Dude this is not a 2 or 3 month problem. Even if the virus started to disappear tomorrow. We are still in a recession

 

Dude, this is not a standard recession. I have no doubt that this will take time to recover from and that the average Spirit passenger will be disrupted from their travel plans. I also have no doubt that Spirit is better suited than most to weather a more normalized recessionary economy than most. And that’s what you’re staring at when this episode is over. One that has everything in place to recover quickly as it was humming along nicely before this.

I don't expect some 100% snap back by August. But all those places that are abandoned right now will be offering killer deals to get people back on property, and people who were just cooped up for several months will be wanting to travel.

 

You are deluding yourself. People who have been cooped up will be on unemployment. Most Independent restaurants will go belly up by the end of the summer.

There is a reason that SAVE stock is down the most. Most of SAVE passengers are the ones that will be hurt the most in this downturn.

 

The entire country will be in a lot of trouble if this is still going on by the end of the summer. Much less so if this is largely over by June.

This is will be a drag on the economy, but saying everyone who is cooped up will be on unemployment is just plain hyperbole. And the average SAVE passenger won’t mean much when the music restarts. Demand and who is willing to fly for what price point is going to be all over the map. That’s like saying the Legacies will recover quickly even though much of the convention/show season is passed, businesses will find other ways to communicate with clients and those businesses themselves will be coming off a three month survival period.

There’s no modeling for this. I don’t really care what’s Wall Street thinks will happen on a day to day basis. Tracking stock values on a day to day/week to week basis is setting yourself up for high drama.

 

Because everyone remaining will simply jump back on the full-fare bandwagon after this?

Thats not how it works.

Maybe a good portion of our current clientele won’t be traveling after this, but there’s a large portion of Delta and United and American clientele who will need to, but won’t be interested in overpaying for the service.

Did Wal-Matt go out of business during the last recession? Or did the Macy’s/Whole Foods crowd ship there instead?

Spirit is well positioned to thrive once this crisis is over.

 

Wrong.

A recession provides for even more price conscience spending. People go to Walmart, not Target. Chipotle, not a sit down restaurant, and people
will be prioritizing cheap airfare over legroom and carry on bags.

 

It’s exactly why our business model changed around 2010 to model Ryanair. Ryanair survived one of Europe’s worst recessions.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised that this virus will be the impetus to the death of the business traveler in the future. As companies adjust to conduct business by digital means and see that the travel of their employees is not totally necessary those budgets will be cut over time. Companies can save millions by not shuffling their employees around the globe if they don’t need to. Think email vs mail, text vs talk. Sometimes all it takes is a big event or push for something to change forever. I think the business models of many airlines will be in jeopardy in the future. This whole mess may have just started that trend earlier than expected.

 

That’s what a lot of people were saying in 08-09 recession too but it always comes back.

 

This. That day will eventually come, but it’s not here yet. There’s still a lot of value in being able to put actual eyes on products, properties, potential business partners and competitors. And there’s still a lot of benefits from actual interaction humans you’re working with when they’re located two states over or on the other side of the globe.