October 1
 

What happens? Do we get some “color” from the earnings call tomorrow?

Michael Jackson comes back from the dead riding a unicorn

Snowflakes embroidered on his jacket, pot o gold in the gloved hand

Are you guys expecting furlough come October, or think you’ll be able to get through with the voluntary leaves?

Any color would be purely speculation at this point. TSA checkpoint numbers have been around 6-7% of year ago numbers, and it's anybody's guess what they'll be at the end of the summer/early fall. I personally don't see demand returning that quickly. There likely won't be a vaccine by then, the economy and many people's personal finances are in shambles, and new unemployment is at record highs. I don't agree with the hope that there is some sort of pent up demand for travel. Events are being postponed until next year or cancelled, parks and attractions are mostly closed, and I would guess a large percentage of our passengers are more worried about paying their rent or car payments than taking a weekend trip to Vegas. It's going to take some time for the dust to settle before people are willing to spend their money on vacations. I can't imagine a scenario where traveller numbers approach 2019 levels for a couple years. Fall has typically been a slower time for us anyway, and many are predicting the legacies will furlough thousands in the fall, and without a return in demand, there is no reason to believe we're going to be flying a full schedule of partially filled planes or paying crews to sit around either. The silver lining is, I do think we will be poised to capture market share on the tail end of this, and will be able to capitalize on our cost advantages and have a quicker spool up time than many due to our single-type fleet structure.

All because of a Virus.


hope all the #Stayhome, #Alonetogether#FlattenTheEconomy crowd are happy

They are. It's much easier to destroy than it is to build. Ridiculous. This is the culmination of safe spaces and participation trophies. People living in fear instead of facing challenges head on.

Plane Coffee

Still too early to tell, Spirit doesn’t have a lot of fat to cut like the legacies. But, obviously if nobody is traveling Spirit will have to furlough.

I think if Vegas, the beaches, and Disney all reopen for the tail end of summer NK could make it with no furloughs.

Could you imagine this generation on D-Day or being shelled relentlessly at Bastille? They would be asking Siri for their mommy.

My pure speculative guess is we furlough 500. I also believe if we furlough it’ll be relatively short lived, and I also believe once we make it thru this mess (and we will) and take a deep breath, then well
have to get mentally ready for the mess that could be a merger-acquisition . I believe NK will
make it thru this period .. I Believe short term this is going to be very painful. Long term I think well
be happy we were all spirit during all this. But weather it be downsizing or some sort of M/A activity, the glorious ride (fast upgrades, lots
of movement, plenty of overtime to be flown) is behind us. it’s going to look a lot different the next 5 years than the last 5 years . Conversations in the cockpit will start with. ‘remember when ........’

I've said it before and I'll say it again. This nation doesn't have the fortitude to win World War III. We won't be defeated by another country, we'll defeat ourselves with apathy. We'll lose without the enemy ever firing a shot.

Plane Coffee

I agree with this assessment. Fortitude is gone. Leadership is basically down to they good 'ol spray and pray. By the way, your signing your name wrong. It's:

Galley Café :D

'Plane Coffee' handle was taken :D

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tra...ravel-2020.amp

Obviously that’s just a small snippet and not enough to build business hopes on, but saying their isn’t pent up demand is lacking in understanding of how the average person operates these days. It’s a pop tart, I want it now, YOLO society. And many won’t let personal finances get in their way. They’ll take a weekend getaway on credit because they’ve been cooped up. Many will feel they deserve it.

I’m not saying that’s a healthy mindset or smart way to run a household or finances. But it is reality. And don’t think for a second that airlines, destinations and credit card companies won’t sweeten the pot with their “deals” to get people out and about.

Not all or even most of the 30 million unemployed number represents the average, everyday income earner, and there’s 120 million other people who are employed. Also, there’s not some absolute stratification of customers that says that Spirit will suffer due to many lower income wage earners ensuring hard financial times. People will move up and down in product based on their monetary situation. Many who might have paid a lower AA fare will be looking at rock bottom ULCC fares now. In fact, many will use the extremely low fares as part of their excuse to go out and live a little.

We are not a nation of thrift or frugality. I would tend to agree with your assessment if it were so. But it’s not.

