Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

I’d also add one caveat: American Airlines has now entered the picture, and although my theory still points to Spirit positioning itself for a merger with Southwest, I wouldn’t rule out a bidding war between Southwest and American if regulators gave both of them the green light to pursue a deal. I still think Southwest is the more likely buyer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if American takes a run at Spirit as well, even if the odds of that happening are lower.

Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

CORRECT!!!

You’ll have to dig into the details yourself, but here’s the framework my theory is built on:

Southwest has major near‑term international expansion goals, but they don’t have the aircraft or pilot capacity to execute them on their own.

Southwest has publicly acknowledged they’re evaluating Airbus — something that would’ve been unthinkable a year ago. They can’t rely on Boeing to meet their needs anymore, and they’ve openly said they’re ready to diversify their fleet.

Southwest has been buying back its own shares, which is usually a sign of confidence before a strategic move.

They completed a $1.5B debt offering in November 2025, giving them fresh capital and balance‑sheet flexibility.

A Southwest union rep ran a public poll earlier this year asking which airline the company should buy or merge with — and Spirit was one of the options.

Southwest union leaders signed NDAs in 2024 related to merger and acquisition planning.

Southwest has been reshaping its business model in ways that look a lot like Spirit’s updated model.

Elliott Management’s involvement adds another layer, given their history of pushing for consolidation and strategic transactions.

Spirit is divesting routes that overlap with Southwest more aggressively than with any other competitor. The latest exits include:

PHX — Southwest fortress

STL — Southwest fortress

MKE — Southwest stronghold

ROC — Southwest presence

Spirit is shrinking its footprint by disposing of aircraft, reducing ASMs and overall scale — a move that conveniently reduces regulatory friction for a buyer.

There have been multiple sightings of Southwest personnel at Spirit’s Texas hangars.

Expense reports show Spirit’s bankruptcy advisors traveling to DFW, which is Southwest’s home turf.

Spirit hired Amazon’s former fleet and network architect — someone with deep experience in large‑scale logistics integration.

Southwest has made no public comments about Spirit’s bankruptcy, which is unusual given the industry implications.

The new administration is more open to consolidation, especially in cases where a merger can be framed as stabilizing capacity.

The bankruptcy structure itself makes a merger legally defensible in ways that weren’t possible before.

And there are several other smaller signals pointing in the same direction.

Originally Posted by StoneQOLdCrazy

nice AI post

Originally Posted by StoneQOLdCrazy

nice AI post

Originally Posted by checkgear

Almost everything he posts that’s more than 2 sentences is AI. Dudes obviously mentally challenged to not be able to write his own thoughts and opinions himself.

Originally Posted by DogPit

American wanted gates, they got gates. The end!

Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

Sorry, that’s my work and not AI.

Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

PHX — Southwest fortress

Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

Southwest has been buying back its own shares, which is usually a sign of confidence before a strategic move.

Originally Posted by FlyFlorida2025

I am sorry that you don’t appreciate my contributions, but some people do. Everything I’ve posted is my own analysis based on hours of research, and I enjoy sharing it with other people.