fleet replacement, massive fuel savings, and finally opening up some longer thinner routes all feel like reasons to want the -7 sooner rather than later. Want to see some growth return to Denver? Start launching 4+ red eyes per night from Hawaii to Denver (OGG, HNL KOA and LIH) to fill some originators and there ya go. Red eyes are what made BWIs originators profitable again…

 

it'll probably be done by AUS base or open new base, draw down DEN and fly out of there. DEN is dead

 

With trip costs lower and lower CASM vs the 700, it is a no brainer. Just as the 800’s came on line and helped with margins, the Max 7 will do the same. It’s a niche aircraft no doubt but it fits perfectly within the SWA network. Perfectly gauged for the network. 100% usable in every city pair, including ETOPS.

 

I am sure they will put Max 7s on Hawai'i and Alaska, but the whole Denver dream of the nonstops is exactly like the 787....a rumor. Hawaii is low margin intense completion. United has multiple 777s in high density configurations going there every day. Those things are profit machines and United has the legacy hub ace of spades of tons of regional and mainline feed going to a high density heavy aircraft doing the long leg. They aren't going to sit back and let that go. They will undercut and wait while we bleed. There is a reason why most of our HI flying is from low competition airports where we are the dominant carrier.

Max 7 to HI is going to be great since now you will have 150 seat planes doing low load inter island in between crossings and more max 8 freed up to do the crossings. I don't think it's going to open up any mountain time zone Hawai'i flying, though (PHX notwithstanding 4 months of the year).

 

have you ever looked at the connections that are fed from our red eyes? We feed the entire country off those flights. Denver will only add to the options. “Low competition” like SAN LAX LAS PHX SJC and SMF where we go head to head with all the Hawaii players? I expect to see SLC and PDX added with the -7…

Do we need to serve a market nonstop in both directions? Like is that a regquiremnt? If so, Denver may be seasonal due to winds and augmented crew issues…

As for low margin…yes. If you look at the individual flight in isolation. Pan out and take the whole picture in and I’d argue otherwise.

 

We shall see. I just don't see it. Our network has definitely pivoted away from trying to compete in legacy hubs.
As for the comment above about Denver being dead from someone, I couldn't disagree more. It's barely moved in numbers of departures. It just has less empty originators and less crews.

 

which is exactly why Denver needs red eyes. United wouldn’t be what it is in Denver without its regional feed and red eyes feeding their originators. We are pivoting towards the same thing…

 

Red eyes have its place. Definitely helps but SWA has the smallest connection footprint of the big three and ALK. Specifically, DEN is unique because of the many destinations it offers. It lends itself to more connectivity. Most of the Max 7’s SWA will get at least for the next couple of years will be mostly replacement of 700’s. Until fuel prices moderate, capacity growth will take a back seat. Only what’s necessary. Hawaii has garbage yields compared to the system average. Always has been. Ask Hawaiian. No matter what the product is. any new Hawaii service will be at places that SWA has a good amount of market share. SLC and PDX do not fit in that category and would be crushed by Delta and Alaska. Both those airports have massive connections from SWA competitors. Which means SWA would have to fight for O&D traffic. Unfortunately most of the other cities that SWA has a major footprint, SWA doesn’t have the airplane to do that kinda of range.

 

If DEN is holding its own, there is no need to move assets around to make it bigger. We don’t know what yields are in DEN compared to the system average but since it’s the largest station and SWA was only one of two carriers that were profitable on a net margin basis last quarter, me thinks those initiatives in DEN worked.

 

SLC consistently has the most connections to/from Hawaii on our existing service. I’ve seen upwards of 30 on a single flight. Don’t under estimate our companion pass as a selling feature for those families sending kids to BYU in Hawaii…

PDX…if united thinks it can compete on red eyes to all of its bases, SWA can compete to Hawaii.

Got some serious fear of competition here today! Where is that warrior spirit? 😂