Source for the 90% please.
I am one of the "10%". When I fly with another one of the "10%"(I think around 40% of the time), and politics do come up, we always agree on 1 thing: we prefer not to talk about politics because of the way the "90%" talk about politics, mostly because they seem to assume they can change our minds, and we know your minds are closed.

Most likely 90% of the people he associates with are conservative republican. He does so because negative talk of his party or belief system upsets him. He surrounds himself in an echo chamber of like minded people. So he wants me to shut up and get in line with his belief system so he doesn't have to feel the discomfort that surrounds him everywhere with the S+++ show that is DJT. Being objectionable means speaking truth to power no matter who is in office even if it upsets people. Be it Biden, Hillary, Trump. or Jesus himself. The president and his team work for us, the American people and I will say it like it is no matter who's feelings I upset. Because at the end of the day,its about our livelihood, our jobs, our families, co-workers and so on.

Country over party. Period.

That’s unfortunate. I was really hoping none of the people speaking to other professionals/coworkers, in such a condescending, disrespectful manner, as so many have done in this thread, had reproduced.

Highlights from the townhall?

Furloughs will happen. Even if we get Cares 2.0 they still may right size unless the law states all covered employees must remain. Furlough is planned to last until Summer 2021 flying. Yes it's still cheaper to furlough. Two planes still coming this year, 16 still coming next year mostly on second half.

Biggest takeaway for me - someone asking about CAREs 2.0 (article today showing it has Sen Republican support for extending airline pay grants now), “Umm ya know (lol), we can mitigate a lot of furloughs without a CAREs 2.0, but I can’t mitigate them all” etc.

This leads me to believe that after an agreement (assuming it happens) for say 1-3-6 maybe 9 month VILs we could have a very small amount of furloughs even if we got not more support from DC.

Luckily, with 16 Senate Republicans now supporting an extension (House majority already did) it should be included in whatever final bill passes. Time will tell of course, but def positive news.

By the time next March rolls around, we should be talking about having either one or more vaccines that have passed Phase 3 and getting back to normal.

thanks!

—————————————————————

Yup. I believe this is a simple extension so none of the language should change from when it was signed in March the first time. Ie now no furloughs until March 31st (or whatever the end date is).

Clearly, you haven't been paying attention.

Clearly, you are correct, because there is no other outcome in your mind.

Yeah, it's a bummer. There are a ton of pilots across a huge number of operators here, so it's a good resource when you need objective information. It's too bad the owners are unwilling to crack down on the BS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usa...amp/3302324001

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKCN2512QE

It looks like everyone in Washington is getting onboard with the idea, Trump, Democrats, and a good number of Republicans.

Experts are being optimistic...if the language is the same as the last one, we will have our jobs for another 6 months-ish...

cue Bon Jovi...

https://youtu.be/lDK9QqIzhwk

Not necessarily, they said even with CAREs 2, furloughs will happpen. Whether or not it will mitigate the number of furloughs depends on the stipulations attached to the bill.

It has been touted by ALPA, AFA as a clean extension. So same stipulations as last time, would continue for another 6 months. The entire point of this extension is to ensure jobs through March when, some believe (with multiple vaccines in phase 3) we could be talking about a vaccine or by that time, Major Covid fatigue.

Maybe the language will change, but for now that is where we stand.

this is correct 100%... I personally don’t see it getting through if it completely specifies no furloughs... it will still cause too much bleeding to avoid massive losses, especially at the big 3. The most comforting part of all this is we can hope and pray that we will have minimal furloughs and we will actually see a planned recovery mid 2021

Well, if I understood what they were saying yesterday, the won’t take the CARES money if it stipulates no layoffs or furloughs. Spirit is in survival mode at the moment and they said it’s cheaper to furlough. So unless I misunderstood or something miraculous happens, furloughs are coming

This is Bendos quote -

=12pt“=12ptBendo: Jeff answered correctly, we are in support of CAREs 2.0 with PSP, would be a taker of that money, and if it got here before we furlough, presuming contains same language, we wouldn’t be doing furloughs. If it happens afterwards, we have to look at rules and see how it would would work. The PSP program is to protect jobs, that’s why we’re for it, why Ted has spoken directly to some “very senior” folks in Washington, other airline CEOs have done so as well.”

I think they were saying they would take the money and go with whatever strings were attached to it. They just didn’t want to say they wouldn’t furlough if they got more $$$ as it all depends on the language. What if it says “you can furlough up to 10%” well, they’re going to furlough 10% and take the money.

☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

I’m not sure. Half those would be on first year pay - on reserve - at min guarantee. That’s 4K a month. The other half would be on 2nd year pay - on reserve - at min guarantee. That’s maybe $8K a month. So average savings of $6k a month x 7 months (Oct-May) x250 pilots is about $11 million total. Maybe a little more if you downgrade 125 captains. Now I’ll grant you that’s more money than I’VE got, but it would be less than a week of operations. And by the time you figure the training costs and other monkey motion, probably not a money maker for someplace that has been as fast growing and is as junior as NK or F9.

