Some things become a self fulfilling prophecy. Junior attrition was a problem even before the failure of the merger and the P&W engine problems. And with the hiring wave continuing apace in the legacies (UA is now giving out NB CA slots in intro, and they are going junior - indeed, some of their most junior are being forced into them if they have the requisite 121 time) that may well move up into more of our junior CAs who are looking at years of stagnation anyway and realistically, if furloughs happen might well be seeing downgrades. And that alone may FORCE the more junior FOs (who have little seniority to lose anyway) to start looking for elsewhere to go. No doubt P&W will be required to try to make the company whole economically for the downtime but that's still flying that isn't happening and little inducement to stay. It's also clear that it didn't take NK to go to JetBlue to undercut the ULCC model, the Big Three are now doing that quite effectively with their "basic economy" fares today.

If the attrition becomes great enough, or if the out of service aircraft become great enough to furlough/downgrade, the loss of pilots in this hiring environment could well cause a death spiral into bankruptcy.

Smooth move, judge...

For any of you guys applying at American,

have they changed that website in the last couple of years that you apply at? Can’t seem to find the original website. also, do you know if you still have to do the video questions you submit first before you do the in person interview?

Today.

xxxxxx

you are right , better to stay and end up making $0.00 without a job in the near future . Smart logic to you .

We've seen this dynamic throughout the history of commercial aviation. The first ones out of a shrinking/failing carrier are typically the most junior. In a cruel twist of fate they end up very senior to the last ones out. It completely flips the seniority list...

I know guys who left America West for American and US Airways. Whoops!

Not what I was saying dumbazz but you're a genius. I personally recommend taking off.

Or Alaska pilots who left for Hawaiian. At least they’ll be fenced in on widebody or one leg flying.

You’re not missing anything and have hit all the key points I find alarming. The truth is no one knows how NK or the rest of the industry will look in the next decade. I’ve been doing this job for more than two decades and it looks completely different then when I started.

Make a decision based on the knowledge you have and go with it. Don’t worry about what everyone else is doing. Half these guys, especially captains that say they’re leaving are blowing smoke. We all hear about their lifestyles and no way they can take the pay cut or go back to the right seat.

Until the past year, the thought of leaving never crossed my mind. I love the guys we fly with and schedule flexibility is second to none. Our leaders have made moves like base reductions and flip flop merger decisions have made me question this decision. Is leaving the correction decision, idk ask me when I retire.

Roughly 48,000 legacy pilots. Not one of them has applied to Spirit. Can they all be wrong?