And we will never know. I do know I have a better chance bringing home a girl who is a 6 from the bar, versus an 8.

Better deal? Sure. More obstacles as said by almost everyone besides and including Ted, yes. Large shareholders rolled the dice for the larger payday, and it failed and they take the L on this.

The DOJ is a joke, I wanted JBLU over F9, but also believe if it had stayed NK F9, we would have prevailed with the merger, lawsuit or not.

But we will never know.

 

I personally thought any merger was a lock and the DOJ was just an act and clearly any judge with any kind of sense can see the big three dominance, how they got there, and how they can crush or marginalize any competitors as they see fit. Clearly the merger of smaller players that wouldn’t even come close to the big 4 in size could not be seen as anticompetitive. Of course the last 4 years I’ve been living in bazarro world so what did I expect.

 

My biggest concern about bravo is this prepackaged chapter 11 is only dealing with a portion of spirits total debt and obligations. NK will still be paying full price for aircraft leases and aircraft debt payments. If the traveling public doesn't buy into the new model quickly why would revenues suddenly be enough to cover operating expenses that haven't changed?

 

I think it’s about 2 separate issues, but not necessarily exclusive.

The prepackaged chapter 11 was for debt coming due. They don’t not have the money to pay off the billion plus coming due, hence the filing. That was a way to deal with a “tomorrow problem”

Now if the product they produce, Bravo or whatever you want to call it doesn’t resonate and allow profit, then that’s the ball game without a merger. That’s todays problem.

But your correct that while everyone is talking about the Ch11 and the bonds, if they can’t make money on the product they are selling, that’s it.

 

This is the key slide. It shows the pivot from $50-$150 fares to $200-$400 fares.

If you do a little math, they are looking to dump $1 billion in revenue from their current customer base and pick up $1.5 billion from the new upmarket crowd.

Put another way, they're basically looking to totally abandon their current customers and swap for a totally new group of consumers.

 

The debt service on those bonds was not a small amount of money every month. That’s now half gone. The principle being due in September wasn’t an option. Ain’t got it period.

If they want to start negotiating with everyone else given the demand for aircraft around the world then the airline is done. Leaseholders can make more than we are already paying them so they sure aren’t going to take anything less and would probably be happy to repo their asset and make more on it elsewhere. Majority of the fleet is leased so that alone would kill it. The planes we have debt on same story. Maybe the court could assist in restructuring some of that debt but it would not be significant is my guess. Those banks would also be just fine repoing their asset as well.

We also needed cash according to the bravo plan before profits could be realized and no one was going to give it to us so the bond holders did as part of the deal for their equity.

The brovo plan looks doable if we seriously double down on customer service to change our image and fire all the like minded employees and contractors that can’t crack a smile and like to tell their coworkers to suck a dick on camera in public. The absolute ghetto hiring practices need to change if they want brovo to work.

Most likely this is a stay of execution backed by our largest debt holders until we can make another merger happen so they can cash out.

The Biden administration put a huge delay in this plan with their BS and cost a lot of union jobs in the process. Market disrupters have to have an exit at some point. The entire point of starting a business is to sell it one day. What do they think Spirit exists for?

 

Yup. The literally have it printed on the slide.

So much for Judge Young’s plan for low fare travel for low fare guests. This one’s for you

 

I don't see it working....... but time will tell.

 

I personally don’t see the harm and swapping out the dollar general and Walmart crowd for the target crowd. After all the dollar general crowd isn’t paying the bills. Doing the same thing and expecting different outcomes is how we got here.

 

Bad analogy; Target badly missed their quarter and their share has actually shifted to Walmart, which has up scaled their products while still keeping prices low. Then there's Amazon and Costco taking share too...
Sorry, I watch too much CNBC...