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Av viii 10-25-2019 04:09 AM

Q-“But with the new aircraft contract, did you build any,.. deliberate contract flexibility.. Should you end up participating in M&A at any point during the delivery stream?”

A-“We have the flexibility within the contract... I think we’re in a good spot”

Oh boy...

Omniscient 10-25-2019 05:23 AM


Originally Posted by Av viii (Post 2912268)
Q-“But with the new aircraft contract, did you build any,.. deliberate contract flexibility.. Should you end up participating in M&A at any point during the delivery stream?”

A-“We have the flexibility within the contract... I think we’re in a good spot”

Oh boy...

What is with some of you guys editing the transcript to make it imply something completely different than what was said. Exact quote, as previously posted;


Answer

“Hey, Jamie, it's Ed. So we were pretty thoughtful throughout the course of this order for a variety of things. And as Scott mentioned in his comments, flexibility was a component of our fleet desires going forward and that flexibility went up or down within gauge, and we built a balance sheet to enhance that by the way. So we're very excited about the growth prospects. We feel good about the setup. We have the desired fleet flexibility to move within gauge to get more airplanes that we want, to retire aircraft, to sell aircraft. We have flexibility within the contract as well. So I would say, broadly speaking, I think, we're in a good spot.“

Maybe I should hack this quote up as well to simply say “we are very excited about....prospects”.

Halon1211 10-25-2019 05:51 AM


Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 2912307)
What is with some of you guys editing the transcript to make it imply something completely different than what was said. Exact quote, as previously posted;


Answer

“Hey, Jamie, it's Ed. So we were pretty thoughtful about giving the pilots matching Delta payrates so they will be happy and in turn be more productive employees. And as Scott mentioned in his comments, flexibility was a component of our fleet desires going forward and that flexibility went up or down within gauge, and we built a balance sheet to enhance that by the way. So we're very excited about the growth prospects. We feel good about the setup. We have the desired fleet flexibility to move within gauge to get more airplanes that we want, to retire aircraft, to sell aircraft. We have flexibility within the contract as well. So I would say, broadly speaking, I think, we're in a good spot.“

Maybe I should hack this quote up as well to simply say “we are very excited about....prospects”.

That’s what I heard

Balker 10-25-2019 07:02 AM


Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 2912136)
Exactly correct

Someone asked if they have flexibility to move to other Airbus types. The CFO said yes they do BUT they are interested in the 320 family and operating the 320 family. When asked about the 220, they said the 319 was selected to help serve as the smaller aircraft.

The answer was such a brush off like “sure, yeah....maybe....but won’t happen”

220s aren’t coming and I doubt anything but 320s were ever truly considered


There’s a reason why the 319 slowed down selling many years ago. Airbus started offering the 319NEO before they signed the JV with Bombardier on the CS100/300. Nobody is buying 319NEOs.

In my opinion, either get the A220 if you really need a 150 seater, or just build your business model around the 320/321 segment and avoid 319s altogether. The only reason the company decided to renew leases on the older 319s we have, it’s because they got them at a bargain. They’re not on property for the long run.

Omniscient 10-25-2019 07:19 AM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2912373)
There’s a reason why the 319 slowed down selling many years ago. Airbus started offering the 319NEO before they signed the JV with Bombardier on the CS100/300. Nobody is buying 319NEOs.

In my opinion, either get the A220 if you really need a 150 seater, or just build your business model around the 320/321 segment and avoid 319s altogether. The only reason the company decided to renew leases on the older 319s we have, it’s because they got them at a bargain. They’re not on property for the long run.

Why? The 319NEO isn’t popular because other airlines don’t put 145+ in them like we do. The answer to efficient isn’t another type and all the headaches with that.

The 319 trend started with Fornaro when they realized there is profit in running full 319s with ancillary revenues from bags, snacks etc. It’s why Fornaro added more small and medium markets when he took over, there is money to be made and not every market needs a 180 and 220 seat capacity.

flyjbh 10-25-2019 07:43 AM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2912373)
There’s a reason why the 319 slowed down selling many years ago. Airbus started offering the 319NEO before they signed the JV with Bombardier on the CS100/300. Nobody is buying 319NEOs.



In my opinion, either get the A220 if you really need a 150 seater, or just build your business model around the 320/321 segment and avoid 319s altogether. The only reason the company decided to renew leases on the older 319s we have, it’s because they got them at a bargain. They’re not on property for the long run.



We are buying 319neos. What if they were a bargain? What’s the fuel burn difference? Same engines?


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Aero1900 10-25-2019 08:59 AM

Frontier guy here. At frontier we converted all of our 319neo orders to 320neos. I'm sure that the casm is lower on a 320 than a 319, but I believe that having some 319s in the mix allows the company to serve a wider variety of markets. The 319 is cheaper, burns less fuel and requires 1 less flight attendant (obviously not a big saving) but the 319 could be profitable on a thinner route than a 320. I'm sure that when Frontier switched 319 orders to 320s they reserved the right to go back. Perhaps if the economy turns, they'll exercise that right.

