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Old Today | 10:40 AM
  #471  
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Originally Posted by BenS
An oversupply of labor to available jobs is a downward pressure on wages....
In a non-unionized market, yes. Delta pilots ain't gonna take no pay cut due to 1500 spirit pilots on the street
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Old Today | 10:42 AM
  #472  
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Originally Posted by MikeOxlong
Break even on a $500 million dollar loan/bailout is just about 2 years. NK employees pay roughly $225 million a year in income tax.
Employees will go somewhere else and pay the same taxes.
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Old Today | 10:44 AM
  #473  
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Originally Posted by BenS
Well since all these threads have totally derailed.. why not add my tirade.. really though, I get forums are no place for an attempt at a thoughtful response, so here goes nothing...

Obviously two things are being looked at so wrong here. First the idea that the vote coming to Congress is political, or ideological.. is honestly a joke.. it's money.. like all things money.. it's a cost/benefit analysis.. we've learned how to quantify the direct costs of an airline shutting down (lost ticket sales, lost tourism, lost tax revenues, lost unemployment insurance funds, and on and on).. Ted Cruz and his comments, great example.. he may ideologically not support government assistance, but when his vote comes to it, his district alone probably has $500mil+ in direct economic damage, if he doesn't ultimately vote for it. It's like the bank bailouts of 2008, no ideology supported the actions, yet they happened, why? Because the costs of doing nothing exceeded the costs of the bailout..

But secondly, man, I'm appalled at the number of people, supposedly fellow airline crews, almost excited at the thought of Spirit shutting down.. Obviously if you wake up in the morning, working for another airline, and feel the need to log into a forum and go to a Spirit thread so you can have a laugh at celebrating this place closing... You are most definitely saying something about who you are, deep down in your soul.. those who've done clearly need professional help.. there are scumbags on this earth, sure, but they're generally scavenging for their own benefit, but for you to have a need to kick others in the teeth so you feel better about your pathetic existence?? That places you beneath the scum of the earth..

But anyways, what benefit do you people think you'll see to your careers if Spirit should liquidate? Does that have an upward or downward pressure on your future wages? Downward, obviously... And what about your airlines ability to access future credit? And service debt? If liquidity seizes after Spirit liquidates, how does that help your career? If Spirit liquidated, say, a month ago, does anyone here think JB gets that $500mil line of credit they just got? So what happens to every JB pilot right now if Spirit had liquidated? Credit seizes, bankruptcy, furloughs, pay concessions.. yep.. all on the table if YOUR airline loses access to credit because Spirit liquidated.. so what the hell are some of you guys so happy about? That your airline might get a few extra ticket sales? I guarantee you the cost your career will pay, should a downward spiral in the industry start with liquidation of Spirit, I guarantee some of you (who don't even work for Spirit) will absolutely pay way more to your career than you gain when your airline sells a few extra tickets..

But alas, some of you really need to study 2008, learn from the children of 08.. downward spirals feed themselves, and much like how the collapse of Lehman Bothers about destroyed the entire banking system (even banks nowhere near related to them), the collapse of an airline far removed from your career can still have immense, adverse results, on your career progression..

So think long and hard about who you are as a person before you find happiness in the thought of Spirit collapsing.. that comment is to every Congressman about to vote on Spirit, as well as every fellow flight crew member who doesn't work for Spirit.. celebrating the demise of a fellow airline will come with a price you might pay, you just don't know what that price will be yet...

WTF?! The whole industry fails if Spirit doesn’t get a bailout? JBs credit seizes?! This is not 2008 and to compare it to that is just dumb. You’re gonna need to do some more studying there bud
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Old Today | 11:08 AM
  #474  
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Originally Posted by BenS
Well since all these threads have totally derailed.. why not add my tirade.. really though, I get forums are no place for an attempt at a thoughtful response, so here goes nothing...

Obviously two things are being looked at so wrong here. First the idea that the vote coming to Congress is political, or ideological.. is honestly a joke.. it's money.. like all things money.. it's a cost/benefit analysis.. we've learned how to quantify the direct costs of an airline shutting down (lost ticket sales, lost tourism, lost tax revenues, lost unemployment insurance funds, and on and on).. Ted Cruz and his comments, great example.. he may ideologically not support government assistance, but when his vote comes to it, his district alone probably has $500mil+ in direct economic damage, if he doesn't ultimately vote for it. It's like the bank bailouts of 2008, no ideology supported the actions, yet they happened, why? Because the costs of doing nothing exceeded the costs of the bailout..

