Def need a bunch of rain storms this summer. Even the CPO is hoping for a self-induced meltdown to get people back.

Crewing flights from LAS doesn’t get you very far when there’s ground stops and diverts and pax and crews can’t connect compared to guys driving in.

 

UAL had one of the longest bankruptcies in aviation history. It was brutal for employees. SWA took advantage and dominated for a while. The growth of SWA in DEN speaks for itself. It was one of the fastest ramp ups in SWA history. UAL’s pivot of actually making healthy margins is recent historically speaking. Denver’s population base has grown as with O&D growth, and it has great infrastructure for connectivity. It’s a great spot. Those who control the local O&D wins the game. SWA is a p2p carrier that competes with a hub and spoke carrier in DEN. SWA relies heavily on the local population for its margins as does UAL. The difference is UAL has a regional feed and of course different fleet types to complement the network. Which gives them an advantage. SWA has to pick its battles. STS and ANC are now part of the DEN network. That should tell you something. Only two airlines in the first quarter had positive net margins. Both have major operations in DEN.

Kirby is a smart dude. He may have a big mouth but he is not the first. Crandall and Lerenzo had a big mouth’s also. Difference is we live in a age of social media. Everything gets amplified. He’s been pretty spot on for the most part. More importantly, he’s running a great airline at the moment. He’s definitely making BJ and AW work for it. When comparing ATL to DEN, scale matters. SWA never had scale in ATL. Even in the AirTran days, they never had any scale compared to DEN at its peak. They tried, they failed. Move assets to better opportunities someplace else. The rearranging of the network plus the initiatives that are all up and running now seem to be producing results. $4.00 a gallon jet fuel for an elevated time frame will do economic damage for the industry. Question is how much can airlines recapture the cost without demand destruction. Nobody knows that yet. The Max 7 will be a great tailwind for SWA. Lowers unit costs and is perfectly gauged for the network. Can’t come quick enough.

 

I don't think it'll work out that way (max-7s doing all the interisland) due to what the repeated short hops apparently do to the motors. I could be mis-remembering but I read something about how those short hops are unusually bad for the motors due to nasty heating/cooling cycles on repeated short legs. If MX didn't have a contractual lock that prevents it (their version of section 1 scope), we'd have been better off ferrying a dozen -700s over to do nothing but inter-island. But we can't so we won't. And each individual -7 will only be able to do a day or two interisland before they have to send it back conus just to save the motors from early overhaul. My prediction is they'll spread the pain across the whole fleet, using all types for inter-island.

 

My understanding is that they'd have to open up a MX base there just for those planes, due to MX contract scope. This is kind of like suggesting we paint some RJs in our colors and contract out inter-island flying to the lowest bidding regional, so be careful who you suggest this to. It would probably upset a maintainer to hear a pilot casually suggest outsourcing MX in the islands.

 

Open a MX base, weenies.

 

The other part of the equation that doesn’t get talked about here is ALK. They will rationalize the fleet and the inter island flying. Those 717’s will get replaced. Most likely it will be a larger gauge airplane. Which will create an excess of capacity without some frequency adjustments. Max 7 will certainly do some flying over there for sure and help rationalize the supply/demand problem. The inter island is a very small footprint of ASM’s for SWA. What would be interesting is if ALK did regional flying between the islands. I don’t know If there is a scope issue with that plus cargo restrictions that would come with flying a smaller airplane. That would change the calculus for SWA.

 

Agree. I had the chance to go to UAL in ‘15 and stayed here due to DEN being their most sr base. Tables have completely flipped. I don’t think we’re going anywhere there…May not have lots of growth for the foreseeable future due to lack of aircraft/better options elsewhere…but I don’t think we’re giving up like we did in ATL.

UAL is doing great now. Kirby does have a big mouth but his track record speaks for itself lately. Hopefully it doesn’t backfire for the employees…historically speaking UAL pilots have been through the fire and deserve their time in the sun (hopefully just not at our expense…they can go after DL and AA. Lol). I’d just like to see our displacement era end sooner than later as it’ll help the pilot group as a whole to have people back where they want to be.

 

We already allow inter-island scope relief. I’d assume ALK could have Horizon or SKW operate those routes with the 175. We could do that also. Neither airline has pulled that lever.

If we ever do west Pacific flying (could do islands further west with the Max like UAL does out of Guam) I’d think we’d need a mx base there…possibly even a small crew base for rsv coverage.

 

CPA’s are expensive. Since RASM/Yields are in the toilet on the inter island I doubt for SWA it’s worth it at the moment. Especially what fuel costs are at the moment. That lever is there though. Still scratching my head about the lounge out there. They have a plan of some sort. Just can’t figure out what.

 

Flying WB's out of there going west. You heard it here first.