, but even if we get a TA that meets the majority of the groups needs Lewbronski will always say we didn’t get enough.

Lewbronski’s intention is good but he may be working against his own SWAPA brothers by throwing all this drivel into the message boards. #SSFM
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Old 03-25-2023, 01:18 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by flyguy81 View Post
Sure the charts show where both airlines are RIGHT NOW. But future performance is a crapshoot. We're teetering on the edge of a recession with record high inflation. Sure DL has more retirements so will need to hire to cover....what happens if INT'L takes a crap again? Big 3 are fast to furlough and downgrade when things are bad. If we're looking forward 30 years, what the career been like at both airlines the past 20? What's the pay been like at both the past 20? Career progression? Upgrade time?

It's a matter of time before another black swan event happens and while I don't trust SWA mgt at all after the 1221 debacle...I still like the odds here for stability. I know CA's at DL who were given furlough letters 3 yrs ago and subsequently were placed on 717 FO pay because they didn't have a plane to fly.
Honestly, your argument here sounds very similar to arguments TSMITR has been making for years OTOF. TSMITR is a smart guy. However, he also is a recognized company apologist and by his own admission, met with the company last cycle to discuss issues related to negotiations (something expressly prohibited by the RLA § 2: Third, Fourth, and Ninth).

And, while "anything" can happen, "anything" can cut both ways. SWA's performance relative to our competitors going forward could be better or worse than you are insinuating here. You're acknowledging that "anything" can happen but then you're intimating that whatever that "anything" happens to be, it will disproportionately harm the OAL's and help SWA. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. I personally would not place any bets on the ability of Bob Jordan to return SWA to greatness. The Christmas meltdown and no-show at the Congressional hearing were a preview of his management abilities going forward. But that's just my n=1 opinion.

Originally Posted by flyguy81 View Post
Personally, I'd only chart out 5-7 years in the future and cross your fingers a recession + age 67 or Rona 2.0 doesn't happen.
And what upgrade times should be used, in your view? Was it you who has previously stated using Delta's actual real-life 6-month upgrade isn't fair or realistic? What upgrade time should I use at Delta and at SWA and why?
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