Looks like the pilot shortage is over before it began.

So much for using that as a tool to force wages higher.

"Despite forcefully held opinions by industry groups on both sides, FAA data suggests an ample supply of pilots is in the pipeline. FAA statistics on the number of Airline Transport Pilots (ATPs) over the age of 55 predicts future retirements of roughly 4,200 pilots per year over the next decade. Since 2011, the FAA reports an average of 7,200 new ATP certificates have been issued annually."

 

I'm guessing a number of those ATPs are to foreign pilots that aren't even legal to work here. I didn't the read the article, so I don't know if it says anything about that.

 

FAA stats don't break down the number of US (passport/green card) pilots vs. the number of foreign pilots getting certified.

US flight schools have PLENTY of new students...but almost none of them can legally work at US airlines. There is a BIG shortage of flight instructors, because there are so few US residents entering flight schools...

 

I believe that the vast majority of those ATPs were issued to already first officers at the airlines as part of the new ATP-rule that came into effect on August 2013 which required all Part 121 first officers to hold ATP by that date.

Pilot shortage still exists and will get worse. The day it stops will be the day I stop receiving e-mails every other day from regional airlines to call and schedule an interview (even if I never applied there) not to mention the high signing bonuses....

 

Let the Feds continue to think there's no shortage. It only helps us, and keeps the RAA and other industry lobbyists from screwing with the 1500 hour rule.

 

I agree. This is a good thing. ALPA has been saying this all along. There is no shortage. Only a pay shortage. The airlines are going to have to pay up simple as that.

 

There has NEVER been a pilot shortage at the Legacy carriers. At the regional's and part 135 ops; yes. Also, it is MUCH more of a pay shortage than a pilot shortage.

Most of us have been in this industry long enough to experience at least one pilot staffing swing. I have been through two; 2001 and 2008. There was a rampant hiring approaching both of those and then it dropped of a cliff. I am not expecting another 2001 or 2008 but the current hiring environment will inevitably swing back the other direction like it always does.

Its musical chairs. Keep moving while the music is playing but be ready to sit indefinitely in whatever chair you pick.

The bonus at the regional's are great for a year or two but its not going to look nearly as good if the hiring slows and upgrades start to increase again. Not trying to be pessimistic but I have seen it happen too many times. When the bonuses run out its going to be tough to go from $70K per year do $30K with nothing else in sight.

 

Link to the article?

 

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Regionals-See-a-Pilot-Shortage-Pilots-See-a-Scapegoat-228612-1.html

I hope you guys are right and most of these new ATPs are foreign pilots.

 

There was also a surge of mil pilots getting their ATP before the rules changed. That group of pilots is already in the market, so I don't think we'll see that many coming from mil all at once going fwd from here.