Fair enough. It is base and RAP specific for sure. Used once every block doesn’t necessarily mean used every day.

I’ll admit my info is anecdotal but I’ve yet to hear from a SWA pilot that their reserves sit unused. They say breaking guarantee is the rule not the exception.

44 more upgrades

Nice to see some ORD and DFW movement. Hopefully LAS sees more as well in the coming months.

So with the new order we will have 145 by end of this year, and 293 by the end of 2027 before any lease returns. Without any additional options exercised or second-hand purchases/leases we are looking at an 8 year upgrade for a 2020 new hire. This adds only about 17/yr between 22 & 27 compared to 25/yr for 20&21....


Editing because read numbers wrong on IR

We will see plenty more triple red eye turns out of FLL for the LAS crew :rolleyes:

I’m figuring the 100 would start in 2022. Isn’t that more than 12 a year to 2027?

You are absolutely right, time to redo all my maths!!

Your assuming nobody by passes. Right now a Summer new hire is roughly 800 numbers from the most junior captain. If we continue to upgrade 25-30 a month that’s under 3 years.

Not that, I misread the invester report, for some reason had 2020 in my mind for start of deliveries instead of 2022, so should have been a 6 yr upgrade:
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.

Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.