Qotsaautopilot

Airline captains are in the top 10% for annual income in this country. Sure there is a stratospheric difference between the top 1% and 10%.
That notwithstanding let’s assume you have a family of four. Would you (making an assumption on seat) as person in the top 10% of income in this country taking your family of four on vacation choose to buy tickets on Spirit or Frontier and save $800 or buy tickets on a legacy in regular couch for $800 more with the same schedule?

Now let’s assume you are some part of the other 90% of the population that may be able to travel by air. Same family of four and you’ve been saving all year to go to Myrtle beach and eat fried butter, or visit grandma in Ft Myers, or take the kids to Disney for the best three days of their lives. Which ticket are you buying?

Now let’s assume you are broke 20 something and your 10th BFF in a row thinks it will be super original to more fun than the last 9 friends to have their bachelorette party in LAS, MSY, BNA, CUN. Which ticket are you buying?

Let’s assume you are WT or ghetto and have zero business buying plane tickets but your life’s dream is to get one of those yard long alcohol cups to carry home from LAS, MSY, BNA, CUN to place proudly next to your rented flat screen. So by golly you are gonna slap some plastic down and book some tickets. Which ticket are you buying?

Yes there is plenty of market for 600 spirit planes.

Now the other 5-9% of income above us have more money than the other 91-95% of the population combined. They fly more, spend more per seat mile, and keep the big 5 in business. They are more high maintenance and in SOME cases more civil. They also require amenities to get and keep their business. More dollars but a whole lot less people spending them. Spirit and frontier are in the volume business. Less dollars per person but a lot more people spending them. 5-10% of population flying 5-10 times a year supports 3000+ planes. 70% of the population flying once a year or once every other year can support a lot more than 600 ULCC planes.

As the middle class shrinks even in a good economy due to the widening income gap, globalization, and the decline of unionism the ULCC market grows more. Do you see more people coming out of college with massive debt getting great paying jobs or becoming baristas? I see baristas. I also see great paying jobs that now are only good paying jobs. Can you say airline pilot? The ULCC model is not what the consumer really wants it’s what they can afford.

ShyGuy

I was ridiculed and laughed at for suggesting AS/VX would have gone 50-65% longevity and 50-35% stat cat respectively. Arbitration made it 60% longevity, 40% stat cat. If you were honest with the vast differences between the two carriers, the uber disparity in longevity, and the CBA that AS brought to VX, it was clear AS was going to be favored a lot more so and that would be via longevity.


There is virtually no difference between Spirit and Frontier going forward. Frontier may hit the quick upgrade spurt that Spirit had a few years ago from 2014-2016. Spirit/Frontier would almost certainly be a 15-25% longevity, 85-75% stat cat (respectively) with no fences in binding arbitration. Frontier started 1994, but small number of pilots overall until now. Spirit 1983 but the overwhelming majority of pilots have been hired post 2010. It would be an easy/no brainer integration. No fences. No major airline integration of the past 20 yrs has put fences on narrowbody equipment. NK/F9 wouldn't either. Pinnacle/Colgan/Mesaba was a fluke just like the Republic/Lynx/MidEx/Frontier list a while back. Regional SLIs end up being different, especially given that arbitrators see them as stepping stone airlines so career expectations are vastly different between those and a career destination (major airline).

Flightcap

I'm too young to understand what any of that meant. Does that mean you think a roughly equal bargaining footing for Spirit/Frontier groups in a merger?

nuball5

Good post....but you know that Airline Captain is gonna risk it and buy 3 ZED fares and hopefully they’ll get the jumpseat. Probably some oversold Delta flight out of Atlanta. Sleep on the Skytrain and wait for the 6am.

LandGreen

Thank you two for the good laugh. Spot on.

NotAHobby7

Unfortunately, these “90%ers” are often overextended in terms of mortgages/rent, student loans (possibly more of a future crisis than our previous mortgage crisis) car payments, etc, so come even a minor recession, they prob won’t be flying anywhere 🤷🏽*♂️.

FNGFO

No, but a goodly number of those forking out extra cash for a big 6 ride will consider cheaper alternatives.

putzin

Thanks for the input Shy!

Appreciate you taking the time to educate us with your experience.

Macjet

We had NetJets owners using Allegiant after the '08 meltdown.

As Briefed

Curious how prevalent is deadheading while working at Spirit?
Hardly?
A couple times a month?
Every 4 day?

Are the seats that bad?