Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3717330)

And no one steps back to look at macroeconomic data to explain what’s going on. The well of free Covid money has run dry for the lower economic class, real wages have not increased, and the inflationary effects of printing another 4 trillion and Fed’s QT monetary policy is impacting them first. The trips to Orlando and NY and pairs of Jordan’s on extended unemployment are done. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, some 3.5 million business owners have been filing amended tax returns to claim several hundred billion in Employee Retention Tax Credits over the last year, which the IRS has already flagged with massive fraud. This money wasn’t used to retain employees, but the program is still touted on late night infomercials and millions raked off the top by tax prep companies that will file on your small businesses behalf. This has been a massive windfall to the upper quintile of income earners, which account for over 40% of consumer spending, which account for 70% of GDP… which coincidentally is way up largely due to all the government spending. That boost in high income earner spending accounts for the premium cabin and international ticket boon the legacies have enjoyed this past year.

This is not about a flawed ULCC model or premium cabin superiority, this is about some pretty egregious government spending and subsequent Fed actions that’s about to bite the economy pretty hard.

Originally Posted by Noisecanceller (Post 3717333)

Does any of that change the fact that we will be run out of business before the dynamics change if the merger isn’t approved? Frontier is totally screwed as well if we don’t merge w JetBlue. The two of us it’s just far to much ULCC capacity in this country. The legacies know there is blood in the water and they are attacking where they couldn’t before bc they were capacity constrained.

Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3717330)

And no one steps back to look at macroeconomic data to explain what’s going on. The well of free Covid money has run dry for the lower economic class, real wages have not increased, and the inflationary effects of printing another 4 trillion and Fed’s QT monetary policy is impacting them first. The trips to Orlando and NY and pairs of Jordan’s on extended unemployment are done. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, some 3.5 million business owners have been filing amended tax returns to claim several hundred billion in Employee Retention Tax Credits over the last year, which the IRS has already flagged with massive fraud. This money wasn’t used to retain employees, but the program is still touted on late night infomercials and millions raked off the top by tax prep companies that will file on your small businesses behalf. This has been a massive windfall to the upper quintile of income earners, which account for over 40% of consumer spending, which account for 70% of GDP… which coincidentally is way up largely due to all the government spending. That boost in high income earner spending accounts for the premium cabin and international ticket boon the legacies have enjoyed this past year.

This is not about a flawed ULCC model or premium cabin superiority, this is about some pretty egregious government spending and subsequent Fed actions that’s about to bite the economy pretty hard.

Originally Posted by YellowBus (Post 3717410)

ULCC is saturated. Frontier is in the same boat and is drastically changing its model.

https://onemileatatime.com/news/fron...form-business/

Originally Posted by YellowBus (Post 3717410)

ULCC is saturated. Frontier is in the same boat and is drastically changing its model.

https://onemileatatime.com/news/fron...form-business/

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3717401)

Now we are back to Spirit isn't profitable because COVID money is running out for their target demographic? The last time Spirit was profitable COVID had never existed. But if you're right, and it's the COVID money, that's not coming back... So let's see if I have your argument correct. There's nothing wrong with the ULCC model, it will be successful, but it's not successful now, because the COVID money ran out?

You should tell the United CEO that demand for his product is all a fraud mirage, as he has bet the company on an aircraft order book of about 1k jets (only slightly exaggerating).

Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3717501)

The Covid money masked the fact that we are in a recession that no one wants to see, and it will impact all the airlines. Furthermore you fail to show factual evidence for why the ULCC underlying business model is flawed, and instead you conflate the business model with quarterly losses. Uber Technologies posted it’s first operating profit ever last quarter, are they a failed business model?

More than one thing can be true at the same time:
1) The ULCC model works
2) Management has made some bad calls
3) Government spending has propped up different sectors of the economy

Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3717502)

The problem with that thesis is that other airlines are making money and ULCCs at nearly record levels of revenue.

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3716003)

lol the economy is fine!!! Haha that’s funny dude.

https://investorplace.com/2023/10/go...or-goog-stock/


https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/tech-layoffs

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...-san-jose.html

https://omaha.com/news/local/busines...80fccd413.html


sorry I’m only going to post a few…I think you get the picture.

this is just the beginning…the recession is coming. The big three are able to stay afloat longer because of their Europe flying and more diverse flying but they will too succumb to the economy.