As far as the A220 vs 319Neo, I have to assume that the cost to add a new fleet type would be way more expensive than the incremental increased casm of a 319neo vs the A220. I think spirit was smart to order as they did. It's expensive to run multiple fleet types.

Green Giant 10-25-2019 09:59 AM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2912373)
There’s a reason why the 319 slowed down selling many years ago. Airbus started offering the 319NEO before they signed the JV with Bombardier on the CS100/300. Nobody is buying 319NEOs.

In my opinion, either get the A220 if you really need a 150 seater, or just build your business model around the 320/321 segment and avoid 319s altogether. The only reason the company decided to renew leases on the older 319s we have, it’s because they got them at a bargain. They’re not on property for the long run.

The 319NEO is a great plane. With practically no orders; deep discounts and earlier availability might be the deciding factor. Without a significant 319NEO order; the plane would be out of production. Just my opinion.

Keeps Spirit with one aircraft type and breaths new life into an Airbus Product. Win for both companies. You will be sure to see more Airlines buying the A319NEO now.

Balker 10-25-2019 11:10 AM


Originally Posted by Green Giant (Post 2912475)
The 319NEO is a great plane. With practically no orders; deep discounts and earlier availability might be the deciding factor. Without a significant 319NEO order; the plane would be out of production. Just my opinion.

Keeps Spirit with one aircraft type and breaths new life into an Airbus Product. Win for both companies. You will be sure to see more Airlines buying the A319NEO now.

I don’t think Airbus is interested in heavily discounting 319NEOs due to slow sales. After all, it’s the same slot in the production line that a hot selling 320/321.

If they would have gotten into the JV with Bombardier prior launching the NEO, I highly doubt there would be a 319NEO today. The A220-300 is claiming a 15-20% DOC advantage over the 319NEO.

One important financial factor to consider is depreciation. Please reference the B737-600. It was the direct replacement for the beloved -500 (SWA and Continental workhorses). It turned into a wet fart. Excellent range, but too heavy.

I understand the desire to stay single fleet, but I think it would be best to focus on the 320/321 if no 220 are to be brought in.

TrojanCMH 10-25-2019 12:52 PM

There aren’t any firm orders yet. In the end they may not get any.


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Green Giant 10-25-2019 01:08 PM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2912503)
I understand the desire to stay single fleet, but I think it would be best to focus on the 320/321 if no 220 are to be brought in.

Expansion is the idea. The A319 brings a lot to the table. I’d rather have 100 A319’s added -VS- 20 A321’s added. I’m sure Ted ran the numbers. Give our CEO a chance. He might just surprise everyone.

Qotsaautopilot 10-25-2019 01:18 PM

I did notice that little gem. This is just a MOU. Nothing is for sure yet which is why they didn’t release the specifics of how many of each variant.

I’m certainly happy about the announcement but I wonder when it becomes a firm order with a delivery schedule.

Green Giant 10-25-2019 01:27 PM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2912562)
I did notice that little gem. This is just a MOU. Nothing is for sure yet which is why they didn’t release the specifics of how many of each variant.

I’m certainly happy about the announcement but I wonder when it becomes a firm order with a delivery schedule.

Both Airbus and Boeing have what they call undisclosed orders. Basically a deal with an airline for orders. Since the airline and manufacturer can’t agree to final terms; neither wants to make the announcement. When announcements are made; that usually is because the final agreement is very close. Or it is done and both parties just need to sign the document.

Even after the order is placed, Airlines can cancel, defer or even sell the plane to another. Unless you see it on the ramp, it can all fall apart.

Av viii 10-26-2019 06:58 PM


Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 2912307)
What is with some of you guys editing the transcript to make it imply something completely different than what was said. Exact quote, as previously posted;


Answer

“Hey, Jamie, it's Ed. So we were pretty thoughtful throughout the course of this order for a variety of things. And as Scott mentioned in his comments, flexibility was a component of our fleet desires going forward and that flexibility went up or down within gauge, and we built a balance sheet to enhance that by the way. So we're very excited about the growth prospects. We feel good about the setup. We have the desired fleet flexibility to move within gauge to get more airplanes that we want, to retire aircraft, to sell aircraft. We have flexibility within the contract as well. So I would say, broadly speaking, I think, we're in a good spot.“

Maybe I should hack this quote up as well to simply say “we are very excited about....prospects”.

It’s for you boys and girls that can’t read between the lines. I changed nothing about the context , just simply made it easier for the cool aid drinkers to understand. You know who you are

Omniscient 10-26-2019 07:27 PM


Originally Posted by Av viii (Post 2913218)
It’s for you boys and girls that can’t read between the lines. I changed nothing about the context , just simply made it easier for the cool aid drinkers to understand. You know who you are

You exactly did change the context.

Fake news.


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