My opinion is F9 will be fine, and do fine. I don't think it will ultimately be nearly as large as they/you think it will be. Spirit at one point was on a trajectory to be huge and be a nationwide ULCC. The model really didn't scale as planned, and they haven't been able to stay in near as many markets, long term, as they thought, outside of MCO, LAS, FLL and other Florida. And their costs would continue to rise with longevity (relatively) and there is more new ULCC companies starting service all the time. When your one competitive advantage is being cheap, and remaining the cheapest is impossible/unsustainable over time, you aren't likely to continue your success indefinitely.

It got to the point that F9 and NK were cannibalizing each other's demand on those few markets with tremendous ULCC demand, and figured out they needed to merge to consolidate that market, as opposed to continually fighting over MCO/LAS/Florida.

We'll see, but I don't think F9 will take nearly all those deliveries in it's current form, just as NK will never take all of it's previously planned deliveries in it's current form.

Bottom line, go ahead and buy that new car, you'll be fine. Maybe cancel the order for the G650 though.

Well duh. There’s a GVII now.

How can they get worse than what we already have? Our rescheduling flow chart is a joke.

Aircraft start to age, maintenance cost goes up, including things like C checks and so on. Growth must outpace cost for a ULCC to maintain a cost advantage. It’s that simple. Although I don’t think I agree with him, Scott Kirby did just recently call the ULCC model a Ponzi scheme.

Another factor is that every legacy has now added something called basic economy to compete with ULCCs. A small portion of the cabin gets sold at an ULCC price but you get a free carry on, snack, drink, and more leg room for free. That’s got to be siphoning some target customers from ULCCs.

???

They pretty much have to exhaust all options before they can reassign someone already on a trip.

AA = reassignment is scheduling's first choice

How long have you worked at AA?

All true, and ultimately to continue the Ponzi scheme, to continue to grow faster than costs, you have to continually find new markets that support ULCC service, consistently, or if seasonal, enough seasonal markets to keep the planes busy most of the year.

I do not believe the ULCC model has shown that it can do that, in the US, on any large scale. That's why you see such dramatic changes in schedule, opening and closing of bases, moving resources around etc ... MCO/LAS have shown near year around ULCC demand, and Florida to a large degree, but otherwise the model has not scaled as planned, and with more traditional airlines offering basic economy... it's really hard to scale beyond those markets I mentioned, and no ULCC has yet to get a commanding share, or be on a trajectory to get a commanding share in any large metro areas where most of the money/travelers are.

Well it happens often here. I’ve only been a lineholder for 5 months but have been rescheduled 8 times.

Our rescheduling pay formula and rules are worse than my former regional.

Oh Bluey.....I guess we should just add a "MINT" section to our planes and call ourselves an LCC.

too damn long.