Very much this.

Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.

For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.

Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.

Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.

Sorry but 50% is not even close to an accurate number. Airlines carry more Captains than First Officers (They have more vacation, they are in the training department, they are in management, they are more likely to go out on leave etc etc). Add onto that the career right seaters, the other group who hold off upgrade to stay in domicile or to keep a better schedule and you find the most junior Captain usually somewhere in the low 60th percentile. The current award has the most junior Captain award right at 64%

I am going to opine that long upgrade times will not really begin until 2024 or maybe beyond. Absurd? Not hardly. My opinion is owing to the further opinion that many FOs will bail out of here before upgrading. The big three will be scooping up pilots in droves and Spirit FOs are highly qualified. I have no data, but it makes sense to me that if upgrades begin to mathematically stretch out; in the voice of Black Ops 4, Bail Bail Bail!

Any guess as to when the last CA for the present orders will be/was hired using current attrition and hiring data?

Is 8 crews per aircraft (2164/134) proper/adequate staffing or will that drift down closer to 6/aircraft?

Well Ted says in the conference call that 2-3 times shorter upgrade times will be the factor that “amazes” new hires and attracts potential hires in the competition for pilots in the years to come. If Ted says it then it must be true.

Two year upgrades for everyone.

There are still several hundred captains who haven't been hired.

Where’s my quid???

Yeah, that was whistling past the graveyard assuming age 67 doesn’t happen, because the legacies about to spool up for some crazy hiring. And their upgrades will be somewhat comparable.

Apparently I’ll wait forever, while the “this is better then my regionals” over run me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

With relatively short upgrade times at legacy airlines, what is the real answer to this question?


Helane Becker -- Analyst

Thanks operator. Hi, team. Thank you very much for the time of course. Two questions. One on -- as you think about the growth in the fleet, so if you I guess I think 10 crews per -- 5 crews per aircraft, 10 pilots per plan. And I'm wondering if you're thinking about, as you hire these 1,000 more pilots plus whatever you need to hire for reserves, how do you compete with the other airlines that are in the process of replacing retired pilots who have a higher starting pay. I mean -- are you -- and your contract doesn't come up until 2023. So how are you contemplating attracting people to your brand?

Scott M. Haralson -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it's a really good new story, Helane. The reason that Spirit is one of the most attractive places to work is that because of our growth, our pilots achieve seniority and therefore move themselves up into the captaincy faster than any other airline. And they do it by a factor of 2x or 3x faster than they will anywhere else, even when taking into account the retirement schedules. So what we love to see when we -- and you mentioned some numbers there that we're hiring a good deal of pilots, and we see them every time they come into the office. We bring them in here, and we get to meet with them, and they are thrilled to hear about the company's growth opportunities because they want to be here and be part of it, and they want to further their career. So that's our single-best asset when we're attracting pilot talent.