until people start losng their jobs, all is well. Market corrections are normal. Buying an overbought market for two straight years is not normal.

The correction was inevitable (and overdue)...this is a convenient catalyst.

Yes, we can agree on that. But our problems are not based on a market correction or a broad recession. The problem is way deeper than that. What the industry is potentially facing now, it’s a post 9/11 demand drop. It’s true that investors are overreacting in other industries, but for us the problem might be real.
Doesn’t matter what the truth is about the actual level of risk. What matters is how people are going to react. Will the xxxx family fly to Disney World this summer or would they rather change their plans to a drivable destination? Will that young couple fly down to that beach resort in the Caribbean or rather drive to a domestic beach destination? It doesn’t take much for leisure travelers to say “Better safe than sorry. We’ll fly next year”

myrtle gonna have corona the same as punta cana. The fear of this thing will wear off once everyone realizes healthy adults are gonna get some pukes and a cough and some butt squeeze and then move on with their lives. Old people might wanna stay home tho


For Your Health

Flying to LAX the other day half the people in the terminal wearing surgical masks, landing in FLL people were wearing the safety masks from Home Depot (#spiritpax)

The irony is that both types are made in China.

Markets are people’s reactions as much as anything.

I laugh when I see someone with the face mask pulled down and on the cell phone. Clearly serious about keeping germs out

You’re probably right. But their 737 that would have otherwise done LA to JFK is likely going to get repurposed to do the FLL to PIT type runs while the 777 picks up the heavy markets

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE DEATH RATE
confirmed cases DEATH RATEall cases
80+ years old 21.9%
14.8% 70-79 years old
8.0% 60-69 years old
3.6% 50-59 years old
1.3% 40-49 years old
0.4% 30-39 years old
0.2% 20-29 years old
0.2% 10-19 years old
0.2% 0-9 years old
no fatalities*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Much more than a light breeze could take out a decent percentage of 80+ year olds.


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They still have to break even or take a small loss on the flight. Not easy to do competing head on with a ULCC while having highly compensated personnel.