Per the 1st quarter financial report; Spirit owned 63 aircraft, only 12 of which are unencumbered. Make of that what you will.

 

At this cash burn rate they won't last until 2025. Q3 might be the worst in company history. Free drinks and snacks plan is lackluster at best. Spending even more cash marketing this 2.0 will erode their precarious cash position even further.

Remember the Q2 postive margin prediction they made?

 

Interesting concept, and managers might even have role-played such ideas but I doubt it would happen. I think it's too complicated with scope and NB airplanes... in order to SLI the pilots you'd need to put their planes on the certificate, but legacy scope probably doesn't allow that at all.

??? Sure they would, just a cost of doing (merger) business. AS and HA are trying real hard to merge right now, and the pilots are spending a lot of time talking (and worrying) about the SLI. Our MECs think it's a real thing, although Biden/DOJ still get a vote.

 

my 10000 shares think something like this.

 

Two pilots are worried about the HA + AK SLI. The rest of us understand its ALPA + ALPA and will get on with our lives.

As for Spirit i do think a bit of a change in the operation to include more revenue options (first classish) and they can be bought successfully by anyone. Even SWA sees the benefit to change their operation. Spirit better withhin a week.

 

All this legacy buying Spirit talk was just hypothitical and most likely wont happen, but I see the ULCC model is going away. Companies will adjust. F9 is already moving away from it, Spirit will as well. Spirit will probably have new financing "contingent" to a new model change to show they will beable to bring in new/higher revenues that will beable to service the new longterm debt. Let's face it, thats how business and the financial world works (kick the can down the road with new debt) The old creditor will get paid off with a new creditor and on we move until new debt is acquired 5-7yrs from now. At the end of the day, Spirit will stick around.. worse case scenario is Chapt 11, reorganize and come out better. But, a good chance it wont go Chapt 11 either if they get new financing with a new business model. Spirit will be exiting the ULCC model. Also a good thing for new contract negotiations for the future if Spirit exits the ULCC model with a much higher revenue stream... Legacy rates wont be too far off if this happens What should we call the new Spirit 1st class cabin??

 

Shanty town?

 

Thats all good except the legacy’s already have a head start on that business model and will match you until the new Spirit can’t go on. The issue is that ULCCs are just not ultra low cost anymore. Either you lower costs by BK and stay as you are or that’s it.

 

I don't think that the new Spirit, whatever it ends up being, will be competing agains the legacies as a standalone for very long. It's most likely just maneuvering for a merger to create a larger airline that can better compete.

 

The merger will be with JB, and Ted I’ll be the CEO. You can look at JBs current CEO just as you should be looking at Kamala, they’re transitional place holders for real manly leadership.