Upgrade Time
 

Curious on everyone's thoughts if the quick upgrade times will continue. I understand that the ongoing fleet expansion, combined with new destinations will keep the doors open for new hires. However, is Spirit ahead on the hiring curve? At the MTC, the CPs said upgrades can happen in less than 3 years. How long will that sustain before it slows? Anyone done the math on this?

Thx.

Everything hinges on the possibility of a new aircraft order, which is expected to be announced early 2019. If some merger with frontier gets announced then it’s anybody’s guess.

Upgrade Time
 

Depends on if we get an aircraft order. If not then we hired our last captain sometime last year (someone on here did the math I’m just too lazy to find it). If we do get an aircraft order it would depend on the number of planes or if we end up merging etc...


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Merger:
You and Deathwish both mention merger. I didn't intend on turning this thread into merger talk, but is that still be considered/entertained? I haven't read anything that speaks to it being entertained in 5 months. I suppose you guys know what the news reports, unless there are some substantiated rumors.
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Upgrade:
I'm sure its mentioned on here somewhere about upgrades, but I've been reading intensely and I haven't seen anything mentioned. I'm sure I've overlooked it. Good to know. The aircraft order you mention: is that in addition to the Airbuses that NK is due to receive through 2021? Meaning, if NK doesn't order more beyond 2021 then the last captain has been hired..?
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Thx for the responses, gentlemen.

Reference to Merger:

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...distant-422886

Latest I can find easily. Anyone have a link to something that is more telling?

As for merger I feel like that’s always a possibility...

It’s 177 planes not 161.


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Thanks, I just found the old one someone did and copied it.


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Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe this last bid had a 1/16 DOH upgrade award. That’s with 50 or so airplanes yet to come from the current order book. Seems quite a few senior FO’s are staying put for now.

During the 3rdQTR Earnings call this very question was addressed. The Company line is that upgrades will continue to stay in the 2.5-3.5 year range for the foreseeable future. You can listen to the call on the Investor relations link on the bottom of the Spirit web page.

Thx for posting the math.

That kind of changes things for a lot of some applicants.

Do you trust everything Bendover says? I listened to that call too....

OP, I don’t see us stopping at 177. Whether it’s through another order or through a merger, is anyone’s guess. If you’re certain that you want to be a pilot at Spirit, I’d plan on being an FO for a lot longer than our current upgrade time. Plan for the worst hope for the best....
For some context, when I came, it was a mathematical certainty based on their order book without buying back leases, so I totally get the anticipation of a quick upgrade.

The investor presentations have always said that our business model works in 500-550 different markets. We just announced service to AUS, our 70th destination. There is a ton of room for Spirit to grow.

At some point an NK/F9 merger may make sense but I don't think it'll happen in the next decade.

Jyrinal always bragged about how we could be a 400+ airframe airline. You take 177 + Frontier and their order book, it comes pretty damned close to that target....

Why don't you see it in the next decade? Maybe you just have more aviation and economic foresight than anyone else alive?

I appreciate that. I really do want to be here. Its just gotta pencil out. Being an FO for 5+ years doesn't for my situation. Upgrading quickly is one of the paramount reasons, among many, that makes this place very attractive. I hope the rest of the applicants realize the potential slowing as well. I know quite a few that are banking on the fast upgrades. We all have to take a job for what it is, not what it 'could' be. To that, we are getting hired as FOs. Full spectrum, I, like most of us, set risk v reward, "is it worth it?". I want to believe it is. Plus, Spirit pilots are all pretty awesome guys. Work-life will at least be legit if upgrades slow way down.

Thx for the info, Tranq.

No worries! :) Not really sure if I answered your question though. I just hope that if you do come here, that you won’t be hugely disappointed if the upgrade doesn’t happen. Best of luck to you either way!

Upgrade Time
 

It’s all a shot in the dark. One airline may be upgrading quickly and may shrink or defer their orders. Maybe they run into financial problems. The upgrades could potentially dry up overnight. At a previous airline I was told I’d upgrade in 2 years. It ended up taking me 8 thanks to the 2008 recession and the age 65 rule. It went from hiring several hundred a year to me barely missing a furlough.

On the flip side of that, an airline like Spirit could place a big airplane order and have upgrades keep at the 3 year mark for the next decade. Go somewhere that you could be happy at even in a worst case type scenario. If it doesn’t work at Spirit then it doesn’t work but as you’re probably well aware, you never know what’s going to happen. Also you don’t really have a decision to make until you receive a job offer. Doesn’t hurt to dust off the resume and gain some interviewing experience.


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Okay just my 2 cents...

First of all, an airplane order is going to happen... they have even said it to the shareholders about two earnings call ago. They specifically said an order will be placed before the years end. Guys...come on it’s not a secret..Spirit will place an aircraft order. It’s just the type of planes we don’t know...Spirit’s airplane order is like a box of chocolates...never know whatcha gunna get.

Nobody knows if/or when Spirit will merg beside the big wigs themselves. Come on...what the heck does anyone know if or when we are going to get bought out...Getting bought out is like getting cancer. You could go your whole life never get cancer. Or one random day you find out you have it, or maybe your unlucky and you get it early on...nobody knows! And same with which cancer you get you could get. You could get some pretty good doable cancer like Melanoma (Delta) or you could get some nasty cancer like Pancreatic cancer (Frontier)

Now for some real rumors...I hear we are launching STL, SLC, and MKE just in time for spring break next year. BWI will be a base pretty soon...I have pretty solid intel on that one.