But secondly, man, I'm appalled at the number of people, supposedly fellow airline crews, almost excited at the thought of Spirit shutting down.. Obviously if you wake up in the morning, working for another airline, and feel the need to log into a forum and go to a Spirit thread so you can have a laugh at celebrating this place closing... You are most definitely saying something about who you are, deep down in your soul.. those who've done clearly need professional help.. there are scumbags on this earth, sure, but they're generally scavenging for their own benefit, but for you to have a need to kick others in the teeth so you feel better about your pathetic existence?? That places you beneath the scum of the earth..

But anyways, what benefit do you people think you'll see to your careers if Spirit should liquidate? Does that have an upward or downward pressure on your future wages? Downward, obviously... And what about your airlines ability to access future credit? And service debt? If liquidity seizes after Spirit liquidates, how does that help your career? If Spirit liquidated, say, a month ago, does anyone here think JB gets that $500mil line of credit they just got? So what happens to every JB pilot right now if Spirit had liquidated? Credit seizes, bankruptcy, furloughs, pay concessions.. yep.. all on the table if YOUR airline loses access to credit because Spirit liquidated.. so what the hell are some of you guys so happy about? That your airline might get a few extra ticket sales? I guarantee you the cost your career will pay, should a downward spiral in the industry start with liquidation of Spirit, I guarantee some of you (who don't even work for Spirit) will absolutely pay way more to your career than you gain when your airline sells a few extra tickets..

But alas, some of you really need to study 2008, learn from the children of 08.. downward spirals feed themselves, and much like how the collapse of Lehman Bothers about destroyed the entire banking system (even banks nowhere near related to them), the collapse of an airline far removed from your career can still have immense, adverse results, on your career progression..

So think long and hard about who you are as a person before you find happiness in the thought of Spirit collapsing.. that comment is to every Congressman about to vote on Spirit, as well as every fellow flight crew member who doesn't work for Spirit.. celebrating the demise of a fellow airline will come with a price you might pay, you just don't know what that price will be yet...
This is not personal but I think you’re not in touch what the loss of a 75 airplane airline will do to the industry. Spirit is minuscule in the big picture, less than 2% market share. The void will be filled in 2 seconds by other airlines. No one is celebrating Spirit’s demise.Tax payers shouldn't be on the hook for 500M to bail out a mismanaged company with a flawed business model, period.
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Old Today | 11:30 AM
  #475  
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Originally Posted by AirportJunkie
WTF?! The whole industry fails if Spirit doesn’t get a bailout? JBs credit seizes?! This is not 2008 and to compare it to that is just dumb. You’re gonna need to do some more studying there bud
So your contention is that creditors do NOT price in broader market risk when negotiating loan terms??? Interesting... And you call me dumb...

It's not 2008?? So the auto loan bailouts of 08 were because domestic auto manufacturing is MORE important to commerce and economic activity of the US than the domestic airline industry??

All around interesting points you make.. 🤔
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Old Today | 11:34 AM
  #476  
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Originally Posted by BenS
So your contention is that creditors do NOT price in broader market risk when negotiating loan terms??? Interesting... And you call me dumb...

It's not 2008?? So the auto loan bailouts of 08 were because domestic auto manufacturing is MORE important to commerce and economic activity of the US than the domestic airline industry??

All around interesting points you make.. 🤔
yes, the auto industry is waaay more important
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Old Today | 11:49 AM
  #477  
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Originally Posted by BenS
An oversupply of labor to available jobs is a downward pressure on wages....
Is it really an oversupply. The legacy and regionals could absorb all the NK pilots with planned hiring. However the downward pressure on wages will be the lower margins of the war effects and overall economic uncertainty.

I don’t root for spirits demise but the predict the fall of airline travel and further job losses on spirit being gone is unrealistic. Also I don’t think Cruz’s district alone would see 500 million impact from spirit’s demise. Show the math on that one please.