There will be a surge in demand in my opinion. Particularly if the popular vacation getaways open back up. It probably won’t be last year’s flying levels. And I’m sure it will tail off a bit after the populace gets the need to go somewhere for 3-4 days out of its system. It might settle at 60-70% of recent normal levels. That’s enough for us to get by for the time being. Maybe even thrive if we position ourselves well.

I agree with a poster above who says we may furlough, and that it will probably be short lived. I also agree that M/A is a real concern in the next 18 months imoho. There will be a few predators circling and other reduced legacies trying to pick up capacity, and maybe increase the size of their recently trimmed fleets. Likely after shedding contracts and other agreements in bankruptcy.

It started with banning dodge ball at recess...

Patient Zero!

Plane Coffee

You don’t even have to go back that far. If you combine social media with 9/11, the aftermath would’ve been much worse. Social media has been a poison for our society.

Nail hit on the head with this post. For better or worse, we are becoming a country and society of YOLO. Spirit has done very well at capitalizing on this and this and thus, Spirit is the airline of the YOLO crowd. Needless to say, the YOLOs will be the first back in the air.

Will furloughs come Oct 1? Hopefully not but Whether you’re number 1 on the list or number 2400, live as if they will and plan accordingly. Any number of things could happen between now and then, ie, huge inroads in treatment or vaccine, a paradigm shift to open things up while protecting the most at risk, extension of the CAREs Act, etc. Conversely, we may see little improvement to the current situation. Personally I’m hopeful and optimistic for the former, but planning for the latter.

this nation couldn't even stay inside for 3 weeks with Roku, high speed internet, and DoorDash food delivery without crying life is unfair

In a small defense, when was the last time the entire country was asked to stay at home for a couple of months and minimize interaction?

Doesn't seem like Millenial's are too worried about it. Mostly 55+ and Soccer Moms.

Except that the Bastille (a building in France) was never shelled relentlessly in the Second World War, it was symbolically demolished after being stormed by a crowd of French revolutionaries in the mid 18th century. Perhaps you’re referring the the Ardenne forests outside Bastogne, in Belgium?

What uh... generation of lawmakers and politicians have shut everything down? Also is this an American pandemic or a worldwide one? I keep forgetting because apparently we’re the only country that has shut anything down. Blame social media? Scientists apparently need better Facebook memes to really get through to anyone.

I did. But I'm an eternal wallflower. This has been my paradise. The only thing I miss is the gym. And work, of course.

But then I realized those in charge didn't have a clue what they were doing and I threw their commands out the window.

It's been glorious.

Plane Coffee

I heard Spirit Managment sounds pretty upbeat about demand picking back up. I even heard with pick up some more used planes.

We are getting some of these from a defunct airline. Checkout below. I heard we are going to be using it between New York and Rome... I think we are calling it our Corona route.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_ymGS5l...d=fywq39iq8n8p

I‘m sure that’s what he meant. 🙄

Autocorrect nails us all. Some understanding of intent is needed these days.

https://i.ibb.co/PrMXDz5/88-BBD940-2...-B2445-A76.jpg

filler....

how is anyone supposed to take anything you post seriously when you sign every post with

”plane coffee” :confused::confused:

I'm just a dumb line pilot. I didn't realize we were proving Einstein's theories on these boards.

Aircraft Latte

I used to think you were a troll and couldn't stand your posts. Now I kinda still think you're a troll but absolutely look forward to your posts. Keep up the good work- BZ!

thanks!

_____________________________________

I have no doubt that in the mid 1930’s there were a bunch of middle aged guys sitting around talking about how worthless the younger generation was. If there’s one thing that’s certain in this life, it’s old people calling young people a bunch of useless softies.

As a millennial I can safely say the majority of my peers are worthless pushovers.

“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”
-Socrates, maybe.


why don’t people blame themselves for raising worthless millennial kids? Instead of blaming the kids for receiving the participation trophy, blame yourself for giving it to them. It’s not our fault you raised ****ty kids.

the important thing is that you recognize that you’re above average, just like everybody else.

“If I was on that plane with my kids, it wouldn’t have went down like it did. There would have been a lot of blood in that first-class cabin and then me saying, ‘OK, we’re going to land somewhere safely, don’tworry.”

-Mark Wahlberg.

"I don't do cardio, because real [explicitives] don't run."

-Ben Franklin

I did do two deployments to Iraq as an infantryman. So theres that.

Get off my lawn!