I’ve also heard Canada 🇨🇦 is in Spirit’s not too distant future.

They could merge us tomorrow but right now it doesn't make sense. Spirit is growing organically, the airline is improving in ontime and customer service metrics, profits are solid, stock price is up YOY, and our expansion isn't hindered. Frontier isn't in our way, yet, of any growth and they don't add anything that we can't do for ourselves.

Right now it would make as much sense as merging McDonald's and Burger King.

I could eat some McKing. Imagine Whoppers or Big Macs, McDs fries, that sounds great.
Us and Frontier doesn't sound great...

That would be awesome! I can’t belive we don’t go there already. I heard it’s because it’s too expensive but I sure we would do well.

Idk if the Canadian government would want the competition with their airlines. However some Tim Hortons never hurt anyone!

I hope BWI doesn’t become a base. The more bases you have the more you dilute the other existing bases leading to less flexibility (read: open time for swapping, look at ACY). Especially when placed in locations like BWI where no one wants to live and a new base doesn’t help anyone.

Now, another west coast base where people might actually want to live could improve qol for many even with dilution of the other bases.

A hand full of big bases is best for qol as opposed to a bunch of small ones. How much swapping to you think Allegiant pilots do? Basically zero. Like I tell my kids, you get what you get and you don’t get upset. Who wants that?

I’ve been here for just over 2 years. I was hoping to upgrade under 3 years but as it looks, We have been upgrading ~5/month. Pbs will be more efficient so prob less upgrades and pilots needed. So now I’m currebtly projecting 3 years, 3-6 months. I’m a late 2016 hire. Guys hired in late 2015 upgraded in 2 years 10 months. So it’s slowly getting longer and longer. If we don’t have an order beyond 2021 then we hired our last captain in 2017 already. So pretty much pointless to come here now unless you just love our bases. QOL is pretty good. Pay is decent. Fast upgrade is what made this place conceivable option. For new hires now. You’ll prob never upgrade. And if you do. It’ll be 5+ years. And you’ll be reserve CA for long time, if not forever. I’d never come here now. Too many other options for faster movement and better career progression. For what it’s worth. Hold out for better. Or come here. Get A320 type and bail

Jamie Baker

Hey, good morning everybody. You’ve had several months now to live with the new pilot contract and at the same time you know the growth rate based on ASM’s is decelerating pretty meaningfully. If I were hired as a first officer today, which would be a bad idea obviously, but what would your best estimate be in terms of how long it would take me to move to the left seat. In two years ago at this time what would your answer have been roughly speaking?

John Bendoraitis

Hey Jamie, this is John Bendoraitis. So right now we're running about – it ranges from two years and eight months to about three years depending on you know when you want to make the move, so we just kind of round it to three years and it's been pretty consistent in my time here. So it's been hovering right around that three year mark, so give or take a few months on either side.

Jamie Baker

And going forward, that's true even with the slower growth rate?

A - Bob Fornaro

But the block hours are, you know you got to look at we're getting bigger. So even though the rate is going down we’re in it.

Ted Christie

And I would say the move Jamie; it’s Ted. The move off of this, there may be you know rounding a little bit, but it's not going to be material shifts. We’re still going to be an extremely attractive place to work for pilots while we continue to grow even at mid-teens rather than ‘21, in ’21. It's still going to be one of the best in the industry.

Jamie Baker

Okay, got it, that was the point of the question.

If they stopped at 177. It seems all signs point to that not being the case.

Growth forecast for the next few years to the investors is 15% (it has been on ir.spirit.com for over a year). That means double the size every 5 years, so that is the only forward looking statement I can give you. Yes, growth could stop totally, (or increase, but even less likely) but something out of the ordinary would need to happen because you aren’t allowed to lie to the investors.

I love how the analyst says in his question, If I were hired as a first officer today, which obviously would be a bad... hahaha. I’m sure his job as an analyst asking nonsensical questions on company earnings calls is glamorous.

I was perplexed by this poorly thought out “joke” as well. I guess I took it as he was implying that should he need to apply at Spirit as a first officer that his life had taken a drastic turn for the worst? As if he could just apply for a highly technical and demanding job that requires years of training and prior experience to even be considered for. I found it very weird and extremely unprofessional. They do know we listen to these calls right? His “joke” came off as wildly out of touch, which now that I think of it everybody who participates in those earnings calls probably is.

Haha I heard that on the call and I believe you guys are perhaps reading into it the wrong way. He was joking that it would be a bad idea because he is obviously not a qualified pilot

Exactly. Context people.

I thought this question was interesting. Is he really concerned about Spirit’s ability to continue to attract pilots? Could also be a round about way to shake loose some info on aircraft orders/planned growth? I don’t know but I found the question kind of strange for an investor to ask. The investors certainly didn’t seem to be overly concerned with our ability to attract pilots when we were operating under an expired contract for 2+ years at less than half the rate of our peers all while operating under a restraining order.

Id apply if BWI is on the horizon ....10 minute commute would be nice!

ACY guys would flood BWI. We have a lot of guys on the east coast that would love BWI. We need a lot more activity to make BWI a crew base. I don't see it anytime soon, You'd think ACY would close but we fill the aircraft.

Why not? BWI will be over 30 departures a day soon (except for Tuesday and Wednesday). Could easily support a base.

I thought the rumor was that acy would actually close and essentially be replaced by bwi.

Dilutes flexibility in other bases. No more bases hopefully.

And no different airframes.