Finally what changes with a 500 million dollar investment? Does spirit cut deeper to make themselves smaller? That results in job losses also but as long as it doesn’t get you then that okay? The business fundamentals of spirit don’t work. While it may have in the past, the other carriers adapted while spirit didn’t. It’s a business model problem at spirit not a fuel problem. Fuel has only accelerated the fall.
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Old Today | 12:13 PM
  #478  
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Originally Posted by Midsomer
Finally what changes with a 500 million dollar investment? Does spirit cut deeper to make themselves smaller? That results in job losses also but as long as it doesn’t get you then that okay? The business fundamentals of spirit don’t work. While it may have in the past, the other carriers adapted while spirit didn’t. It’s a business model problem at spirit not a fuel problem. Fuel has only accelerated the fall.
Spirit has a $450M DIP financing repayment due in July. This lets them pay that off and it they can get to profitability by July lets them possibly exit BK. But its not like they just get to keep $500M to keep burning and not pay back the DIP loans.
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Old Today | 12:15 PM
  #479  
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Originally Posted by Midsomer
Is it really an oversupply. The legacy and regionals could absorb all the NK pilots with planned hiring. However the downward pressure on wages will be the lower margins of the war effects and overall economic uncertainty.

I don’t root for spirits demise but the predict the fall of airline travel and further job losses on spirit being gone is unrealistic. Also I don’t think Cruz’s district alone would see 500 million impact from spirit’s demise. Show the math on that one please.

Finally what changes with a 500 million dollar investment? Does spirit cut deeper to make themselves smaller? That results in job losses also but as long as it doesn’t get you then that okay? The business fundamentals of spirit don’t work. While it may have in the past, the other carriers adapted while spirit didn’t. It’s a business model problem at spirit not a fuel problem. Fuel has only accelerated the fall.
My reply was in reply to a guy who said Spirit liquidating won't affect his paycheck.. sure there's a million economic dynamics that go into whether UAs hiring went down this year because of reason X or Y or Z.. all conjecture is fair. But my question that was "does Spirit liquidating have an upward or downward pressure on wages?", the reply was "it won't affect mine".. and maybe your points are valid, maybe Spirit will liquidate and the job market won't destabilize.. but the point is, any excess of pilots looking for a job, without an equivalent excess of jobs.. is a downward pressure on wages.. so no, celebrating Spirits demise because you think it's good for your seniority or something, does ignore the total pressures that puts on the job market, even if it is just 2,000 pilots.. (then add in if creditors cut off high risk airlines right now, that's when things spiral where Avelo and Breeze lose the ability to get any funding to continue operations, F9 and JB spiral into furloughing 50%, Allegiant and Sun Country, Alaska, hell even AA and WN, need access to credit right now).. so am I engaging in hyperbole? Perhaps.. perhaps exaggerating broader market risk... But what if it does happen?? You just say "woops, cheered for the wrong team" from the furlough line?? Just saying.. it's a low risk, sure, but a risk that should be acknowledged..

As for the math about Ted Cruz's district alone could suffer $500mil+ in damages if Spirit liquidates? Sure, also hyperbole, perhaps.. I have no way of knowing how many Spirit pilots, gate agents, baggage handlers, etc live in his district.. but once unemployed, none of them pay federal/state/local income taxes, and all of them collect unemployment (a budget positive item becomes budget negative).. then take the number of flights Spirit operates near his district, times 176 seats, times 80-90% load factor.. and that's the number of people not flying to his district on any given day.. multiply that number by what the average tourist spends when visiting his district (lodging, food, entertainment, business, and commerce).. that's a dollar amount that Spirit brings no longer visiting his district.. "oh but pax will fly someone else".. if his home airport has an airline with seats to spare to bring them.. and then his constituents that will travel in the future, will spend 50-100% more on their tickets (based on the studies of Den, Phx, Msp) and that's hundreds of dollars times however many airline travellers live in his district, that go from being spent on local things to spending on necessary air travel..

So yes, his district is halfway between SAT and AUS, and it's not inconceivable to see hundreds of millions of dollars leave (or not come) to his district because of the demise of Spirit airlines...
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Old Today | 12:16 PM
  #480  
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Spirit has a $450M DIP financing repayment due in July. This lets them pay that off and it they can get to profitability by July lets them possibly exit BK. But it’ not like they just get to keep $500M to keep burning and not pay back the DIP loans.
so Spirits been losing money for 61 months (to be fair first 2 years of Covid everyone was losing money) and you think in 2 months by July they can turn it around?
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