Spirit or Frontier
#51
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,227
Likes: 32
From: baller, shot caller
Spirit stock always seems to drop after earnings, even when they beat estimates, it drops.
But oh yes, love the crew van chatter of "Yeah, so I bought Spirit at $XXX and made $XXX of it." All the financial wizards we fly with, yet I think it was something like 20% of pilots never participated in our 401k match program.
But oh yes, love the crew van chatter of "Yeah, so I bought Spirit at $XXX and made $XXX of it." All the financial wizards we fly with, yet I think it was something like 20% of pilots never participated in our 401k match program.
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 355
Likes: 0
From: Yellow Bus
The “NK doesn’t have an aircraft order” angst is some of the silliest ****** I’ve seen. As though the music just stops in 2021 and Spirit will never grow again.
The business model is reliant on growing 15% a year. We’re picking up airframes wherever we can find them. That’s not indicative of a company that’s done with growth. Either Spirit will place an order and continue to grow organically, will be merged with someone with a bunch of slots in hand, might be bought by a legacy or the economy falls off a cliff and it’s all moot anyway.
Granted, I think they waited a bit too long and are scrambling to reach acceptable terms with production slots available on a timeline that NK would like. But I’m not worried about things just stopping cold in 20 months. That might mean aggressive vulturism as we see today or a separate fleet order. It doesn’t mean standing pat where we’re at.
The business model is reliant on growing 15% a year. We’re picking up airframes wherever we can find them. That’s not indicative of a company that’s done with growth. Either Spirit will place an order and continue to grow organically, will be merged with someone with a bunch of slots in hand, might be bought by a legacy or the economy falls off a cliff and it’s all moot anyway.
Granted, I think they waited a bit too long and are scrambling to reach acceptable terms with production slots available on a timeline that NK would like. But I’m not worried about things just stopping cold in 20 months. That might mean aggressive vulturism as we see today or a separate fleet order. It doesn’t mean standing pat where we’re at.
#54
Why is anyone surprised that Spirit is going to order these planes on their terms, when they have the right price? The did it with us, the pilots on our contract, and they are doing it again with aircraft manufacturers.
#55
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,451
Likes: 24
From: Airplanes
Spirit Fleet Plan now shows 180 aircraft at the end of 2021 instead of the 177 that it showed last week.
Fleet Plan - Spirit Airlines, Inc. ? IR Site
FYI, since 2015, our Fleet Plan has increased from 144 to 180 without placing a single order. Spirit will grow. A LOT.
Fleet Plan - Spirit Airlines, Inc. ? IR Site
FYI, since 2015, our Fleet Plan has increased from 144 to 180 without placing a single order. Spirit will grow. A LOT.
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 657
Likes: 0
My last regional said new bases. More planes. And united flow through. None of that happened and now they are out of business. RIP. Anyone whose flown 2001 or 2008 knows that the music can stop at ANY time. Will spirit continue to grow. 99% yes. But we have no order yet. Promises of a golden future are only heeded by the ignorant (been binging GoT and I start to talk like it lol) Go with the now. Not with the “maybe in a few years”. Just my .02. I fell for the regional BS hook,line, sinker. I try to educate people with my errors 

#57
This isnt a Kool Aid thing, its a "how do I view my life and decisions" thing.
God help me if I wake up every morning with a vicious negative itch that I need scratched by the forums everyday.
Enjoy your family, your health, and your career. I guarantee you it isnt a bad as you like to obsess over.
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 353
Likes: 0
You literally cry and complain on every single post.
This isnt a Kool Aid thing, its a "how do I view my life and decisions" thing.
God help me if I wake up every morning with a vicious negative itch that I need scratched by the forums everyday.
Enjoy your family, your health, and your career. I guarantee you it isnt a bad as you like to obsess over.
This isnt a Kool Aid thing, its a "how do I view my life and decisions" thing.
God help me if I wake up every morning with a vicious negative itch that I need scratched by the forums everyday.
Enjoy your family, your health, and your career. I guarantee you it isnt a bad as you like to obsess over.
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 183
Likes: 0
From: CA
Here is the latest color via Uncle Ted from the 1Q:
"With all of that, the growth opportunity still looks great. And, yes, we are in the process of evaluating a fleet order. And in doing so, trying to arrive at what we think the appropriate growth rate is over the longer term. For now, we've been targeting around mid-teens. But we've always said that, over time, that will round as the airline gets bigger."
"And I think the right way to think about this fleet opportunity for us is flexibility. What we want to be able to do with the manufacturers and with our financing partners is to design a fleet strategy that gives us ultimate flexibility to grow at rates consistent with the market opportunity. And so, in micro flashes of either a recession or a downturn of whatever that might be, we want to be able to adjust. And in times of more robust growth, we want to be able to deliver. And I think what we've heard based on the preliminary and secondary feedback as we're well into this process is we're going to do that. We're going to get that flexibility in a way that we think helps us going forward, which I think is key. And it allows us to be dynamic in the view of the growth rate over the next 5 to 10 years."
"With all of that, the growth opportunity still looks great. And, yes, we are in the process of evaluating a fleet order. And in doing so, trying to arrive at what we think the appropriate growth rate is over the longer term. For now, we've been targeting around mid-teens. But we've always said that, over time, that will round as the airline gets bigger."
"And I think the right way to think about this fleet opportunity for us is flexibility. What we want to be able to do with the manufacturers and with our financing partners is to design a fleet strategy that gives us ultimate flexibility to grow at rates consistent with the market opportunity. And so, in micro flashes of either a recession or a downturn of whatever that might be, we want to be able to adjust. And in times of more robust growth, we want to be able to deliver. And I think what we've heard based on the preliminary and secondary feedback as we're well into this process is we're going to do that. We're going to get that flexibility in a way that we think helps us going forward, which I think is key. And it allows us to be dynamic in the view of the growth rate over the next 5 to 10 years."
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