Notices

Q3 2023 Earnings

Old 10-30-2023 | 05:38 PM
  #121  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,372
Likes: 141
Default

Originally Posted by Chimpy
Well, looking at the 10Q I could be wrong but.... it looks like the "operation only lost" $63,000,000 in the first 9 months of the year. They took a write off to purchase $150,000,00.00 of ground equipment, and wrote off $100,000,000 in deferred heavy mx (whatever that means). Total wages & Salaries went up by 30% but ASMs only went up by 15%. They Sold 100M worth of owned AC but spent $600M more on A/C rent. Seems like not being able to Staff, (too little, too late contract cycle wise) not expanding training dept quickly enough, displacing people to staff new bases (causing more attrition) which prevented us from flying the A/C we already had and now we have this Pratt Issue that is further going to hurt. It seems like the ULCC Model is losing some money, but the real issue is mishandling of crew & Aircraft capacity?.... I dunno, could be way off but seems like maybe it's more of a management related issue than Business model?
A lot of those decisions were made years ago by the genius that thought firing all the gate agents and ground staff and outsourcing was a good idea. Looked good on a spreadsheet but now you have a bunch of people that literally make the operation function and none of them have skin in the game.

This is fundamentally why Southwest was able to scale with at the time was a far inferior product. Employee buy in goes a long way. The employees there made that place an efficiency machine that was able keep people happy and get them where they wanted to go. We don’t do that. We get them there sometimes and late usually while ****ing them off in the process. Can’t scale without repeat business. Only so much low hanging fruit and we’ve picked it all.

Look at the top two in charge and their history. Merger, bankruptcy, strike, scabs, toxic work environments. Should we be surprised?
Reply
Old 10-30-2023 | 06:05 PM
  #122  
The REAL Bluedriver
 
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Default

Originally Posted by Chimpy
Well, looking at the 10Q I could be wrong but.... it looks like the "operation only lost" $63,000,000 in the first 9 months of the year. They took a write off to purchase $150,000,00.00 of ground equipment, and wrote off $100,000,000 in deferred heavy mx (whatever that means). Total wages & Salaries went up by 30% but ASMs only went up by 15%. They Sold 100M worth of owned AC but spent $600M more on A/C rent. Seems like not being able to Staff, (too little, too late contract cycle wise) not expanding training dept quickly enough, displacing people to staff new bases (causing more attrition) which prevented us from flying the A/C we already had and now we have this Pratt Issue that is further going to hurt. It seems like the ULCC Model is losing some money, but the real issue is mishandling of crew & Aircraft capacity?.... I dunno, could be way off but seems like maybe it's more of a management related issue than Business model?
It's clear that both NK and F9 are having a demand problem, both having to heavily discount fares recently because bookings are down. When you have a lack of demand, putting more seats and jets in the air will only make it worse.
Reply
Old 10-30-2023 | 06:38 PM
  #123  
The REAL Bluedriver
 
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Default

Originally Posted by Chimpy
Well, looking at the 10Q I could be wrong but.... it looks like the "operation only lost" $63,000,000 in the first 9 months of the year. They took a write off to purchase $150,000,00.00 of ground equipment, and wrote off $100,000,000 in deferred heavy mx (whatever that means). Total wages & Salaries went up by 30% but ASMs only went up by 15%. They Sold 100M worth of owned AC but spent $600M more on A/C rent. Seems like not being able to Staff, (too little, too late contract cycle wise) not expanding training dept quickly enough, displacing people to staff new bases (causing more attrition) which prevented us from flying the A/C we already had and now we have this Pratt Issue that is further going to hurt. It seems like the ULCC Model is losing some money, but the real issue is mishandling of crew & Aircraft capacity?.... I dunno, could be way off but seems like maybe it's more of a management related issue than Business model?
I found this quoted on another message board, not sure the source:

"The culprit according to Spirit is “softer demand for our product and discounted fares in our markets.” I will actually touch on that more tomorrow when I look at Frontier, but suffice it to say for now that there is a ton of capacity in Las Vegas and Florida where the ultra low cost carriers are concentrated, and demand is just not there to support it all.

In Q3, Spirit’s unit revenue plunged 17.4 percent to 9.14 cents vs last year. Overall total revenue per passenger dropped 13.5 percent, but it was only that good because ancillary revenue stayed fairly flat. Actual fare revenue dropped a shocking 27.8 percent year-over-year. As you’ll see tomorrow, this impacts Frontier as well, but the difference is that Frontier says it sees things stabilizing. Spirit says otherwise. We continue to see discounted fares for travel booked through the pre-Thanksgiving period. And, unfortunately, we have not seen the anticipated return to a normal demand and pricing environment for the peak holiday periods."

Having more jets and seats in the air will definitely not help the current ULCC situation.
Reply
Old 10-30-2023 | 07:02 PM
  #124  
Chimpy's Avatar
Line Holder
 
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,877
Likes: 199
Default

Originally Posted by Bluedriver
I found this quoted on another message board, not sure the source:

"The culprit according to Spirit is “softer demand for our product and discounted fares in our markets.” I will actually touch on that more tomorrow when I look at Frontier, but suffice it to say for now that there is a ton of capacity in Las Vegas and Florida where the ultra low cost carriers are concentrated, and demand is just not there to support it all.

