Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3777158)

they did - in second quarter last year. But no one wants to remember that. Yes spirit showed a profit Q2 last year, but by Q3, spirit was going into a merger where making money wasn’t going to help get the merger passed. Then all of
a sudden; spirits doing poorly. Do I think spirit is in perfect shape? No! But let’s give credit where it’s due.

Originally Posted by symbian simian (Post 3776863)

The thing is, it is hard to figure out...
Yes, we have a clearly defined number of crews per plane. And you can calculate some of the cost of that by adding all the pilot slaries together. But there is a lot of other cost, like support staff, training staff, office building, Simulator time, that does not decrease if you furlough crews. And we would not furlough crews, we would furlough junior FOs, so very little cost savings. One of the biggest reasons there weren't more furloughs during the pandemic (outside of gov cheeze) was that the cost to retrain everyone was higher than to offer over 50% pay for people to sit home.

Napkin math:
Furlough 25%, so 1000 on 1st&2nd year pay, downgrade 500 on 5th year pay would save about $180M/yr or $45M/Q. And it would mean 30 aircraft not staffed, but they have no engines anyway...
Sounds great. But NK net loss last Q was over $180M, so you would have to furlough the other 75% of the pilots as well to save enough........ (yes, I know, furloughing the senior would save more)

(What I do find interesting is that the whole strategy of NK was always been based on continued growth. And anytime the growth would slow down the analytst would be worried, and pushed for growth. And now all the analytsts are saying that the ULCC market is only so big, and we can't be profitable at our size. And they have known about basic economy from the legacies forever, and/or should have known the effects of that.)

Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3777209)

Hate to give thread any validity, but I believe the math you did was factored wrong. The original post said 25% of FOs will be furloughed, not 25% of the company. There are about 1,833 FOs, 25% of that would be 458. If you furlough 1000 FOs, you're losing more than half of the FOs on property lol. And then even with a 10% downgrade of CAs, there will be a significant imbalance of CAs to FOs where CAs largely outnumber the FOs.

So I think the numbers we're looking at is between 400-500 FOs to be furloughed and 170 CAs to be downgraded if this post renders true.

Originally Posted by GhostKhost (Post 3777250)

400 or so first year is 72x97x400 = 2.793M

100 second year 72x142x100 = 1.022M

100 four year captains 72x109x100= .785M

70 five year captains 72x109x70= .550M

5.150M of straight hourly rate cost savings per month. No idea what they’d save on taxes, benefits, and the individual cost to re qual furloughed pilots later down the road to weigh against.

Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 (Post 3777267)

why did you count 4 and 5 year captains at 109?

My basic bath shows them saving ballpark 70 million a year with 400 less FO seats and 125 less CA seats . A not insignificant number and one the company I’m sure is considering. hope it never comes to that. Contract I think stipulates they have to ask for voluntary furloughs before involuntary. So if we get an email asking guys to leave early , or who may wanna take
some time off unpaid (nobody) then we know what the next move is gonna be. Let’s hope that Email doesn’t come.

Originally Posted by GhostKhost (Post 3777277)

Captains going back to FO rates.

Originally Posted by PossibleDeviation (Post 3777288)

But 4th and 5th year FO rates are at 175-180/hr.