If you thought it were going to extend past next summer, maybe then?

Why would they not if it covers 100% of last years payroll for the time frame line CARES 1.0? It would cost Spirit nothing to keep everyone

edit: I guess this was answered above me.

Why are we burning 4 mil a day with the cares?

because there is other expenses beside labor...

True, so what expense can they control? There’s more to the cost of a pilot than your hourly wage. The whole operation has to shrink for now. We will all know the rest of this story in a few weeks. The clock is ticking for the October timeline

1.5 million

My guess is that number is higher without CARES and a furloughing X number of employees. So you shrink (what do you shrink?) and still pay a certain percentage of your employees or you get CARES money and reduce service as much as permitted through CARES and the Govt picks up 100% the payroll instead of Spirt furloughing and incurring that cost and still paying all of the people left. Can’t really shrink away the airplanes except the 319s. The planes will keep coming. Only way to stop that cost is try and renegotiate or fold up the company.

The best choice if I was running the company would be to hope CARES 2.0 happens and reduce service as much as permitted via CARES and demand allows along with those non payroll operating costs and let CARES pick up 100% of the payroll.

Ok, I’m out. Best of luck to us all. As an old timer that’s seen a lot over the decades, prepare to be blind sided newcomers

Cares 1 didn’t cover 100%. It was 73% of April thru Sept 2019 actual, so for a growing company like this one was year over year, that number was really only in the high 60s. And only 70% of that number was grants, the rest was a loan, so maybe slightly less than 50% of 2020 payroll was truly “free money”. Still great and hard to turn down this time or last time, but it’s not anywhere close to 100%.

I’m sure you have and I respect your wisdom. But I don’t think many of us are going to be “blindsided”. We know the dangers that might be coming to us. If we get furloughed or downgraded, well, we were prepared for it...if not, then great, and we consider our selves lucky.

Again...I belive we are all prepared for the adversity that is coming our way.

It wasn’t 100%. That information was readily available when NK received the CARES Act funds. Disappointed in you Boy Scout. Thought you would have known that.😉

What part of LAST YEAR’s payroll was hard to read?

Without trying to turn this into a political debate,
the executive order that Trump signed, does that mean we are “good to go” or are we still waiting on congress for the payroll extension?

Up in the air. My honest opinion is that the only issue that will get sorted out is unemployment, displaced americans out of a job (tax break, eviction stalls, deferred payments etc.). I do not believe companies and PPP/PSP will get funded. Apparently I am not the only one. I just saw that bald guy from shark tank say pretty much the same thing on CNBC is what he expects.

okay so sounds like the payroll protection was not part of the executive order.

again, not turning this is to political debate. But is the executive order legitimate? In other words, is congress still ironing out a deal, or have they stopped altogether because the executive order is legitimate. Sorry google doesn’t seem to help out much.

Congress is in charge of appropriations, not the president. I don’t think it is worth the paper it’s written on according to the Constitution.

Payroll support, nor the word "airline" was mentioned in any of the executive orders.

Congress writes checks, the President can stop collections and ease restrictions.

Congess is on recess until Sept 14, although they reportedly are "close to the phone" in case a miracle in the COVID relief situation happens.

As of now, no bill. No bill, no extension of said bill.

It's all good. The heart of this very topic is totally political. A huge tug of war on whom the people will vote for depending on what happens with a CARES 2 Act. Those whom benefit will vote for whoever the strong party advocate was. Those whom dont benefit, well. It's like being in a line with others and getting picked by a team captain.

Actually that is incorrect. The HEROS ACT (HR 6800) has passed the House, to my knowledge, the Senate has failed to pass their own version where a conference committee could iron out the differences. This whole directly negotiating with the President isn’t how passing bills is supposed to work....

I did some more digging and found this.

“Still, negotiations are expected to continue this week, as even with the president’s executive orders, there remains much to be resolved.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ck-coming/amp/

Also in the article it says both side are still in agreement on the CARES act.

So looks like there is still hope after all.

The Executive order isn’t legal, but it is political. The Dems would rather walk genital deep through molten lead than to take the President to court to get his executive orders PROVIDING BENEFITS TO PEOPLE thrown out this close to an election, but neither can they let that precedent stand, which is why Schumer and Pelosi are now wheedling the Republicans to come back to the negotiating table. I think they now realize they can’t Get the $3 Trillion they wanted so they are going to see what they can get before folding on the $1 Trillion the Repubs proposed.

Senate and the House need to 1)agree on the bill 2)Sent it to POTUS for signature

before it becomes operational and legal.

HEROES Act was dead on arrival in the Senate, who countered it with their own proposal.

Under the current administration, not one Republican governor (state) or US Congress person makes a decision without "bouncing it off" the President or one of the President's trusted circle.

right or wrong, this is what is happening

at the present time, we have no bill to attach an extension to.

Flight Attendant union is not happy about this, releasing this statement:

https://www.afacwa.org/executive_ord..._save_them_psp

edit: wrong link inserted