In Q3, Spirit’s unit revenue plunged 17.4 percent to 9.14 cents vs last year. Overall total revenue per passenger dropped 13.5 percent, but it was only that good because ancillary revenue stayed fairly flat. Actual fare revenue dropped a shocking 27.8 percent year-over-year. As you’ll see tomorrow, this impacts Frontier as well, but the difference is that Frontier says it sees things stabilizing. Spirit says otherwise. We continue to see discounted fares for travel booked through the pre-Thanksgiving period. And, unfortunately, we have not seen the anticipated return to a normal demand and pricing environment for the peak holiday periods."

Having more jets and seats in the air will definitely not help the current ULCC situation.
Seems like the perfect rebuttal to the DOJ complaint then, the model is no longer sustainable and blocking the merger will ultimately lead to BK and Legacies becoming even more dominant.
Reply
Old 10-30-2023 | 07:18 PM
  #125  
RemoveB4flght's Avatar
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 770
Likes: 0
Default

Originally Posted by Bluedriver
I found this quoted on another message board, not sure the source:

"The culprit according to Spirit is “softer demand for our product and discounted fares in our markets.” I will actually touch on that more tomorrow when I look at Frontier, but suffice it to say for now that there is a ton of capacity in Las Vegas and Florida where the ultra low cost carriers are concentrated, and demand is just not there to support it all.

In Q3, Spirit’s unit revenue plunged 17.4 percent to 9.14 cents vs last year. Overall total revenue per passenger dropped 13.5 percent, but it was only that good because ancillary revenue stayed fairly flat. Actual fare revenue dropped a shocking 27.8 percent year-over-year. As you’ll see tomorrow, this impacts Frontier as well, but the difference is that Frontier says it sees things stabilizing. Spirit says otherwise. We continue to see discounted fares for travel booked through the pre-Thanksgiving period. And, unfortunately, we have not seen the anticipated return to a normal demand and pricing environment for the peak holiday periods."

Having more jets and seats in the air will definitely not help the current ULCC situation.
OMG that definitely means the ULCC model is flawed and unscalable
Reply
Old 10-30-2023 | 07:31 PM
  #126  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,372
Likes: 141
Default

Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght
OMG that definitely means the ULCC model is flawed and unscalable

Why are you so drunk on the ULCC koolaide? It’s a garbage product that customers love to hate as much as the DMV. Its success depends upon finding an endless number of passengers to anger and you and every other employee making less than their peers. It’s in the definition. Ultra Low Cost. Airbus isn’t cutting is a deal. The oil company isn’t cutting us a deal. That cost savings only comes in the form of efficiency (southwest) but we have incompetent management, and savings on labor.
Reply
Old 10-31-2023 | 04:51 AM
  #127  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 1,163
Likes: 36
Default

Originally Posted by Bluedriver
I found this quoted on another message board, not sure the source:

"The culprit according to Spirit is “softer demand for our product and discounted fares in our markets.” I will actually touch on that more tomorrow when I look at Frontier, but suffice it to say for now that there is a ton of capacity in Las Vegas and Florida where the ultra low cost carriers are concentrated, and demand is just not there to support it all.

In Q3, Spirit’s unit revenue plunged 17.4 percent to 9.14 cents vs last year. Overall total revenue per passenger dropped 13.5 percent, but it was only that good because ancillary revenue stayed fairly flat. Actual fare revenue dropped a shocking 27.8 percent year-over-year. As you’ll see tomorrow, this impacts Frontier as well, but the difference is that Frontier says it sees things stabilizing. Spirit says otherwise. We continue to see discounted fares for travel booked through the pre-Thanksgiving period. And, unfortunately, we have not seen the anticipated return to a normal demand and pricing environment for the peak holiday periods."

Having more jets and seats in the air will definitely not help the current ULCC situation.
Here's the source


https://crankyflier.com/2023/10/30/a...1ifL71HbCFYJd0
Reply
Old 10-31-2023 | 05:02 AM
  #128  
The REAL Bluedriver
 
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Default

Originally Posted by Bgood
Thanks Bgood...
Reply
Old 10-31-2023 | 05:26 AM
  #129  
BananaHammock's Avatar
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Apr 2022
Posts: 162
Likes: 0
Default

Originally Posted by Noisecanceller
A lot of those decisions were made years ago by the genius that thought firing all the gate agents and ground staff and outsourcing was a good idea. Looked good on a spreadsheet but now you have a bunch of people that literally make the operation function and none of them have skin in the game.
Nothing like setwa the minute the timer goes off just to sit at the gate for 10 minutes waiting on parking crew...
Reply
Old 10-31-2023 | 05:44 AM
  #130  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 759
Likes: 52
Default

Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Apples and oranges. Different challenges.
Doesn't matter if it's for different reasons if neither company can come close to making a profit. Now you are going to merge with billions in merger expenses ?? How on earth do you think this model will make money?? A giant JetBlue that hasn't been profitable for a long time.
Reply
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
1st Supersonic
Atlas/Polar
20693
04-29-2026 07:35 AM
serce
Major
894
04-07-2021 06:56 PM
krudawg
United
12
01-24-2018 06:41 PM
Timeoff2fish
Cargo
9
07-26-2010 05:13 PM
Sasquatch
Cargo
0
06-21-2006 08:45 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices