Hi all, a similar thread has been posted on the United sub, but I thought I'd ask here to get the WN opinion:

If you had class dates at both United and Southwest, and lived in MCO let's say, which would be the better option for a slightly-more-than-middle-aged guy who doesn't love commuting but would like to get back to the left seat someday soon?

I've heard MCO is junior for WN FO, and I know you guys can rock impressive TFPs if you want. And the people at WN seem great no doubt. But the upgrade at UA seems much quicker, if you're willing to commute to EWR forever. Holding MCO FO at UA seems like it could take 3 years, then it's commute or move to be in base, at EWR? Maybe DEN?

I want to work at WN. The people and culture seem to fit me a lot better than UA. But I gotta get rid of the gnawing worry that I'd be leaving such an great opportunity on the table at UA.

I know no one has a crystal ball, but there are quite a few of us in this position and the time to nail down the decision is rapidly approaching. So any and all advice is warmly welcomed.

Thank you

I won’t tell you which Airline to pick as that’s a personal choice that you have to make that works for you and your family. I will say that I’ve never seen WN more committed to growing MCO in my 20 years here than right now. They want to create a “hub” (we’re technically not allowed to call it that) at MCO with 2-300 daily departures out of there. United is a great Airline, but they most likely will never grow MCO into anything other than a small mini pilot domicile. Two great choices, I think you would have a great career at either. Congrats.

You’re not alone. Many of us have had to make that hard choice. Count it a blessing that you’re in such a situation. Try to enjoy the moment rather than stress it. In the future, you’ll go back and forth over whether your decision was correct. There is no preventing that. In the end, you’ll need to prioritize your wants because the ones that you listed are opposed to one another and won’t all be met at one airline. I’m a quality of life guy and would always prioritize not commuting over upgrade. Others are different. Big congrats on getting to this intersection!

Ultimate answer to me would be if you’re willing to move. If your priority is MCO, go southwest. If it’s job, United

In my opinion base matters so much more than anything else and I have a hunch that upgrade time might come down a bit in the semi near future based on retirements finally ramping up and the way the company is behaving around expansion and potential fleet changes. SWA is a laid back environment and with a little seniority can do some pretty unique things with your schedule. Great place to work, although we have our issues like anywhere else. UAL is definitely the hot ticket right now and looks like it may be that way for a while. I had offers from both as well and chose SWA due to domicile preference and I don’t regret it one bit, despite my friends at UAL and DAL telling me I do. I wanna believe that we are starting to break out of the awkward stages of re structuring the airline and that in a year or two this place will be back to some of the strongest financials in the industry along with the lowest debt. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but maybe not. Ultimately up to you, but if you end up commuting for a long time the annoyance of that will overtake the shine of being at the big ticket place. Can’t go wrong either way. Good luck to you.

If you want a quicker upgrade (as of today—remember this kind of planning is all snapshots), UAL would be my choice. At WN MCO goes fairly junior for FOs. By the time an upgrade comes, it likely won’t be in MCO—in the last ten years the upgrade times and bases have made wild swings. Who knows what it will be like five years from now…

Something to keep in mind as well....

https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history

Go back a few years and take a look at the number of pilots hired just since 2021 i.e. post-COVID. Just for kicks... United Airlines alone has hired over 8200 pilots in the last 4 years. Still think you'll upgrade quickly? In the same timeframe, Southwest hired 3500 pilots.

Another question I'd be asking myself... what percentage of those pilots hired in the last 4 years are sporting their first successful mustache? Think of the effect of those young mustached 25 year olds on your career progression.

Then take the scale back to pre COVID and check out how many were hired pre-COVID.

Practical advice... go where you get hired first and drive to work. Don't commute. Don't count on upgrades - it's a very good life being an FO at either place, but you're getting hired at the back end of the wave.

Some but not many. Average age throughout has been mid 30's.

And they'll have essentially no impact on the career progression of a slightly-more-than-middle-aged guy.

As for hiring 8000 - it's a lot and it's out of 18000
The 3500 at Southwest is also a large fraction.

In terms of a pilot who has a short time horizon, United is the definite winner. WB options make junior NBCA more accessible. Exactly how accessible? There's a major NBCA bid next month, stay tuned.

This post answers the question.

Upgrade is over rated (at least at our rates) and living in base is under rated.

Don’t commute. Make your decisions on that.