I agree with your prediction of month to month leaves of absence in the future, but as to past facts..... ExTO saved the company money because instead of paying 88 TFP times 10,000 pilots they were able to reduce payroll headcount by approximately 25% .

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Didn’t the govt pay for it anyways for the most part? They couldn’t furlough or cut wages due to taking the PPP money. It definitely helped cut payroll costs, along with VSP. No idea how the govt $ factored in…

Bump….Bueller?

EXTO was 55, ETO was less maybe 45ish or so, and VSP was around 68.

EXTO was 55. VSP was 67. Of those numbers I’m sure, but I’m also fairly certain that ETOs were not less than 55 either.

The employees on VSP and EXTO were 100 percent paid for with PPP money. I am happy it worked out that way, but it won't happen again, especially not due to a slight and very temporary overmanning situation. Anyone who was a FO when the max was grounded is rolling their eyes at the assertion that the company won't just keep on keeping on with an overmanned employee group. Simply put, the cost of shelving those employees is higher than the cost of keeping them. They will try some sort of voluntary LOA program I am sure, but they have done that in the past as well. What we will almost definitely see is the tightening of the open time market with all the second and third order effects that go with that. If you are good with min guarantee or slightly more, you'll be fine. The 180tfp alimony daddies will be freaking out.
No offense to our current VP of flight ops, he seems like a genuinely good dude. The VP of flight ops is, at best, a ceremonial position, kind of like the British monarchy. What they say and do has little bearing on what actually occurs.

There will always be open time due to sick calls, etc. POT before rsv will almost certainly guarantee continuous premium if people aren’t so desperate they feel like they have to snipe it at straight. See a lot more sr guys bidding for rsv out of OT too hoping to sit due to fewer trips going to rsv’s.

this exactly and southwest is to dysfunctional to not have opentime

Oh, there will be open time, but if the manning goes according to the tea leaves, it's going to get tight.
Anyone who was a FO during the 2018-19 timeframe when they kept hiring for the max but didn't upgrade anyone remembers how bad it was.
Yeah, there will be the occasional premium trip, but it's going to be considerably harder than it has been to score them. The smell of desperation starts spreading and then the high time flyers just bid straight on everything to beat the new hires. The good thing is it is all fully rigged now.

Actually might help out the premium situation on the FO front as you won’t have as many 1st yr guys sniping straight for 2nd yr pay. Or may not even make a dent…